Why WR at 17 is a no go with Dane Brugler mock

Oz-of-Cowboy-Country · Apr 8, 2020

BigD_95 said:
Devin Duvernay in the 4th round would be a steal and I would be very happy

For the slot, yes. That Porche guy from SMU also, IMO.

jterrell · Apr 8, 2020

JBS said:
Since we are using Danes draft guide as an example...select a defensive player on his board that is rated 17th or lower...

Good luck

What is the actual question?
You mean sub in a different pick at 17 that happens to also be defense?

My choices then would be:
1. Trade down by far preferred.
2. Patrick Queen. LB. LSU.
3. OT Josh Jones
4. CB Jeff Gladney TCU

But your scenario presumes top 20 rated QBs don't get overdrafted which would be a first in the history of ever.
18.JUSTIN HERBERT QB3 Oregon
19.JORDAN LOVE QB4 Utah State

Typhus · Apr 8, 2020

Kaiser said:
And Ridley was as finished a product as you can get out of the college ranks.

I'm trying not to do it but I'm basically going to be this guy thinking about Kinlaw the week of the draft:

Oh Mercy Kaiser,, you better make sure you have a good supply of Tylenol.

Cowboyny · Apr 8, 2020

The Cowboy Front Office always tells us that they draft the best player available, but in reality they draft the best player available at a need position.

Typhus · Apr 8, 2020

Cowboyny said:
The Cowboy Front Office always tells us that they draft the best player available, but in reality they draft the best player available at a need position.

But the point is that there are several needs of position.

Sydla · Apr 8, 2020

Typhus said:
But the point is that there are several needs of position.

They had several needs last year and still botched it when they took a reach in Hill in the 2nd round.

Kaiser · Apr 8, 2020

Typhus said:
Oh Mercy Kaiser,, you better make sure you have a good supply of Tylenol.

I stocked up on booze, toilet paper and tylenol well ahead of the draft.

Whyjerry · Apr 8, 2020

jterrell said:
I'm admittedly not sure why this has gained steam as a concept.

DAL is a team with like 5/6 questionable 'starting' spots. (OC, SS, DT3, RDE, CB1/2, TE. Of those, WR3 plays the least snaps.

And WR3 was manned by a top 5 WR3 last year. Cobb produced significantly but this team didn't feel it was worth 9m a year. (Smartly, imho). So it now worth pick 17? Your only pick in the top 50 and hopefully your only top 20 pick in the next 2-3 seasons???
Naw fam.

But 17 looks like BPA may be a WR?? It does. So does rounds 2-5 FWIW.
Teams generally don't grade dudes 1-125. DAL has graded them in areas. Elite, R1, R1/R2, R2, R2/3 et al.
Then you can play with them in an are to get to a specific number. I.E. this player was out 5th ranked player....
But if he wasn't elite... and 4 were. And 15 guys were R1... he is essentially just the same as 5-19. Splitting hairs area.

But when pick 51 comes around you may only have 1 or 2 R2 rated guys left. (The team seldom has even 20 guys rated R1 and def seldom had 50+ rated R2 or higher. So now you have say RB rated R1, a WR rated R1 and a DT rated R2/R3 to choose from. RB isn't a realistic option. Not just because of Zeke but Pollard and your positional value here is simply low. So that kinda leaves a WR(say maybe local kids Jaylon Reagor or Denzel Mims) or a DT like also local kid Justin Madubuike. Round 2 is now a really tough call.

Now let's talk Dane Brugler. (BUY HIS GUIDE!!)
He is essentially the best guy doing this stuff now.
Far better than the Espy guys who have mailed it in for years now.

His WR rankings have 4 legit R1 guys.
2 more R1/R2
5 more R2

He has TWENTY-SIX players rated through R4/R5.
That's A LOT.

Compare.

RB: 13
DL: 15
OL: 15 OT, 6 OG, 5 OC so same 26 TOTAL OL as just WR.
S: 11 but none R1 or even R1/R2.

19 CB suggest it is also a deep group.

So what does Dane project DAL to do in his Mar 4 three round mock?

17. Dallas Cowboys – C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida (rated his CB2)
51. Dallas Cowboys – Justin Madubuike, DT, Texas A&M (rated his DL2)
82. Dallas Cowboys – Malik Harrison, LB, Ohio State (rated his LB8)
(Dane knows DAL FO guys and you can see that reflected in his mock. Heavy big school powerhouse choices here; Defensive rebuild focus)

What about WR?
Available at 17.
21 Pit of Despair - Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
22. Buffalo Bills – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Available at 51.
60. Baltimore Ravens – Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado --Dallas kid BTW.
62. Green Bay Packers – Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame
64. Seattle Seahawks – KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State

Available at 82.
88. New Orleans Saints – Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty
89. Minnesota Vikings – Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF
90. Cleveland Browns (via HOU) – Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina

So you enter Round 4 now
drafted CB2, DL2, LB8....
and with THIRTEEN more WRs rated at least R4/R5.
R4 options include UT's combo of Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay, Dallas and SMU WR James Proche, and Boise State Wr John Hightower who has eerily Gallup-like numbers.
And 9 other guys who'd be a decent or better value.

