How Special is Ezekiel?

aikemirv

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Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

And this does not take into account the Zeke effect on other players. Stats can in no way account for the defenses focus on Zeke and how DC's format their game plan. It just can't. You can not assign a value to how him being on the field brings success to other aspects.

When Zeke goes out of the game for a series our offense sputters immediately. I see it time and time again. It is like clockwork.

You cannot ascertain the value of one player on the team without having an alternate universe to see that same team play without him and everything else the same.

It is impossible!
 

morat1959

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He’s a great back and very immature but he’s young. In our offense, we don’t have an offense without a back of his status. We can’t score points when he’s in the game. What are we gonna do when he’s not? Asking for a friend.
 

slick325

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This reminds me of all the motivated reasoning people made to argue against paying D-Law 3 months ago. CZ freaks out whenever it's time for a player to get paid.

It isn't limited to this fan base. It is EVERY fan base for every team in the League. USA Today did a great piece on how the owners manipulate fans as a negotiating tactic. It was done yesterday I believe. Good read.
 

superonyx

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I’ll give credit for the write up. It was well written and had a nice flow.


but it’s as wrong as hell and Zeke is a special back.


We can cherry pick analysis about any player and give it more relevance than it deserves. People tend to do this when what they read agrees with the bias they are already carrying.
 

aikemirv

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Saquon is loved for his pass catching abilities.

His longest TD from Eli was 15 yards.


Zeke has 70 and 80 yard receiving TDS under his belt.

You misunderstood. I was not saying that. I was just pointing to the fact that stats don't tell the story. I think he is a very good pass catcher. The increase in 2018 has nothing to do with that however.
 

Eanwen

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It's a wonder how we won any games last year; Travis was out and everyone (including the coaches) except Martin sucks.

I'm not singling out the OP. I'm as guilty as anyone else.
 

visionary

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:laugh:
When this “great offense (LOL BTW)” falls off a cliff without Zeke I’ll wait for people like you to come in and make thread after thread explaining that with all kinds of reasons except the absence of Zeke
 

khiladi

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This is a argument because Zeke’s inefficiency is dictated by the fact he faces more stacked boxes than any other running back in the game and has a garbage QB that can’t make a team pay, via the THE LOOkS ZEKE CAUSES.

So when you say:

Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?

The fault is definitely NOT in Zeke.

And BTW, he ran way more into stacked boxes, meaning Checkdown Charlie himself had a hard time checking out of run plays apparently, even though the looks favor pass.

Look at the stats on short yardage situation. Zeke ran it 43 times, while the guy that is number 1 ran it 8 and nobody above Zeke ran it over 15 times, outside Connor who ran it 17. Talk about total lack of normalization in trying to make a case.
 
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Kaiser

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We can cherry pick analysis about any player and give it more relevance than it deserves. People tend to do this when what they read agrees with the bias they are already carrying.

Totally agree. Here is my favorite Zeke stat:

RBs forced to play under an Offensive Coordinator with the imagination of an earthworm:

Zeke - 1
Gurley - 0
 

PAPPYDOG

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You’ve heard me say it a million times that I do not want to pay a RB. I do not believe in it. It is the least important position on offense. Elite production can be found more readily later in the draft. Yeah I said it. And i've said it before. I also know that the Cowboys are going to keep Zeke. This isn't about that.

A funny thing happens when I say I would not pay a RB. They point to Emmitt and other big time RBs that have led their teams to the promised land. They say they agree with me in theory but that I need to be more nuanced. I need to make exceptions for truly transcendent talents. So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?

That's the question right?

I've always assumed he would be awesome. When we drafted him i'd assumed he would be awesome. As he's racked up awards I've assumed he was awesome. I was wrong. Let's investigate.


The counting stats speak for themselves...

Rushing yards:

2016: 1,631 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1

2017: 983 || League Rank: #10; League Rank Per Game: #1

2018: 1,434 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1


His receiving work has shown steady improvement

Receptions Per Game:

2016: 2.13

2017: 2.6

2018: 5.13


Receiving Yards Per Game:

2016: 24.2

2017: 26.9

2018: 37.8


The awards speak for themselves.

2x Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)

First-Team All Pro (2016)

Second-Team All Pro (2018)

PFWA All-Rookie Team (2016)

FedEx Ground Player of the Year (2016)


If you stop the analysis here Zeke is unarguably the most accomplished RB league wide since he has put on The Star. You could at least squint and make the argument that you pay transcendence.

