Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

rxdoc

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Boy I read that same quote from Mike and can take a SLIGHTLY different meaning out of it. First let’s state that analytics is a tool to help formulate a decision. It is not the tell all. Analytics does not and in no way can take in account the quality of the players (offensive or defensive) and the execution of the plays. Example, teams in the early nineties did not need analytics but if used it would tell them that Dallas was going to run the ball right down your throats. They knew it and couldn’t do anything about because the Cowboys players was so much better then the other teams and the execution of the plays was formidable. Again it’s a tool used to help give an edge where possible.

But let’s get back to Mike’s quote and the article mentioned. Yes he stated that you have to run the ball to have play action work effectively and the numbers show there wasn’t much difference if the team rushed ten times or upwards of twenty. Mike stated you had to run the ball, he never stated how many times but just that you had to try. So I am going to assume that you assume he is referring to a large amount.

Now let’s get to the second part of his quote that I think you are trying to call him out on. He stated that “when you are able to run the ball effectively, there is an opportunity to get more chunk plays”. The article was referencing passer rating on whether there were a few attempts or many, it never touched on large gaining plays. With that said my interpretation was that Mike believes that when the run game is effective, there is a much better chance for a big gain play.

Without being able to question him and dig into his theory more, it’s not fair to label him a fraud.


Last note: If you research my posts going back several months to a year, you will find several that state I have a upper managerial position in one of the largest analytical firms in the country.

just saying!

^^^ this 1000x

thank you... was going to post something similar but you said it so much better that I could.

simply put analytics is a tool to aid in decision making. You can’t go to either extreme when using them. It’s refreshing to know that MM understands there is a place for them and is willing to use them as necessary compared to JG who wanted absolutely nothing to do with them.

I seriously cannot believe we are arguing over this before MM has even coached his first game for the Cowboys...

I suggest tabling this topic and revisit this discussion at the end of next season when we have actual game data to discuss. Anything at this point is pure speculation.....
 

RoboQB

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Wait...is our default feeling supposed to be "we love the new Cowboys head coach hire" or should we have an honest opinion about every decision they make?

giphy.gif

Can we at least watch him run a practice before calling him a fraud?

By the way, thanks for the cheerleaders.
 

aria

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He hasn't coached a single game with Dallas and people already don't like him. Goodness.
As a reminder there were several people who scoffed at his name and said “no thanks” while still on the Lincoln Riley and Urban Meyer hype train. Just like certain players from other teams that a lot of fans used to bash, as soon as they become a Cowboy they are “awesome” or start getting tons of praise heaped upon them. Some of us don’t change our thoughts on a coach or player just because they become a Cowboy whereas many do.

Personally, I was never over impressed with McCarthy and think most of his success was due to BF and AR. I’m curious to see how much he has actually changed over the past year, and while I hope I’m wrong, I will remain skeptical until proven otherwise.
 

PhillyCowboysFan

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I suggest tabling this topic and revisit this discussion at the end of next season when we have actual game data to discuss. Anything at this point is pure speculation.....

Yes that whole going off on a tangent from a snippet is just asinine.
 

RoboQB

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There are two key reasons this thread is stupid:

1.) McCarthy never claimed to be an analytics guru. He said he spent a day with PFF to learn more, and that he plans to incorporate an analytics department to help the organization make more informed, analytical-based decisions. We should hold him to that. What we should not hold him to, is being an expert in all-things advanced statistics on day one of his hire. His job isn't to study the in's and out's of all the deep-dive data, his job is to put people in place who do and listen to them.

2.) All this whining is over a simple quote, that if you trace it back to its origin, it is really a cat-chasing-its-tail game with the DFW media, and the sole reason this is even a debate is because the major critique of him in the past was that he abandoned the run and threw the ball way too much. The origin of McCarthy's "run to set up the pass" quote was at the introductory press conference, where someone asked something to the effect of "should fans be concerned that Dallas has the highest-paid RB in the league, and you're known for being a past-first coach?" and McCarthy gave some sort of quote about leaning on the running game, likely to assuage some of those concerns. Then, as a follow-up, Jane Slater asked him about the running game quote and how it runs counter-productive analytics and he gave the canned answer we got in the OP. There's no reason to try to read between the lines on anything here.

Outstanding!

That deserves a scotchy, scotch, scotch... lol
 

PhillyCowboysFan

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Do the metrics attempt to adjust for QB talent?


No it doesn’t because it’s impossible to do! Along with team quality and play execution. Analytics is a freaking tool to use along with a heck of a lot of other factors as in game momentum, quality of the players your going against, a lessor positional player in the game, weather and so on and so on.
 

garyo1954

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Peter King documented how McCarthy would spend his days studying all things football in a renovated barn......

According to King, McCarthy would often work with three other coaches, including former New Orleans Saints head coach Jim Haslett.

