Walterfootball 2015 Draft 1st round re-grade: Cowboys made best pick

beware_d-ware

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Little of topic here but this is by far the worst draft/football web site I've seen. Not the content, that's great, but advertisement and pop-ups make the web pages unbearable .....pain in the butt. What kinda funny is Cherepinsky has some serious skin on the wall. He/his site has been around a while. You'd think he could afford to grade......

It's like a time capsule from 2005.

Speaking of time capsules, WF has an awards list on his website that dates all the way back to 2000, and it's a serious blast from the past.

https://***USER-BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1***/awardsnfl2019.php

Lots of fun little nuggets in there - Michael Vick being his MVP in both 2002 and 2004 for example, when public perception is he never fully got it together until Andy Reid and the Eagles.
 
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conner01

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He doesn't just cover. Despite not getting INTs, he good at getting his hands (or more accurately, a hand) on the ball. Shows up most when he's in trailing coverage horizontally.
He a very good cover corner
And I’d love to get him back but the price May be too rich
That fact should tell people how teams do covet CB’s who can cover but don’t get many picks
 

NumOneQB

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I think he’s a good corner. Not super elite but one of the better CBs in the league. The INT thing is unfortunate but wouldn’t stop me from signing him to legite starting CB salary.
 

GimmeTheBall!

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http://***USER-BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1***/nfldraftgrades2015.php

A fun 5-year review on the 2015 draft. Looking back on it, this draft was absolutely pathetic, but the Cowboys ended up with the best pick of anyone with the only A+ Walt gave out. Normally I'm not a WF reader, as Walt is a Philly resident and is generally as terrible of a human being and as big of a Cowboys hater as you'd expect from reading that. But this "where are they now" review is pretty good, and his analysis this time around seems fair.

It's not crazy to say that we ended up with the 2 best players out of that whole first round with Jones + Cooper either.


http://***USER-BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1***/images/fball/cowboysb_logo.gif Dallas Cowboys: Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut: B+ Grade
Five-Year Grade: A+ Grade

The 2015 NFL Draft class had a dismal first round. I've given out many deserved "F" grades. Byron Jones, however, is an oasis in a desert of putrid draft selections. He's been a spectacular player for the Cowboys, as he's even been recognized as one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. This deserves a very clear A+ grade.

Original Write-up:

So much for the Cowboys picking Randy Gregory. Byron Jones makes a ton of sense. I had him going 20th overall to the Eagles, which I thought was a slight reach, so the 27th slot seems like the right area for him. He also fills a big need. Morris Claiborne has struggled, while Brandon Carr is overpaid. The Cowboys were desperate for corner help, and they landed an extremely athletic player as a probable upgrade.

Every dog has his day. Even Jerry can make a wise move like Jones and Cooper.
 

Broges74

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Ugh, Claiborne. What a painful memory.
What was crazy about Claiborne was his NFL average numbers at the combine.

I think you have a higher probability drafting a superior athlete and trying to teach him fundamental skills than to draft an average athlete and see if his skill translates
 

Aviano90

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Oof. That stat doesn't help the Byron defense.

Revis having 29 picks in 145 games means he gets a pick every 5 games on average. Meaning he won't go much more than a month without taking the ball away.

Byron having 2 in 79 games means he gets a pick every 39 games. If you double his totals to come closer to Revis' 145 games, he'd still have only 4 picks in 158 games. And the fact that those 2 picks came in seasons where he was primarily a safety makes it look even worse for his takeaway potential as a corner.
He is fortunate to have his 2 interceptions. His first was on a Hail Mary pass at the end of the half which he should have batted the ball down. Picking the ball off didn’t even give the Cowboys a possession, it just ended the half.

His 2nd was a pick 6 he got because the ball was deflected at the line of scrimmage and went directly to him. Otherwise he would have been nowhere near the ball for the takeaway.

He hasn’t made an individual great play on a ball to get a takeaway in 5 years.
 

CowboyRoy

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QBs rarely challenged Jones..
Thats the main reason for lack of interceptions
He's a very good cover corner
Lol....yak ok. He’s just horrid at ball awareness. Stone hands, horrid play maker. For 5 years, even at roaming safety he couldn’t pick passes.

can’t pay a corner top dollar that is that bad at turnovers.

great cover guy, but no ball skills.
 

SSoup

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He is fortunate to have his 2 interceptions. His first was on a Hail Mary pass at the end of the half which he should have batted the ball down. Picking the ball off didn’t even give the Cowboys a possession, it just ended the half.

His 2nd was a pick 6 he got because the ball was deflected at the line of scrimmage and went directly to him. Otherwise he would have been nowhere near the ball for the takeaway.