There is zero reason to overdraft a WR this year.
You have a 20M WR1, a big play monster at WR2 and plenty of ST/depth WR.
A R4 or R5 WR could come in and lead that group of back ups with starting upside.

None of that draft depth even touches on the fact WR is the only position where talent like Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown sits unsigned.

I hope Dane is right. I like a draft heavy on Defense. I also like the LB early because I have zero faith in the 2 clowns they have there now.

JBS · Apr 8, 2020

jterrell said:
What is the actual question?
You mean sub in a different pick at 17 that happens to also be defense?

My choices then would be:
1. Trade down by far preferred.
2. Patrick Queen. LB. LSU.
3. OT Josh Jones
4. CB Jeff Gladney TCU

But your scenario presumes top 20 rated QBs don't get overdrafted which would be a first in the history of ever.
18.JUSTIN HERBERT QB3 Oregon
19.JORDAN LOVE QB4 Utah State

Or that they do get drafted and other offensive players fall

jterrell · Apr 8, 2020

Typhus said:
Its a very polarizing subject, its always the BPA argument, I lean that way esp with the first pick,, and I understand exactly where you are coming from,,,
We don't know,, maybe some of us have that gift,, lol,,, but if WM and staff evaluate a top WR1 status still there, and slight question marks elsewhere, Im some what inclined
to take whoever the player is on our board that is ranked highest,, nobody wants to talk about it but what if one of the top 3 OTs actually slipped a bit.
Im not opposed to any top end bet.

Fair take and I get the premise.
In a sense, I even agree.
I would never reach for a SPECIFIC position.
But I would definitely move certain positions down.
And I need a plan for any kid I draft day 1 or 2.
I'm not just going go hope talent rises but instead know how I plan to use a kid I draft that high.

Keep in mind at pick 17 you are going to be guaranteeing a guy over 8M.
Not only is that more than twice what you pay Gallup over 4 years it is 7M more than you pay him this year.

In ATL they cut WR2 after a year and promoted Ridley.
What do you do with Cooper. Gallup and say Lamb next off-season?
I mean WRs are never divas and have issues sharing targets or anything

Kaiser · Apr 8, 2020

JBS said:
Or that they do get drafted and other offensive players fall

Brugler has a lot of QBs, RBs and an OT in the group after our pick, its not hard to see someone reaching for a skill position player so Kinlaw or Henderson has a better chance of dropping to us:

18. JUSTIN HERBERT QB3 Oregon
19. JORDAN LOVE QB4 Utah State
20. J.K. DOBBINS RB1 Ohio State
21. PATRICK QUEEN LB2 LSU
22. JOSH JONES OT5 Houston
23. BRANDON AIYUK WR5 Arizona State
24. KENNETH MURRAY LB3 Oklahoma
25. AUSTIN JACKSON OT6 USC
26. D’ANDRE SWIFT RB2 Georgia
27. JONATHAN TAYLOR RB3 Wisconsin

817Gill · Apr 8, 2020

If one of the big three is there at WR, there are scenarios where that could not only be BPA but beneficial 2 years down the line

Sydla · Apr 8, 2020

jterrell said:
What is the actual question?
You mean sub in a different pick at 17 that happens to also be defense?

My choices then would be:
1. Trade down by far preferred.
2. Patrick Queen. LB. LSU.
3. OT Josh Jones
4. CB Jeff Gladney TCU

But your scenario presumes top 20 rated QBs don't get overdrafted which would be a first in the history of ever.
18.JUSTIN HERBERT QB3 Oregon
19.JORDAN LOVE QB4 Utah State

I think his point was that if you aren't going WR at 17, the defensive players you have after 17 on Bruglar's list aren't exactly awe inspiring.

I'd take Jeudy or Ruggs over Queen, Jones and Gladney and not think twice about it.

To me, I'd consider Henderson, Kinlaw, possibly Chaisson and maybe McKinney (but not sure on this one) at 17 if they were on the board at 17 and one or two of the WRs. But if they are all gone and I am left with Ruggs or Jeudy and then guys like Epenesa and Gross-Matos and Gladney and Quinn, I think it would be foolish to pass on one of the higher WRs to take one of those guys.

