Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

[Toruk_Makto]

Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...

Over the past three seasons, quarterbacks average a 103.5 passer rating on play-action, but only 90.1 the rest of the time. Over this span, passers attempted a play-action fake on just 19.9 percent of their total passes.

Over the past three seasons, passer rating had a 0.14 positive correlation to play-action pass attempts in games. A quarterback’s play-action passer rating was slightly impacted by the frequency of rushing attempts within a game (a 0.14 correlation), while yards per carry had a negligible effect (-0.02). Even when teams ran an especially high number of play-action passes within games (10 or more), the results were the same (93.5 on non-play-action passes vs. 109.3 on play-action passes). Even when a team’s running back carried the ball an especially small amount of the time (fewer than 20 times in one game), we see the same result (85.0 vs. 97.4). And even when rushing efficiency is poor (a team yards per carry is below 3.5), again we see the same thing (93.0 vs. 108.4).

Source: https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-quarterbacks-on-play-action

What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.

 

[WillieBeamen]

 

[Star Guard_31]

It was evident from his press conference that he struggled to articulate how his newfound appreciation for analytics would make him a better coach. He was asked multiple times, and gave a non-answer each time.

 

[garyo1954]

That's pretty harsh......

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.

Just because he came to a different conclusion does not make him a fraud. Your approach here is decidedly unscientific.

The right question is to ask how he came to what he found. How did he justify it? for example, PFF uses league wide stats. If a narrower focus -say on the Cowboys- showed a different outcome then he would be justified.

Obviously, show skepticism but always consider it may be you that is wrong. And equally someone else being wrong does not make them a fraud.

 

[gimmesix]

I don't think any coach is ever going to come out and say it doesn't matter if you run the ball well or run the ball poorly no matter how much they are into analytics. I think the nugget to take from this is that he recognizes the importance of the play action pass and fake game.

I do not know what Garrett's percentage of play-action passing was, but we didn't do it nearly as often as I felt we should, especially considering the focus on the running game.

 

[garyo1954]

That's a true statement. Mike was 60% pass.
And when he passed 62% went to his WRs, 22% TE and 18% to the RB.

 

[eternaljester81]

He hasn't coached a single game with Dallas and people already don't like him. Goodness.

 

[Captain-Crash]

yeah, let's get Garrett back. I already miss the loser guy.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Let me preface my comments by saying I’m not contradicting you or arguing any point. I’m thinking aloud.

According to pundits and players, when an offense can run the ball well (however you reach that assessment), defenses are forced to commit extra defenders near the line of scrimmage, presumably making it more difficult to defend the pass.

In the aggregate, statistics show that running ball well does not correlate to passing the ball well. But I wonder how much those stats are skewed by differences in quarterback talent—ie Aaron Rodgers is going to be more efficient than Marcus Mariota no matter how many pass defenders he’s throwing against.

Do the metrics attempt to adjust for QB talent?

 

[mattjames2010]

Welp, gotta fire him now for being a “fraud” with a Lombardi trophy.

Garrett is still unemployed

 

[DUO_CORE]

I love when folks absorb the scraps that players and coaches feed to the media.

 

[CATCH17]

Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.

Like I said.. McCarthy is like all of these big ego coaches that speak about all the changes they want to do from what they did before but the reality is that they are just doing whatever it takes to get another million dollar job.

McCarthy sold everyone some BS and a lot of people bought it.

 

[texbumthelife]

All I need to know is that the teams left in the playoffs can all run the ball exceptionally well. Running the ball is still paramount regardless of how much some people want it to be a passing league.

Being able to run doesn't just set up the pass or play action, it keeps your defense off the field and fresh allowing them more sustained aggression.

Regardless of what MM thinks/found through analytics, the guy is a proven winner at the NFL level and, well, no one here is. So I'm gonna go ahead and side with MM here instead of internet brains just looking to be right at the expense of someone else with exponentially more experience.

 

[texbumthelife]

Like I said.. McCarthy is like all of these big ego coaches that speak about all the changes they want to do from what they did before but the reality is that they are just doing whatever it takes to get another million dollar job.

McCarthy sold everyone some BS and a lot of people bought it.

He hasn't coached a single down yet and he's a fraud? You must be fun at parties...

 

[CATCH17]

He hasn't coached a single down yet and he's a fraud? You must be fun at parties...

I hope he does well but he isn’t changing from what he did in GB that got him fired.

 

[reddyuta]

It was evident from his press conference that he struggled to articulate how his newfound appreciation for analytics would make him a better coach. He was asked multiple times, and gave a non-answer each time.

he gave a non answer to a lot of things,not worried this analytics bit.i doubt they can use it in game,my guess its mostly about game planning for an opponent.

 

[zrinkill]

OP is negative about everything, so who cares what he thinks

 

[Plankton]

While I think it's prudent to be skeptical of his ability to change, I wouldn't necessarily place a tremendous amount of stock in an interview that he gave to local media. As Bill Parcells used to say, he was in the information gathering, not information dispensing, business. I would want to see how he puts things into practice rather than listen to him articulate them to the press.

Now, I think it's great that he spent the year out of football analyzing trends in the league. The larger question is whether he understands them, can find an application for them in what he does, and stays committed to finding innovation. I would hope that he can innovate himself rather than only poach from others.

This is one of the larger issues I had with Jason Garrett. He constantly sought counsel with leaders/coaches in other industries, but failed to find his own authentic voice. McCarthy needs to be adaptable within his own coaching voice. It remains to be seen whether he can do that.

 

[ThreeandOut]

This could very well be intentional disinformation. The last thing I want my coach doing is divulging what he's learned though analytics to the media and future opponents.