He hasn’t made an individual great play on a ball to get a takeaway in 5 years.
It's a shame because he's really strong in coverage.

I was browsing the "advanced" stats section of our main cornerbacks on Pro Football Reference's site. And the lack of interceptions is what holds him back from having much better results. Byron holds opposing QBs to a completion percentage in the low 50's, and he hasn't given up a ton of touchdowns, but the passer ratings against him in the last two years as a corner were 84.7 and 87.7, which isn't great but it's not bad. Just throwing in an INT or two would drop those passer ratings to the point where throwing against him is more of a losing proposition.

For what it's worth, Awuzie's 2019 passer rating allowed was in that same ballpark at 89, despite us all agreeing he's a drastically worse cover player. To be fair, he allowed a passer rating in the high 90's in 2018. So his floor is just terrible, while his ceiling is close to Byron's floor. So I'm not saying he's likely to be a similar player year-in, year-out. Just that he has the potential to be in the same ballpark.

Jourdan Lewis allows a 68% completion percentage. Which sounds terrible but it's mostly a product of playing the slot, because the advanced stats show that the average depth of his man was 6-8 yards downfield when they were targeted, as compared to Byron and Awuzie's men being 10-13 yards downfield on average. Not to mention their guys surely being further out by the sideline most of the time whereas Lewis's guy is in the middle of the field right in front of the QB more often, so his guys running shorter and easier to complete routes accounts for that.

Even with that, Lewis held opposing QBs to passer ratings of 85.6 and 86.8 in the last two years, so he was only a hair worse than Byron in 2018 and actually slightly better in 2019 when it comes to the ultimate result of passer rating. (And that's without factoring in that he scored defensive touchdows in both of those season, because passer rating doesn't take into account of the INT you throw is returned for a score that negates one of the TDs you throw to your own team.)

Oh, and Lewis was targeted 19 times in 2018 and 64 times in 2019. Byron was targeted 80 times in 2018 and 64 times in 2019. For the dummies saying Byron never gets interceptions because QBs never throw at him, re-read those target numbers and think about the fact that Lewis has 3 picks in the last 2 years while Byron hasn't managed even one during that time. They do throw at him. He's just that much worse at playing the ball.

Think about quarterback stats. A QB's passer rating looks completely different if he throws 0 interceptions in a game as opposed to if he throws a couple picks. That's the difference between a guy like Byron who basically NEVER even threatens to pick off a pass, and guys who stumble into one every now and then just by virtue of showing up and not being historically bad at that aspect of the game.

As a corner, if you can't play the ball or pick off a pass ever, your entire game is resting on your completion percentage allowed and your ability to avoid giving up TDs to limit damage. When Byron had that lucky run in 2018 where he only allowed a TD every 40 targets, his passer rating allowed stayed lower. When he had worse luck and allowed a TD about every 20 targets in 2019, his passer rating rose to the level where a player like Awuzie was in the same ballpark and Jourdan Lewis was actually better.

I don't know how sustainable your game is as a corner when you can't do the thing that keeps opposing passers honest.

Is it a coincidence that Byron Jones had less success in 2019 after the league had a solid year of film of him playing corner full-time? Or is that a predictable, unavoidable trend?

His completion percentage allowed went up and his TD rate broke bad.

Of course, his defenders would say that the team's pass-rush was bad and that the LB play was worse and the defense was just all-around messy in 2019, so surely that bleeds over and sabotaged Byron. Right? Well, okay. But how to explain the three other main cornerbacks all improving from 2018 to 2019?

Awuzie and Lewis and Anthony Brown all made advances in 2019. They all got better, allowing lower passer ratings in 2019 than in 2018, while only Byron got worse (less a product of being sabotaged by the same defense the other guys all improved in, and more a result of his unsustainable TD rate coming back to earth).
 

atlantacowboy

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Did the moron who wrote that for walter actually watch cowboy games? Byron Jones is a good Cb. He's been far from "spectacular".
 

CalPolyTechnique

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Too bad we can't keep everyone. I think Byron Jones is EXTREMELY underrated. And when he leaves, we're going to see his interception totals increase. Let's be honest: for the past several years, the Cowboys defense hasn't been able to generate consistent turnovers. That just aint a Byron Jones problem.

But let him walk. He won't stay on the free agent market for long. And, interestingly, you never hear a peep of scandal or negativity associated with his name, other than he doesn't have enough interceptions. He comes to play every game, keeps his nose clean and keeps his namesout of the celebrity rags.

We need more Byron Joneses and fewer Zeke Elliotts.

Well, give the fact he’s registered just 2 INTs in 79 games the bar for improvement is low.
 
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