Do you think Yards Per Play is best stat for overall evaluation?

Parcells4Life

Parcells4Life

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People like to say total yards can be skewed based on garbage time. So I like yards per play. Over the course of 60 plays per game it should be fairly accurate and lessen effect of that 1 80 yard play.

So Dallas is tops in the league on offense at 7.3 yards per play and 7th in defense at 5.2 yards per play allowed. That’s a net of 2.1.

Jets are last in the league at 3.2 yards per play and 13th on defense averaging 5.5 yards per play. That’s a net of -2.3.

so what’s that mean? Well one sports odds person says that if you take Difference in net yards per play and divide by 0.2, that’s a good estimate for the spread.

In this case the difference is 4.4 and divided by 0.2 it’s 22. Account for 3 points for the home team and spread should be around 19.

Now that does not take into account turnovers which obviously have been the greatest undoing for the team, but hopefully this gives a ray of hope for those thinking the season is lost. Even the defense hasn’t been as awful as I would have thought.
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Parcells4Life said:
People like to say total yards can be skewed based on garbage time. So I like yards per play. Over the course of 60 plays per game it should be fairly accurate and lessen effect of that 1 80 yard play.

So Dallas is tops in the league on offense at 7.3 yards per play and 7th in defense at 5.2 yards per play allowed. That’s a net of 2.1.

Jets are last in the league at 3.2 yards per play and 13th on defense averaging 5.5 yards per play. That’s a net of -2.3.

so what’s that mean? Well one sports odds person says that if you take Difference in net yards per play and divide by 0.2, that’s a good estimate for the spread.

In this case the difference is 4.4 and divided by 0.2 it’s 22. Account for 3 points for the home team and spread should be around 19.

Now that does not take into account turnovers which obviously have been the greatest undoing for the team, but hopefully this gives a ray of hope for those thinking the season is lost. Even the defense hasn’t been as awful as I would have thought.
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Evaluation of what? The offense it total?

The best three are easily yards per drive, points per drive, and offensive DVOA

Best for defense:
Yards per drive allowed, points per drive allowed, and defensive DVOA
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Oz-of-Cowboy-Country said:
No. I think playoff appearances, playoff victories, and superbowl rings are the best stats for overall evaluations.

Using stats to say who should win and by how much is Vegas' job. Us fans just want our team to play good and win. Screw stats.
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Don't understand the topic? Don't participate.

It's simple.
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Offensive DVOA: 1st
Defensive DVOA: 19th
ST DVOA: 27th


The offense starts with the 31st best field position in the league(2nd worst), they still average the 3rd mlst points per drive even with Maher having missed three kicks in seven attempts, and the team having the 3rd most penalty yards against. Incredible.
 
Creeper

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I like stats that show efficiency on offense. So a ratio of points to yards is pretty good. Teams that move the ball into the red zone but cant score TDs are not as good as their stats may indicate. But there isn't a single stat, other than wins, but that stat may be to generic to tell a story.

To me, defense is about making stops when you have to. Not sure what stats are captured for that. Points per game is the key stat on defense. I also like turnovers which translate into drives stopped. They invert possessions and overall they translate into field position. They also change momentum, which can be huge. I can't think of a dominant defense that does not get turnovers. Sacks are like turnovers to a lesser degree but are still huge plays.
 
Irvin88_4life

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QuincyCarterEra said:
Offensive DVOA: 1st
Defensive DVOA: 19th
ST DVOA: 27th


The offense starts with the 31st best field position in the league(2nd worst), they still average the 3rd mlst points per drive even with Maher having missed three kicks in seven attempts, and the team having the 3rd most penalty yards against. Incredible.
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That's what happens when you have a top QB
 
HungryLion

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QuincyCarterEra said:
Offensive DVOA: 1st
Defensive DVOA: 19th
ST DVOA: 27th


The offense starts with the 31st best field position in the league(2nd worst), they still average the 3rd mlst points per drive even with Maher having missed three kicks in seven attempts, and the team having the 3rd most penalty yards against. Incredible.
Click to expand...

Good lord I didn’t realize the numbers were that good.

Highlights even more that turnovers and LACK of forced turnovers are killing this team. IMO.
 
DasSchnitzel

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Parcells4Life said:
People like to say total yards can be skewed based on garbage time. So I like yards per play. Over the course of 60 plays per game it should be fairly accurate and lessen effect of that 1 80 yard play.

So Dallas is tops in the league on offense at 7.3 yards per play and 7th in defense at 5.2 yards per play allowed. That’s a net of 2.1.

Jets are last in the league at 3.2 yards per play and 13th on defense averaging 5.5 yards per play. That’s a net of -2.3.

so what’s that mean? Well one sports odds person says that if you take Difference in net yards per play and divide by 0.2, that’s a good estimate for the spread.

In this case the difference is 4.4 and divided by 0.2 it’s 22. Account for 3 points for the home team and spread should be around 19.

Now that does not take into account turnovers which obviously have been the greatest undoing for the team, but hopefully this gives a ray of hope for those thinking the season is lost. Even the defense hasn’t been as awful as I would have thought.
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I understand the logic and I agree it's probably a good metric for approximating spread.

When evaluating a team, YPP is a nice stat but it can be misleading. A team allowing 5.2 YPP sounds good, unless it's a consistent 5.2 YPP that leads to a dink and dunk defeat.
 
Parcells4Life

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atlantacowboy said:
If football was a straight calculation, there would be no reason to watch.
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No but it shows the team is not as hopeless as most here would have you think.

My analytics come up with Dallas being No. 5 overall in the league right now and turnovers the only reason they’re not No. 3.

For all the crap we give the defense they’re No. 7 in yards per play. Scoring defense also really good.

Turnovers highlight the only reason the games to NO and GB were lost.
 
big dog cowboy

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Parcells4Life said:
not all W-L are created equal especially early in the season
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It doesn't matter.

Early, middle or late in the season.

It still comes down to W-L.

Wins and Loses count the same in Sept. as in Dec.

There isn't any columns for moral wins or losses. Or should have wins or loses.
 
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