However, we are better than our fathers and grandfathers. We now know that efficiency is more important than volume in everything from financial analysis, to online marketing and yes also to professional football. So how efficient is Zeke relative to his peers?

Well here we can look to PFF’s RB statistics. Now I don’t like PFF when they try to evaluate players but they can count things like a missed tackle or a fumble. And they do!
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-explaining-dallas-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade


Forced missed tackles per game among RBs

2016: 31st

2017: 40th

2018: 35th

*Last year Zeke was 1st in total yards after contact but 18th in yards after contact per carry.


Breakaway Percentage among Rbs (percentage of yards a RB gains on runs of more than 15 yards)

2018: 15th


Fumbles among RBs

2018: 1st


Yards per route run among RBs:

2016: 24th

2017: Did not qualify due to suspension

2018: 19th


Put all together and PFF’s Eric Eager found Zeke’s production in 2018 was worth just 0.2 wins above a replacement player. Zero. Point. Two. For the laymen out there...that is not a lot. For reference Mahomes who led the league in the metric checked in at 7.49. That is 37.45 times higher than Zeke. If Zeke is worth 15MM a year what do should the Chiefs pay Patrick?

Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

Thankfully FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/

Because winning matters, let’s start with closing out games.

If we look at all runs in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys were ahead we can look at how each run increased or decreased our win probability.


Win Probability Added in the 4th:

2018: Cowboys ranked 7th overall (Hat tip to Dak)

2018: Zeke ranked 22nd

Last 3 years: Zeke lead in attempts but ranked 26th in win probability added.





Field goals in the red zone get teams beat. Surely Zeke shined in the red zone?


Red zone runs by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 10th overall

2018: Zeke ranked 16th in EPA and 28th in success rate

Last 3 years: Zeke ranked 11th in EPA and 10th in success rate


eikpj.png



Staying on the field and wearing opposing defenses down is something we have preached since Zeke was drafted. Hopefully this year we don’t fear sending out our defense as much as we have in our recent past. How much has Zeke helped our defense by extending drives on the ground?


Short yardage runs in open field by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 4th overall

2018: Zeke’s EPA ranked 10th, his success rate of 67% was good for 11th


c40pf.jpg



Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?



So yes QBs do well when they run play-action. No, we don't need an efficient RB/game to achieve that enhancement.

Look, as I have long acknowledged and accepted and stated as much in this post….The Cowboys are very likely to pay Zeke, make him fabulously wealthy and set some benchmarks other RBs look to hurdle (cough) in coming years. So let’s talk about salary cap efficiency since we’re here

“According to data from Overthecap, the share of average team salary allocated to all rostered running backs has fallen from 6.8 percent of spending in 2013 to 4.5 percent in 2019. Zeke’s salary alone in his optioned fifth year will represent 4.5 percent of the Cowboy’s salary cap. If Zeke signs an extension before the 2020 season, his cap hit combined with the rest of Dallas’s spend at the running back position will likely be double the league average.”

So if Zeke is going to lead to the Cowboys spending roughly double what the league will then we should expect Zeke to be worth double what a replacement level back is worth, right? Well you remember his 2018 wins above replacement number? Zero. Point. Two.

So is Zeke a transcendent talent? What exactly other than volume and counting stats would make you think he was?

And before you answer take a look at this:



^^^

This is a good take. Speciilty backs who post big efficiency numbers on minuscule volume are likely not better than Zeke. If they were they'd get more volume! However, Zeke likely isn't appreciably better than a lot of RBs who are in committees and share the load. He's just higher paid, more famous and in a better offense.

As we stand and breath nothing but the Cowboys stuffing Zeke with volume and inflating his counting stats points to Zeke being a transcendent talent. In fact you could say he’s been quite average. And this is depressing. When not wanting to pay Zeke I at least knew he was tremendous. I knew he was a special talent. At least we were paying a Hall of Famer! An objective look at his 3 years career to date presents a very different picture. Cognitive dissonance will cause many to dismiss this post. That's fine.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But no one is entitled to their own facts.


When it comes out in Paperback hit me up...thks
 

Ring6

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I used to love me some Robert Newhouse 44 and Calvin Hill 32 those were the dayz man.

Summerz here and the time is right.
 

Toruk_Makto

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Cognitive dissonance is strong and typical behavioral responses are running rampant.

