Long term thinking in a short term game

Diehardblues · Feb 17, 2020

garyo1954 said:
Depends on how you are defining success I guess.

There is an article that shows the first 16 picks since 1990 have an 81% success rate, 17-32 have a 65%, and the second rounders drop to 48%. It goes down from there.

Perhaps the overall success rate is below 50%?

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

I’m not sure where fans would suggest we look for franchise QB’s if not where most of them come from?

jaythecowboy · Feb 17, 2020

DakPresgoat said:
I was simply arguing that the 81% success rate is not accurate because it defines success as starting for 2 years. That’s all I’ve been arguing. Simply starting for 2 years is a poor definition of what is a successful draft pick at QB. That’s it. That’s the argument.

You’re the one twisting the argument into something else in your mind. Why? I have no idea.

No one is gonna cut bait on a high pick like that after one season unless they are just horrid. A lower pick is on a shorter leash. It seems like that is all that stat really proved if the criteria for a "successful qb" is starting two years.

garyo1954 · Feb 17, 2020

DakPresgoat said:
This is the exact article I was talking to him about. The 81% is way inflated because they define success as starting for 2 years. But just looking at the list you can see plenty of successful QB’s by that metric, that any team would be unhappy if they were the ones drafting them.

That 81% would include guys like Byron Leftwich, Tannehill, Jake Locker, Marcus Mariota, Andre Ware, Jameis Winston, Christian ponder, matt Leinart, etc.

I don’t think any rational
Person would call it a success to draft one

I’m not arguing AGAINST taking a QB in the first round. I’m just stating 81% of QB’s drafted in the first round are NOT good QB’s. The real number is much lower.

Yeah, that's what the guy says in the article...

"You could argue that you are not a successful pick at QB in the top 16 unless you are a multi-year starter on a winning team, but I will not make that argument (feel free to do so in the comments)."

You could argue he was not successful if he didn't win a SB.
You could argue he wasn't successful if he lost more play-off games than he won.
We could argue he was successful because he had great stats.
We could all define success on our own terms and have different numbers.

I don't know if its worth discussing without some clear and agreed upon definition of success.

Here's another round by round study........

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-draft-round-round-qb-study-1994-2016

HungryLion · Feb 17, 2020

America's Cowboy said:
Yes, some did. Saying he's a gunslinger from a run-n-shoot type of offense, never played behind Center, can't handle being a pro QB, etc

So all of the negatives? Lol What about the positives?

There’s a reason one was a top 10 pick and the other was a 5th rounder. And it wasn’t because of how similar Mike White is to Mahomes.

HungryLion · Feb 17, 2020

garyo1954 said:
Yeah, that's what the guy says in the article...

"You could argue that you are not a successful pick at QB in the top 16 unless you are a multi-year starter on a winning team, but I will not make that argument (feel free to do so in the comments)."

You could argue he was not successful if he didn't win a SB.
You could argue he wasn't successful if he won less play-off games than he won.
We could argue he was successful because he had great stats.
We could all define success on our own terms and have different numbers.

I don't

garyo1954 said:
Yeah, that's what the guy says in the article...

"You could argue that you are not a successful pick at QB in the top 16 unless you are a multi-year starter on a winning team, but I will not make that argument (feel free to do so in the comments)."

You could argue he was not successful if he didn't win a SB.
You could argue he wasn't successful if he won less play-off games than he won.
We could argue he was successful because he had great stats.
We could all define success on our own terms and have different numbers.

I don't know if its worth discussing without some clear and agreed upon definition of success.

Here's another round by round study........

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-draft-round-round-qb-study-1994-2016

yes there are definitely reasonable arguments to be made about what is or is not successful.

believe me I am under no illusions as to how hard it is to draft a good QB even later in the draft.

Obviously we all have disagreements about Dak. Truth is. Even if you think he is average. The cowboys were incredibly lucky to get even an average starter with a 4th round pick.

I am also not against the cowboys drafting a QB wit a first rounder. People just have to realize it’s also a risk. The cowboys FO has to scout the right guy and make sure not to mess it up. Otherwise it’s round and round on the QB carousel we go. Which isn’t fun for anyone.

OmerV · Feb 17, 2020

CouchCoach said:
The stumbling block in getting this QB deal done seems to be the term of the contract and the Cowboys do not want to find themselves back here again in 4 years. Prescott is young enough that he will most likely get another contract and they evidently fear he will improve and deliver and they will be at his mercy and the mercy of a QB league gone wild.