McCarthy and his staff would study everything, from reviewing "every offensive snap of the top 10 offenses last year," to dissecting formations and play calls, to reviewing quarterback footage.

McCarthy also designed what his football operations staff would look like, with a "14-person Football Technology Department, including a six-person video unit and an eight-person analytics team."

https://clutchpoints.com/cowboys-ne...zimmer-not-interested-in-pursuing-dallas-job/

If its a fraud, its the biggest hoax since.....since.....since charging your iPod with an onion hit the internet! More expensive too!
 

bb721

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Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.


Hey guys, he makes sure to point out that he’s an engineer and now works for a big bank. Let’s make sure that we all bow down to his supreme wisdom. After all, it’s almost impossible to be a good football coach with those two qualifications.
 

Toruk_Makto

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True, but it is slightly amusing to read along as Fuzzy swats this guy around.

A domestic cat is the most ruthless killer in the world.
It will kill for fun. Give'em all the cat food you can.
They will still kill for sport and the enjoyment of watching their prey die.

That is my visual. Fuzzy is the 20lb tabby cat that will make a bug suffer a
painful death... because he can.
Die bug, die... lol (metaphorical, of course... smh)
I get that you want to cling to conventional wisdom. It's comfortable.
 

RoboQB

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I get that you want to cling to conventional wisdom. It's comfortable.

When you start a thread and it gets to 10 pages, yet nobody likes you.

Analyze that.

As mentioned by @DOUBLE WING, you took a snippet and went off the rails with it.
Others pointed out articles stating he would have a 14-man team for analytics.

Since you've responded to me, I'm curious. What is your engineering background?
Structural?
 

Runwildboys

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When you start a thread and it gets to 10 pages, yet nobody likes you.

Analyze that.

As mentioned by @DOUBLE WING, you took a snippet and went off the rails with it.
Others pointed out articles stating he would have a 14-man team for analytics.

Since you've responded to me, I'm curious. What is your engineering background?
Structural?
Let's not generalize with the "nobody likes you" stuff. I don't even know the guy. If there's one way to make sure someone is defensive, it's saying something like that.
 

garyo1954

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This thread makes my head hurt. Claiming dude is fraud just off one quote. At least wait until mid-season like most Cowboy "fans"

This thread makes my head hurt too. I keep reading the first post expecting to see something I missed, but there is nothing there.

It appears to me the OP has Big Mc's terminology of action pass confused with play action pass. The two are not the same in this system.


 

Runwildboys

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This thread makes my head hurt too. I keep reading the first post expecting to see something I missed, but there is nothing there.

It appears to me the OP has Big Mc's terminology of action pass confused with play action pass. The two are not the same in this system.

Okay, I have to say, I've never heard the term "action pass". What exactly is that?
 

garyo1954

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Okay, I have to say, I've never heard the term "action pass". What exactly is that?

Here's how Bill Walsh defined it. (It's a rollout, sprint-out or "waggle.")

Action Pass

The third category of pass that most people use is what we call the action pass, where your quarterback moves outside. There are a couple of reasons for moving outside. One certainly is to avoid the inside pass rush. For a dropback passing team we'll sprint-out "waggle" as we call it-outside to avoid blitzers who approach straight up the field on us. The other advantage is to bring yourself closer to the potential receiver.

We'll get outside to throw the ball and get ourselves closer to the man we want to throw to. When you can get outside, the trajectory of the ball can be flatter because normally there isn't a man between you and the receiver.

The versatility also includes changing your formations. We continuously change receiver width and spacing. We seldom will line up our receiver with the same spacing on two or three plays in a row. If we want to throw the ball to the outside, we will reduce the split of the receiver. We need running room to the outside. We don't want the ball in the air very long. If we want to throw inside, we will extend the split of our receivers, so that there is more maneuvering room to the inside, and spread the defense. Our backs, as many teams know will cheat to get where they have to be. We know that if we throw to backs, the first thing on their mind is how to release out of the backfield. We are quite willing to move the man to get the release and sometimes telegraph what we are doing. We are quite willing to do that with the idea that when we want to break a given tendency, we simply line them up there and run something else."
 

basilhayden

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I was one of the meh folks at the news of his hire, but I'm not anti-Mc. We'll see what he can do next season. Once we figure out if GB's success was him or just Aaron, we'll be in a better spot to judge our new coach.

You can't legitimately assess that when Jerry Jones is in charge.
You just can't ...
 

garyo1954

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Here's his description/definition of play action......in short, it will be a play fake to the back, or some type misdirection to freeze the defense.


Play-Action Passes

You can't just dropback pass. You have to be able to keep the defense from zeroing in on your approach. That's why the play pass is vital. By and large, the play-action pass will score the touchdown. The dropback pass will control the ball.

For play-action passing, we have certain blocking fundamentals that we use. We will show different backfield actions with basically the same offensive line blocking. We will go to the play pass as often as we can, especially as we get to the opponent's 25-yard line.
 
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