Nobody disputes the analysis. It. Just. Doesn't. Matter. Because. Reasons.

Zeke doesn't forced missed tackles? SO WHAT
Zeke doesn't break long runs? SO WHAT
Zeke fumbles more than any other RB? SO WHAT
Zeke wasn't efficient as a ball catcher? SO WHAT
Zeke wasn't special/efficient in the red zone, 4th quarter or open field in short yardage situations? SO WHAT
Dak would benefit from play action with or without Zeke? SO WHAT
Despite all this Zeke would cause us to spend twice the league average at RB? SO WHAT

Yikes. Could not be me.

I always assumed Zeke was in the conversation for best back in football. However, when my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, Zone?
 

PAPPYDOG

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Cognitive dissonance is strong and typical behavioral responses are running rampant.

Nobody disputes the analysis. It. Just. Doesn't. Matter. Because. Reasons.

Zeke doesn't forced missed tackles? SO WHAT
Zeke doesn't break long runs? SO WHAT
Zeke fumbles more than any other RB? SO WHAT
Zeke wasn't efficient as a ball catcher? SO WHAT
Zeke wasn't special/efficient in the red zone, 4th quarter or open field in short yardage situations? SO WHAT
Dak would benefit from play action with or without Zeke? SO WHAT
Despite all this Zeke would cause us to spend twice the league average at RB? SO WHAT

Yikes. Could not be me.

I always assumed Zeke was in the conversation for best back in football. However, when my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, Zone?


Are you Dak's Agent in the real world?
 

CWR

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This is a argument because Zeke’s inefficiency is dictated by the fact he faces more stacked boxes than any other running back in the game and has a garbage QB that can’t make a team pay, via the THE LOOkS ZEKE CAUSES.

So when you say:



The fault is definitely NOT in Zeke.

And BTW, he ran way more into stacked boxes, meaning Checkdown Charlie himself had a hard time checking out of run plays apparently, even though the looks favor pass.

Look at the stats on short yardage situation. Zeke ran it 43 times, while the guy that is number 1 ran it 8 and nobody above Zeke ran it over 15 times, outside Connor who ran it 17. Talk about total lack of normalization in trying to make a case.

FALSE. Zeke doesnt "lead the league in facing stacked boxes." In fact hes middle of the pack.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#yards
 

Toruk_Makto

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This is a argument because Zeke’s inefficiency is dictated by the fact he faces more stacked boxes than any other running back in the game and has a garbage QB that can’t make a team pay, via the THE LOOkS ZEKE CAUSES.


Run percentage against a stacked box:
2016: 12th
2017: 18th
2018: 20th

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#yards


Your own opinion? Yes. Your own facts? No.


And BTW, he ran way more into stacked boxes, meaning Checkdown Charlie himself had a hard time checking out of run plays apparently, even though the looks favor pass.

Look at the stats on short yardage situation. Zeke ran it 43 times, while the guy that is number 1 ran it 8 and nobody above Zeke ran it over 15 times, outside Connor who ran it 17. Talk about total lack of normalization in trying to make a case.

What you should take away from this is that we gave Zeke the ball a lot and he wasn't efficient. So maybe we don't need to pay double what the league is paying RBs?

You want Zeke getting more opportunities if you're paying him more than you are others. That part of the equation makes sense. You would also expect him to do more with it....because you are paying him more than you are others. Got to have it both ways.
 

CF74

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:omg:

Numbers also make average players look good when surrounded by talent, it works both ways..

When u watch Zeke play you realize the guy is a beast not to mention he was a Top 5 Pick..

Numbers only tell part of the story so unless you really know the game, you might rank certain players higher or lower but it’s a team sport. There’s way too many variables that can effect those numbers...

Jerry is going to pay because he’s old school. He likes ball control offenses, that’s why he invested so heavily in the o-line. Zeke is his cherry on top...
 

Big_D

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Zeke has not improved in the pass catching arena, it was just the result of Dak losing Witten.


If Zekes receiving numbers dip because Wittens back in the fold, that pretty much solidifies how stupid these coaches are. Not that that hasn't been made apparent already.
 

Toruk_Makto

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We laugh at BS statements like your fumbles and long runs comments. That's what most of us do.
So what you're actively arguing is that not fumbling and not breaking long runs is a good thing?

Cognitive dissonance makes you take some weird stances.

Couldn't be me.
 
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