Well, what did SF do when they had Montana, GB when they had Favre, NE when they had Brady and KC with Smith? Got the replacement before they needed him.

There is a pretty big difference though. When the 49ers acquired Steve Young, Montana was 31 years old and coming off a serious back injury the year before. When the Packers drafted Rodgers, Favre was 36 years old. When the Chiefs acquired Mahomes, Smith was 33, and hadn't yet even had his one outstanding season for the Chiefs. Bottom line is none of them were spending significant resources on a replacement while they had their franchise QB at the same point in their career Dak is.

garyo1954 · Feb 17, 2020

Diehardblues said:
I’m not sure where fans would suggest we look for franchise QB’s if not where most of them come from?

You have to draft one sometime. Some fans are going to hate him, some don't care, and some are going to love the pick.

The Cardinals signed a guy from The Winnipeg Blue Bombers of the CFL yesterday. CFL also gave us Warren Moon, Doug Flutie, and Joe Theisman but the odds of getting one of those guys now..........I wouldn't guess.

Kwyn · Feb 17, 2020

morat1959 said:
Well our 4th rounder is FAR from elite! He doesn’t have to be Brady. We just need a major upgrade at the QB position. Draft one, bring in a couple good FA’s...let’s see how that works out. We haven’t had one since Aikman was here. Romo was good...not elite. I was never a big Romo fan but he was LOTS better than Dak.

Got it! So they must be easy to get if we could find one through FA! The list is out there. Which Fa will be better than Dak?

draft one? Ok! not Burrow, Tua or Herbert because the last of those three will be gone at number 6 to the Chargers.

you must have your eye on the next Brady in the upcoming draft

Lay it on us!

if you can’t identify, using real, actual players, someone better than Dak that we can have on our team in the next three months then you must concede that Dak is the best option

To say otherwise is just not being honest or fair

America's Cowboy · Feb 17, 2020

DakPresgoat said:
So all of the negatives? Lol What about the positives?

There’s a reason one was a top 10 pick and the other was a 5th rounder. And it wasn’t because of how similar Mike White is to Mahomes.

The comparison was based on their style of play and being pass heavy QBs.

morat1959 · Feb 17, 2020

Kwyn said:
Got it! So they must be easy to get if we could find one through FA! The list is out there. Which Fa will be better than Dak?

draft one? Ok! not Burrow, Tua or Herbert because the last of those three will be gone at number 6 to the Chargers.

you must have your eye on the next Brady in the upcoming draft

Lay it on us!

if you can’t identify, using real, actual players, someone better than Dak that we can have on our team in the next three months then you must concede that Dak is the best option

To say otherwise is just not being honest or

Your answer to my list of ALOT of QBs, who imo are better than Dak, will be to argue with your hand picked fantasy stats. I know what I see. Dak’s not the answer without having tons of talent all around him. Our views of Dak’s talent don’t allow us to debate the issue. For the humptenth time, I’ve watched him play going all the way back to HS. You can’t fix his flaws!

Verdict · Feb 17, 2020

CouchCoach said:
They should have already done that but is it real to expect this brain trust to pick QB's. They are among the worst at it. And if posters think they can't do worse, they have....many times.

Yes. They have chosen poorly. But Romo and Dak have been pretty good. I’m not sure the credit should go to on those two.

Kwyn · Feb 17, 2020

I have no idea what you’re talking about with “hand picked fantasy stats”

I simply asked you to specifically name any player who we could get that you think would be better than Dak

Your response was “A LOT”

It would be easy to argue that you’re the one playing fantasy football.

This is not Madden. Yiu can’t just “create a player” or trade 10 spare players for 1 good one. You can’t just say “A LOT” and expect that to stand unless you really don’t have any idea and are just making noise.

Draft
Name a QB we could draft at #17 that would be better than Dak.

I’ll even help you out with some actual football players who’a jersey doesn’t say “A LOT” on the back. These are real life actual QB’s.

Herbert

Will go to the Chargers at #6 at the absolute latest
If we’re trading up to #6 to get Herbert, is that your guy? It would take our #17 and two future 1sts to get him. You sure he’s the guy?
How long you think it would be before he could take us to the playoffs
Are you willing to risk the entire 2020 season on the third beat QB in the draft?