JBS · Apr 8, 2020

Kaiser said:
Brugler has a lot of QBs, RBs and an OT in the group after our pick, its not hard to see someone reaching for a skill position player so Kinlaw or Henderson has a better chance of dropping to us:

18. JUSTIN HERBERT QB3 Oregon
19. JORDAN LOVE QB4 Utah State
20. J.K. DOBBINS RB1 Ohio State
21. PATRICK QUEEN LB2 LSU
22. JOSH JONES OT5 Houston
23. BRANDON AIYUK WR5 Arizona State
24. KENNETH MURRAY LB3 Oklahoma
25. AUSTIN JACKSON OT6 USC
26. D’ANDRE SWIFT RB2 Georgia
27. JONATHAN TAYLOR RB3 Wisconsin

That would be lovely. I'm all in favor of going defense, if the player warrants the pick...I'm not forcing a defensive pick just to take one..

jterrell · Apr 8, 2020

JBS said:
Or that they do get drafted and other offensive players fall

I'd have zero issue going OT if the board fell that way.
Unlike WR my OT money to Tyron is on a very short term scale.

But looking at Dane's rankings it seems DAL is in a sweet spot at 17 where an elite defender or OT will fall to them OR they get to trade down with a QB needy team.

It looks pretty good based on his board at least.

AsthmaField · Apr 8, 2020

Just my opinion but if a lot of teams feel like this is a historically deep WR draft and pass on the position in round 1 and the defensive side of the ball is picked over by the 17th pick, leaving Dallas the choice of Jeudy or McKinney/Fulton... then I am fine with them drafting the ‘Bama WR.

That’s all that I’m saying. There are worse things than having 3 really young, talented receivers on an offense that will probably use 11 personnel about three-quarters of the time.

However, I put the percentage of Dallas drafting defense in the first round at about 90%, so the people who would be mad at a rd 1 WR need not worry too much.

Sydla · Apr 8, 2020

jterrell said:
Fair take and I get the premise.
In a sense, I even agree.
I would never reach for a SPECIFIC position.
But I would definitely move certain positions down.
And I need a plan for any kid I draft day 1 or 2.
I'm not just going go hope talent rises but instead know how I plan to use a kid I draft that high.

Keep in mind at pick 17 you are going to be guaranteeing a guy over 8M.
Not only is that more than twice what you pay Gallup over 4 years it is 7M more than you pay him this year.

In ATL they cut WR2 after a year and promoted Ridley.
What do you do with Cooper. Gallup and say Lamb next off-season?
I mean WRs are never divas and have issues sharing targets or anything

You keep all three and then in 2022, you've given yourself flexibility to either maybe move on from Cooper or you decide Gallup isn't worth resigning because he's going to get significantly overpaid.

Again, you only take WR in that spot if he's the best player there. I don't think anyone is saying you have to take WR at 17 because it's a desperate need.

Have we learned nothing from forcing defensive picks on Charlton and Hill? And I am one that has been pleading to beef up the defense, but even I know, in the first round, you take the best player you can and if that's a WR, you take the WR.

JBS · Apr 8, 2020

jterrell said:
I'd have zero issue going OT if the board fell that way.
Unlike WR my OT money to Tyron is on a very short term scale.

But looking at Dane's rankings it seems DAL is in a sweet spot at 17 where an elite defender or OT will fall to them OR they get to trade down with a QB needy team.

It looks pretty good based on his board at least.

Yes there is no way somebody can argue against this. It's impossible for one of these things not to happen. I personally don't want an OT. Im totally fine w the other two options

jterrell · Apr 8, 2020

Kaiser said:
Brugler has a lot of QBs, RBs and an OT in the group after our pick, its not hard to see someone reaching for a skill position player so Kinlaw or Henderson has a better chance of dropping to us:

18. JUSTIN HERBERT QB3 Oregon
19. JORDAN LOVE QB4 Utah State
20. J.K. DOBBINS RB1 Ohio State
21. PATRICK QUEEN LB2 LSU
22. JOSH JONES OT5 Houston
23. BRANDON AIYUK WR5 Arizona State
24. KENNETH MURRAY LB3 Oklahoma
25. AUSTIN JACKSON OT6 USC
26. D’ANDRE SWIFT RB2 Georgia
27. JONATHAN TAYLOR RB3 Wisconsin

I fully expect both QBs to go before us but it might be even better if one slid to us so we could trade that slot to a QB needy team.
There are reportedly scouts/teams that feel each of Herbert and Love have the highest upsides in this QB draft class.

Sydla · Apr 8, 2020

AsthmaField said:
Just my opinion but if a lot of teams feel like this is a historically deep WR draft and pass on the position in round 1 and the defensive side of the ball is picked over by the 17th pick, leaving Dallas the choice of Jeudy or McKinney/Fulton... then I am fine with them drafting the ‘Bama WR.

That’s all that I’m saying. There are worse things than having 3 really young, talented receivers on an offense that will probably use 11 personnel about three-quarters of the time.

However, I put the percentage of Dallas drafting defense in the first round at about 90%, so the people who would be mad at a rd 1 WR need not worry too much.

My gut says the pick is likely Henderson, maybe Kinlaw (which I would love) as the WRs will got in the Top 16 and maybe one or two of Love or Herbert going above as well.

Why WR at 17 is a no go with Dane Brugler mock

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