Why WR at 17 is a no go with Dane Brugler mock

Sydla · Apr 8, 2020

JBS said:
Yes there is no way somebody can argue against this. It's impossible for one of these things not to happen. I personally don't want an OT. Im totally fine w the other two options

Trade down makes sense in some scenarios, but again, if Jeudy is sitting there, for example, I think it would be foolish to pass on him in a trade down.

TheMarathonContinues · Apr 8, 2020

JoeyBoy718 said:
Seems crazy people want to go WR in the 1st round. For one, we’re replacing an old Randall Cobb. Also, we traded a 1st for Amari and just made him the highest paid WR. Not to mention, we drafted Gallup and Pollard in recent years and we should expect them to see more action. Meanwhile, we lost our top CB and haven’t had a legitimate safety in three decades.

Most of us want to go receiver in 1st either with at trade down or if no corner or defensive lineman is there at 17.

JBS · Apr 8, 2020

Sydla said:
Trade down makes sense in some scenarios, but again, if Jeudy is sitting there, for example, I think it would be foolish to pass on him in a trade down.

Right there w ya. I'm not moving off Lamb or Jeudy to trade down

AsthmaField · Apr 8, 2020

Sydla said:
My gut says the pick is likely Henderson, maybe Kinlaw (which I would love) as the WRs will got in the Top 16 and maybe one or two of Love or Herbert going above as well.

I agree. I’m thinking the top two most likely are Henderson and Fulton. I think Kinlaw will be gone but I’d love to get him at 17.

I could also see Baun, which I’d be fine with.

Sydla · Apr 8, 2020

rocyaice said:
Most of us want to go receiver in 1st either with at trade down or if no corner or defensive lineman is there at 17.

Exactly............ if the board is picked clean and a trade down isn't available (and note, everyone, every year says there will be trade down opportunities and every year, the hype from fans is way higher than reality), you take the best player at that spot. And if it's a WR, you take the WR.

This isn't rocket science.

tayloner · Apr 8, 2020

I'm fine with a WR at 17. Let's not forget that 1.) injuries happen, and 2.) Gallup will be a free agent year after next, and young receivers typically take a year or two to get up to speed, meaning a receiver drafted this year would time out well in terms of stepping up for Gallup if he ends up earning a Randall Cobb type contract somewhere else over the next couple seasons. Given the money we have invested in Amari, it's probably wise to continue to have someone on a rookie contract for WR2.

A big part of me being fine with drafting a receiver, even though it's not a traditional "need," is because I think the 3 top receivers this year will all have long, productive careers in the NFL. I think we're all hoping one of the defensive studs falls us though (Kinlaw, Henderson, D. Brown, etc). However, if they don't, I'm fine taking one of Ruggs/Lamb/Jeudy.

Sydla · Apr 8, 2020

AsthmaField said:
I agree. I’m thinking the top two most likely are Henderson and Fulton. I think Kinlaw will be gone but I’d love to get him at 17.

Ehhhh on Fulton. I was more in his camp and anti-Henderson, but the more I read draft reviews and see some tape, Henderson is the guy I'd take even with the questions about his tackling and sometimes lack of intensity (for lack of a better phrase) in wanting to tackle. I'll be honest though, even Henderson wouldn't make me giddy. Kinlaw is the one guy that would and I fully expect to be disappointed. LOL.

Kaiser · Apr 8, 2020

JBS said:
That would be lovely. I'm all in favor of going defense, if the player warrants the pick...I'm not forcing a defensive pick just to take one..

Totally agree. I think they do have to take a CB but there are plenty of them available after the first round. One thing that jumped out me at first look at Brugler's guide was Kinlaw is within reach of our pick at 17 and the exact pick at 60 is CB Kristian Fulton of LSU.

JBS · Apr 8, 2020

Kaiser said:
Totally agree. I think they do have to take a CB but there are plenty of them available after the first round. One thing that jumped out me at first look at Brugler's guide was Kinlaw is within reach of our pick at 17 and the exact pick at 60 is CB Kristian Fulton of LSU.

Yeah he's very low on Fulton. I definitely think there is a chance Kinlaw is available at 17. I don't think henderson will be there at 17, although, it's certainly possible that he could be. My gut tells me that somebody will fall, henderson will be gone, and Dallas will bypass a better player for a cornerback that isn't deserving of 17...probably Diggs..and I won't be too happy about that

TheMarathonContinues · Apr 8, 2020

Sydla said:
Exactly............ if the board is picked clean and a trade down isn't available (and note, everyone, every year says there will be trade down opportunities and every year, the hype from fans is way higher than reality), you take the best player at that spot. And if it's a WR, you take the WR.

This isn't rocket science.

Right. And I'm not scout or GM but one rule I have is don't trade away from premium talent. I learned that rule by watching the Cowboys draft every year. Don't make this anymore complex than it has to be. The only way I trade down is if I'm looking at a bunch of guys who shouldn't be taken at 17. The plan is to get the most value I can for that pick. If I'm drafting a guy and I know he's there in the mid 20's that's when you trade down.

But I'm not trading way from a premium receiver because I don't have that need.

RJ_MacReady · Apr 8, 2020

The earliest, the most earliest I could see them drafting a WR is in the 3rd rd. Most likely it will be in the 4th-6th rd.

RS12 · Apr 8, 2020

Stevie has said all along they were focusing on defense in this draft and I doubt it is a smoke screen. In fact I would not be surprised if one of the big 3 WRs was there at 17, they would likely trade the pick for a nice haul.

jterrell · Apr 8, 2020

rocyaice said:
Right. And I'm not scout or GM but one rule I have is don't trade away from premium talent. I learned that rule by watching the Cowboys draft every year. Don't make this anymore complex than it has to be. The only way I trade down is if I'm looking at a bunch of guys who shouldn't be taken at 17. The plan is to get the most value I can for that pick. If I'm drafting a guy and I know he's there in the mid 20's that's when you trade down.

