Toruk_Makto
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Ok Charles Barkley.Your post is a shame. What a narcissist. How many SuperBowls have you coached and won?
Ok Charles Barkley.Your post is a shame. What a narcissist. How many SuperBowls have you coached and won?
Care to prove that with actual, you know statistics?Common sense tells you if you have a productive running game your play action should benefit from it as teams are keying on shutting it down.
Rushing attempts hardly matters. Rushing effectiveness doesn't matter.
Taking a small Dak sample size or a few outliers doesn't disprove that correlation. Often times it confirms it.
In any case McCarthy is saying something demonstrably untrue.
Another false statement.That is not necessarily true. If you are a child or someone has no fear of being punched then they will not flinch.
In this case front 7 players are taught to react to run keys by taking gap assignments. If the DC is not afraid of the run then they will change the keys so they stay back and/or pass rush for longer. IE instead of when you see the OL start to run block you wait until after the exchange to verify it happens.
Now with us, Zeke being on the field likely makes it such that it doesn't matter because defenses sell out to stop him no matter what. Pollard is a different animal though.
PFF stats are for the whole league and as your article pointed out the conclusions are not universal but instead break down when you look at specific offenses, RB, and the like.
This is the what's true for everyone isn't true for me fallacy that leads people to consistently make bad decisions. It's precisely why analytics are important.True for the NFL average but the "average NFL team" is not real but instead a statistical construct. There is no analog.
After the 5th or 6th time, a normal person would stop flinching, unless you actually hit him in the face one of those times.This is not true. Like at all.
If i've never punched you in the face....but I go through the motions and almost deck you....even if I pull up first you'll flinch.
Same concept applies.
Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.
There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.
See below:
This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.
In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...
What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.
The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.
And that's a shame.
Another false statement.
Defense did not sell out to stop Zeke anymore than they did for our past running backs. I haven't looked at the 2019-2020 season. But this was true for Zeke's first 3 years in the league.
Sometimes actually counting something helps.
This is the what's true for everyone isn't true for me fallacy that leads people to consistently make bad decisions. It's precisely why analytics are important.
I think you are on the right track at trying to get at the context of the numbers. That's the problem with all of these summaries statistics -- all the context is lost and it is the context that is essential to interpreting the possible causal relationships.The issue doesn't seem as simple as that. The same article states the following:
"Prescott also averaged 5.1 fantasy points per game (with a 133.3 passer rating) on play action passes when Elliott was on that field, with those numbers dropping to 1.9 fantasy points per game (and an 83.0 passer rating) during Elliott’s suspension weeks. Perhaps teams didn’t take the threat of play-action as seriously without Elliott on the field, and Prescott’s efficiency suffered as a result."
From the same article:
"On the other end of the spectrum we have four quarterbacks who actually posted a higher passer rating on non-play-action passes. This seemed weird to me, but perhaps the connection is all four passers’ teams also ranked bottom-10 in team rushing attempts over our sample."
Full article: https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-quarterbacks-on-play-action
So McCarthy is right about establishing the run, but it seems like running effectiveness is not as important as run attempts. Also, results vary significantly from team to team and from QB to QB. I am not sure we can call Big Mac a fraud just for this statement. We also can't expect him to spill all the beans on his research. Do you think Bellicheat would willingly tell the media stuff he has found using analytics??
Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.
There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.
See below:
This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.
In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...
What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.
The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.
And that's a shame.
The number of people who were in the box were counted. Yes.So you counted the plays where the front 7 keyed run/pass on PA for Zeke?
I wonder if he will change what won him a Super Bowl.I hope he does well but he isn’t changing from what he did in GB that got him fired.
Fans and media focus too much on psychology and personality. If I say it's incredibly important to establish the run to do play action but I pass the ball 90% of the time, play-action isn't going to be that effective. Passing the ball at a "high" rate of 60% still means you are running it 40% of the time, and if you run effectively during those times that will keep drives moving. Match-ups are also incredibly important, because if I have an incredible defensive front 4 who can shut down the running lanes then play action is also going to be less effective.This is not true. Like at all.
If i've never punched you in the face....but I go through the motions and almost deck you....even if I pull up first you'll flinch.
Same concept applies.
This isn't an average. It is an analysis of play action effectiveness across teams that run a lot or a little and for those who run well or poorly.An average is not a universal truth that applies to all samples. Your article even points out how it is not universal. I even addressed that in my post how what you are describing is not universal.
It either applies to everyone or it doesn't. In your case it doesn't and its very clear there are at least some places where it doesn't work.
Listen I saw the whole analytics pitch as complete crap and salesmen ship. A coach is what he is, expecting one to change their stripes, well don’t hold your breath. Hopefully some culture will change here, but I knew that this analytics thing was complete ear candy to the masses.
So you mean the 40% of the time you run?After the 5th or 6th time, a normal person would stop flinching, unless you actually hit him in the face one of those times.
What I found really interesting was in his interview with Eatman on the mothership, McCarthy stated that procedurally, whoever was calling plays had to also be the one installing the plays in practice. That he had not done that in GB and it caused issues. He was changing that too.
So you counted the plays where the front 7 keyed run/pass on PA for Zeke?