News: Good article/study on teams' success with high priced qb

montgod · Mar 27, 2020

CAN NFL TEAMS CONTEND WITH A HIGH-PRICED QB?

BY IAN HARTITZ

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/can-nfl-teams-contend-high-priced-qb

I figured many would find this interesting with the largest discussion on here surrounding signing Dak. Here's 2 excerpts from the article:

"NFL teams with a higher percentage of the salary cap devoted to their QB have consistently made the playoffs more often than those with a cheap option under center. We also see similarly-positive trend lines emerge when accounting for more success than simply making the playoffs."

"Naturally, teams that experience success tend to pay the QB that helped engineer that success (as they should). Paying top dollar at the position hasn't led to overwhelmingly more success than teams that have rolled with lower-cost options, but it's still been the superior choice. If a team doesn't have a solid home-grown option to build their franchise around, they're likely better off going back to the draft than gambling on a mid-level free agent addition."

DandyDon52 · Mar 27, 2020

montgod said:
CAN NFL TEAMS CONTEND WITH A HIGH-PRICED QB?

BY IAN HARTITZ

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/can-nfl-teams-contend-high-priced-qb

I figured many would find this interesting with the largest discussion on here surrounding signing Dak. Here's 2 excerpts from the article:

"NFL teams with a higher percentage of the salary cap devoted to their QB have consistently made the playoffs more often than those with a cheap option under center. We also see similarly-positive trend lines emerge when accounting for more success than simply making the playoffs."

"Naturally, teams that experience success tend to pay the QB that helped engineer that success (as they should). Paying top dollar at the position hasn't led to overwhelmingly more success than teams that have rolled with lower-cost options, but it's still been the superior choice. If a team doesn't have a solid home-grown option to build their franchise around, they're likely better off going back to the draft than gambling on a mid-level free agent addition."

the article points out the % of cap a qb salary takes up. tops is 13%
Now I wonder if that cap % is based on one year, or the average cap hit based on length of each contract.
lets say we look at current cap % avg for qb like R, wilson, at 33 mil would be over that 13% mark.
more like 14% and if dak gets 38 mil would be probably close to 18% .

Anything over 12% means no one has ever won sb with qb over 12%.
However now I question those figures, because I dont know if it is based on 1 year , or whole contract avg.

If right though anything over 25 mil per year is too much.

This article is flawed in that it is including just making the playoffs, as a good thing or successful.
and we should all know that just making the playoffs is not success, it is better than not making playoffs, but to be
successful a team should also have the 12-4 record or better, maybe a bye, and at least get to the conf champ game or SB.

GMO415 · Mar 28, 2020

People are still under the Garrett spell. They have been lulled into thinking that's how a team is coached to perform.

We are about to see a decent team perform under the right coaching.

Techsass · Mar 28, 2020

GMO415 said:
People are still under the Garrett spell. They have been lulled into thinking that's how a team is coached to perform.

We are about to see a decent team perform under the right coaching.

I definitely hope so!!!

fivetwos · Mar 28, 2020

All moot if you hit on your mid round draft picks.

That offsets plenty as far as what you're paying your QB, and ya know....how badly you overpay your MLB long before necessary.

TwistedL0g1k · Mar 28, 2020

Quality, winning QB's are naturally going to command more money.

CCBoy · Mar 28, 2020

Me, I wouldn't focus on models for failure...and focus upon strengths coming into view now. These will be what go onto the carpet when the opening whistles are let loose.

The team now has some functional handles and cap figures that are improving and fully functional here and now...

817Gill · Mar 28, 2020

Good post and I wish fans would understand that each SB winner is different and the circumstances in which they achieved that championship is unique to each team. Some teams have a rookie deal QB and some teams have a mid-tier vet. Some teams have a top paid pro-bowl guy, some teams have a bus driver who manages the game.

It’s all about taking your unique organizational circumstances and making the choices that fit you the best. At the end of the day, Dak’s deal won’t take away our draft picks or change our FA strategy at all. It’s just a matter of making the correct decisions in totality more often than not.

If the coaching improves the way we think, Dak keeps improving the way he has, and we draft well while making smart FA decisions; this roster will be more than good enough to compete. Dak’s deal doesn’t necessarily make it harder to win a SB, it just changes the way we go about it.

big dog cowboy · Mar 28, 2020

GMO415 said:
People are still under the Garrett spell. They have been lulled into thinking that's how a team is coached to perform.

We are about to see a decent team perform under the right coaching.

CowboyRoy · Mar 28, 2020

montgod said:
CAN NFL TEAMS CONTEND WITH A HIGH-PRICED QB?

BY IAN HARTITZ

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/can-nfl-teams-contend-high-priced-qb

I figured many would find this interesting with the largest discussion on here surrounding signing Dak. Here's 2 excerpts from the article:

"NFL teams with a higher percentage of the salary cap devoted to their QB have consistently made the playoffs more often than those with a cheap option under center. We also see similarly-positive trend lines emerge when accounting for more success than simply making the playoffs."

"Naturally, teams that experience success tend to pay the QB that helped engineer that success (as they should). Paying top dollar at the position hasn't led to overwhelmingly more success than teams that have rolled with lower-cost options, but it's still been the superior choice. If a team doesn't have a solid home-grown option to build their franchise around, they're likely better off going back to the draft than gambling on a mid-level free agent addition."

This is football 101, common sense. All this is saying is that if you have a good QB, you have more success. Only a complete moron would throw away a top 10 QB about to enter his prime.