Tua

Will go #5 at the latest and the Commanders may be shopping #2 and the Dolphins might move from #5 to #2 to get him
It would cost our 1st (#17), our 2nd (#52), our 3rd (#82) and next years 3rd rounder. And that’s assuming they would even take thirds and not demand #17 and next years first rounder instead
He may take a redshirt season next year as he continue to rehab so I guess we’re starting Cooper Rush or something random rent-a-QB free agent who is willing to take a one year deal. Don’t think bus driver. Think driving range ball-picker-upper driver.

Burrow

Get ready to pay! This makes the Herschel Walker deal look like an absolute bargain
This years first round
This years third round
Our 1st round pick in 2021
Our 1st round pick in 2022

“A LOT” Draftees!

This is a handful of guys who might be around at #17. You are willing to spend a first here right?
Eason, Love, Fromm. Total crap shoot if any of them will be any better than Dak and even worse odds that they would be able to win in their rookie season. They’re the number 4, 5 and 6 QB in their own draft class for a reason

Free Agents?

Brady? - He’ll be 43 in training camp. He had his worst season in years. He’s falling over the edge of the cliff. Better draft a QB in the first or second round and pray the guy is any good

Brees? - He’ll be 42 come playoff time. He’s probably got at least one good year left. He’s not going anywhere though. He and the city of New Orleans said their marriage vows after Katrina. He will never leave and they will never want him to go. No player in the league is more tied to their city, not just team, than Brees and NO. They’ll let Bridgewater walk and try to see if Taysom Hill An be their future QB1. He’s a RFA.

“A LOT” free agent QB’s

Bridgewater - bus driver, worse than Dak. will get 20m for being average his entire career

Tannehill - Will resign in Tennessee. Will also get 30m+. No better than Dak. Talk about someone who has proved nothing and is about to cash in and this guy is first in line. Journeyman QB who had one good half season in his career.

JameisWinston - Hahahaha - he sucks. Any team that starts him will fail.

Phillip Rivers - 39 come playoff time - showed he’s had it in 2019. Chargers let him walk and didn’t even attempt to wrangle a bad trade for him. He will also get paid close to 30m

you’re welcome

Diehardblues · Feb 17, 2020

CouchCoach said:
They should have already done that but is it real to expect this brain trust to pick QB's. They are among the worst at it. And if posters think they can't do worse, they have....many times.

This brain trust hasn’t really made much effort to draft a franchise QB since Jimmy left.

How many franchises haven’t used a 1st round pick for a QB in 30 years and only 1 other pick higher than 4th round in 30 years.

Diehardblues · Feb 17, 2020

Verdict said:
Yes. They have chosen poorly. But Romo and Dak have been pretty good. I’m not sure the credit should go to on those two.

Poorly .. you’d have to make an attempt to choose poorly.

Since 1989 we’ve only used a 2nd round pick in 2002, a 4th round pick in 2009 , 2016 and a 5th round in 2018.

I wouldn’t call that making much effort. The last 3 were all drafted to be basically backups or long term developments at best.

cern · Feb 17, 2020

Diehardblues said:
I’m not sure where fans would suggest we look for franchise QB’s if not where most of them come from?

The qb tree. Problem is it only blooms once every 10 years.

Diehardblues · Feb 17, 2020

cern said:
The qb tree. Problem is it only blooms once every 10 years.

Quality QB’s are coming out more often than that.

We haven’t really tried in 1st round in 30 years.

gjkoeppen · Feb 17, 2020

Here's a way for those that keep saying that if Prescott is signed for 25-28 mil a year they're OK with that to look at things. I remember when a 5 stick pack of Wrigley's gum was five cents. What's the price of gum today. Those people that want a 25-28 mil a year contract want the 5 cents gum and not want to have to pay today's price. One of there biggest things they say is they list this QB or that QB that make less than what sportswriters say Prescott wants but then don't say or realize that those QB's signed their contracts in previous years and were at the then price for QB's and not what the price is today.
.

Diehardblues · Feb 17, 2020

Since 2000, 28 teams have selected at least one quarterback in the first round.

In fact, the only teams that haven’t reached out for a QB in the first round are the Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks.

cern · Feb 17, 2020

Diehardblues said:
Quality QB’s are coming out more often than that.

We haven’t really tried in 1st round in 30 years.

Perhaps that is because when we choose in the first round, all the top prospects are already gone.

Diehardblues · Feb 17, 2020

cern said:
Perhaps that is because when we choose in the first round, all the top prospects are already gone.

Then you’d be assuming we couldn’t move up if interested?

Or were satisfied with who we had and or not a priority.

Long term thinking in a short term game

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member