CowboyRoy · Mar 28, 2020

DandyDon52 said:
the article points out the % of cap a qb salary takes up. tops is 13%
Now I wonder if that cap % is based on one year, or the average cap hit based on length of each contract.
lets say we look at current cap % avg for qb like R, wilson, at 33 mil would be over that 13% mark.
more like 14% and if dak gets 38 mil would be probably close to 18% .

Anything over 12% means no one has ever won sb with qb over 12%.
However now I question those figures, because I dont know if it is based on 1 year , or whole contract avg.

If right though anything over 25 mil per year is too much.

This article is flawed in that it is including just making the playoffs, as a good thing or successful.
and we should all know that just making the playoffs is not success, it is better than not making playoffs, but to be
successful a team should also have the 12-4 record or better, maybe a bye, and at least get to the conf champ game or SB.

Not a big enough sample size for your large percentage numbers.

And what good is a great QB without the coaching or team around him? So your inclination that someone with a high priced QB should do this or that is simply ridiculous. NO great QB is going to do anything without proper coaching or a team around him.

morat1959 · Mar 28, 2020

What has Dak done to be considered a top tier QB? Fantasy #s and garbage time stats don’t count.

Philmonroe · Mar 28, 2020

fivetwos said:
All moot if you hit on your mid round draft picks.

That offsets plenty as far as what you're paying your QB, and ya know....how badly you overpay your MLB long before necessary.

This is sounds good logic but being realistic how many teams are consistently hitting on their mid rd picks for any length of time? That's just hard to do IMO.

basel90 · Mar 28, 2020

montgod said:
CAN NFL TEAMS CONTEND WITH A HIGH-PRICED QB?

BY IAN HARTITZ

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/can-nfl-teams-contend-high-priced-qb

I figured many would find this interesting with the largest discussion on here surrounding signing Dak. Here's 2 excerpts from the article:

"NFL teams with a higher percentage of the salary cap devoted to their QB have consistently made the playoffs more often than those with a cheap option under center. We also see similarly-positive trend lines emerge when accounting for more success than simply making the playoffs."

"Naturally, teams that experience success tend to pay the QB that helped engineer that success (as they should). Paying top dollar at the position hasn't led to overwhelmingly more success than teams that have rolled with lower-cost options, but it's still been the superior choice. If a team doesn't have a solid home-grown option to build their franchise around, they're likely better off going back to the draft than gambling on a mid-level free agent addition."

these teams make the playoffs because their high valued QBs are ACTUALLY GOOD,. Not mediocre and way overvalued . The cowboys evaluation of Dak is grotesquely miscalculated.

DandyDon52 · Mar 28, 2020

CowboyRoy said:
Not a big enough sample size for your large percentage numbers.

And what good is a great QB without the coaching or team around him? So your inclination that someone with a high priced QB should do this or that is simply ridiculous. NO great QB is going to do anything without proper coaching or a team around him.

hmmm...... did not say anything about any of this:
NO great QB is going to do anything without proper coaching or a team around him............lol said nothing about this
And what good is a great QB without the coaching or team around him?...........lol said nothing about this
So your inclination that someone with a high priced QB should do this or that is simply ridiculous......... lol said nothing about this
you may need glasses.

buybuydandavis · Mar 28, 2020

montgod said:
"NFL teams with a higher percentage of the salary cap devoted to their QB have consistently made the playoffs more often than those with a cheap option under center. We also see similarly-positive trend lines emerge when accounting for more success than simply making the playoffs."

Correlation. Causation. Blah blah blah.

One of these days I'll get serious about learning Judea Pearl's theories on the proper statistical analysis to test for causality.

InTheZone · Mar 28, 2020

TwistedL0g1k said:
Quality, winning QB's are naturally going to command more money.

I can name several QBs where I don't remember the last time they missed the playoffs. How exactly is Dak a winning qb and how does offering him a ridiculous contract better our situation?

bewp7 · Mar 28, 2020

i dont like it. there is a big difference between paying kirk cousins and dak prescott vs aaron rodgers and russell wilson that does not show up when u just compare cap hits.

DIAF · Mar 28, 2020

morat1959 said:
What has Dak done to be considered a top tier QB? Fantasy #s and garbage time stats don’t count.

"What has Dak ever done to be considered a good QB?? By the way, I won't accept any typical measures used to determine whether a QB is good or not. Checkmate, jerks! "

lol.

Qcard · Mar 28, 2020

montgod said:
CAN NFL TEAMS CONTEND WITH A HIGH-PRICED QB?

BY IAN HARTITZ

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/can-nfl-teams-contend-high-priced-qb

I figured many would find this interesting with the largest discussion on here surrounding signing Dak. Here's 2 excerpts from the article:

"NFL teams with a higher percentage of the salary cap devoted to their QB have consistently made the playoffs more often than those with a cheap option under center. We also see similarly-positive trend lines emerge when accounting for more success than simply making the playoffs."

"Naturally, teams that experience success tend to pay the QB that helped engineer that success (as they should). Paying top dollar at the position hasn't led to overwhelmingly more success than teams that have rolled with lower-cost options, but it's still been the superior choice. If a team doesn't have a solid home-grown option to build their franchise around, they're likely better off going back to the draft than gambling on a mid-level free agent addition."

wow great find...still reading but my initial find the teams with QBs low cap % like KC, Sea, Cin and Houston which most whom are against Dak Market Value contract believe is the best route is at best a mix bag for success....it's Mahomes and Wilson vs. Dalton and Watson. it comes down to the QB and team around the player not the QBs cap percentage

News: Good article/study on teams' success with high priced qb

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