But I'm not trading way from a premium receiver because I don't have that need.

Those WRs aren't premium picks, at least on Dane's board.
Best available if they fell for sure not premium.
Trading down in round 1 has worked out for Dallas far more often then trading up and it's not really close.

The last two premium picks DAL made are Zeke who is absolutely premium but at a position with very short shelf life and Mo Claiborne who was a legit NFL starter but nothing more even tho rated 1 overall by DAL scouts.

What premium talents are you saying DAL traded away from?

Sydla · Apr 8, 2020

jterrell said:
Those WRs aren't premium picks, at least on Dane's board.
Best available if they fell for sure not premium.
Trading down in round 1 has worked out for Dallas far more often then trading up and it's not really close.

The last two premium picks DAL made are Zeke who is absolutely premium but at a position with very short shelf life and Mo Claiborne who was a legit NFL starter but nothing more even tho rated 1 overall by DAL scouts.

What premium talents are you saying DAL traded away from?

Where does he have Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs? And who is the 4th? Jefferson? Mims?

MoistMayonnaise · Apr 8, 2020

At the end of the day, I just want the 'Boys to get a starter out of their first round pick. I don't really care what position. This goes for the second round too.

AsthmaField · Apr 8, 2020

Sydla said:
Ehhhh on Fulton. I was more in his camp and anti-Henderson, but the more I read draft reviews and see some tape, Henderson is the guy I'd take even with the questions about his tackling and sometimes lack of intensity (for lack of a better phrase) in wanting to tackle. I'll be honest though, even Henderson wouldn't make me giddy. Kinlaw is the one guy that would and I fully expect to be disappointed. LOL.

Yeah, I’m not sold on Fulton for sure. And I don’t love Henderson but I could understand and get behind that pick.

Heck, I’d rather have Cesar Ruiz at C than reach for a defender just because there are defensive needs. See: Charlton, Taco. Ruiz is going to be a beast but I fully understand why the team would look elsewhere.

Stash · Apr 8, 2020

jterrell said:
I'm admittedly not sure why this has gained steam as a concept.

DAL is a team with like 5/6 questionable 'starting' spots. (OC, SS, DT3, RDE, CB1/2, TE. Of those, WR3 plays the least snaps.

And WR3 was manned by a top 5 WR3 last year. Cobb produced significantly but this team didn't feel it was worth 9m a year. (Smartly, imho). So it now worth pick 17? Your only pick in the top 50 and hopefully your only top 20 pick in the next 2-3 seasons???
Naw fam.

But 17 looks like BPA may be a WR?? It does. So does rounds 2-5 FWIW.
Teams generally don't grade dudes 1-125. DAL has graded them in areas. Elite, R1, R1/R2, R2, R2/3 et al.
Then you can play with them in an are to get to a specific number. I.E. this player was out 5th ranked player....
But if he wasn't elite... and 4 were. And 15 guys were R1... he is essentially just the same as 5-19. Splitting hairs area.

But when pick 51 comes around you may only have 1 or 2 R2 rated guys left. (The team seldom has even 20 guys rated R1 and def seldom had 50+ rated R2 or higher. So now you have say RB rated R1, a WR rated R1 and a DT rated R2/R3 to choose from. RB isn't a realistic option. Not just because of Zeke but Pollard and your positional value here is simply low. So that kinda leaves a WR(say maybe local kids Jaylon Reagor or Denzel Mims) or a DT like also local kid Justin Madubuike. Round 2 is now a really tough call.

Now let's talk Dane Brugler. (BUY HIS GUIDE!!)
He is essentially the best guy doing this stuff now.
Far better than the Espy guys who have mailed it in for years now.

His WR rankings have 4 legit R1 guys.
2 more R1/R2
5 more R2

He has TWENTY-SIX players rated through R4/R5.
That's A LOT.

Compare.

RB: 13
DL: 15
OL: 15 OT, 6 OG, 5 OC so same 26 TOTAL OL as just WR.
S: 11 but none R1 or even R1/R2.

19 CB suggest it is also a deep group.

So what does Dane project DAL to do in his Mar 4 three round mock?

17. Dallas Cowboys – C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida (rated his CB2)
51. Dallas Cowboys – Justin Madubuike, DT, Texas A&M (rated his DL2)
82. Dallas Cowboys – Malik Harrison, LB, Ohio State (rated his LB8)
(Dane knows DAL FO guys and you can see that reflected in his mock. Heavy big school powerhouse choices here; Defensive rebuild focus)

What about WR?
Available at 17.
21 Pit of Despair - Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
22. Buffalo Bills – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Available at 51.
60. Baltimore Ravens – Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado --Dallas kid BTW.
62. Green Bay Packers – Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame
64. Seattle Seahawks – KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State

Available at 82.
88. New Orleans Saints – Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty
89. Minnesota Vikings – Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF
90. Cleveland Browns (via HOU) – Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina

So you enter Round 4 now
drafted CB2, DL2, LB8....
and with THIRTEEN more WRs rated at least R4/R5.
R4 options include UT's combo of Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay, Dallas and SMU WR James Proche, and Boise State Wr John Hightower who has eerily Gallup-like numbers.
And 9 other guys who'd be a decent or better value.

There is zero reason to overdraft a WR this year.
You have a 20M WR1, a big play monster at WR2 and plenty of ST/depth WR.
A R4 or R5 WR could come in and lead that group of back ups with starting upside.

None of that draft depth even touches on the fact WR is the only position where talent like Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown sits unsigned.

If it broke exactly as Brugler has listed in his top 100, the Cowboys are screwed if they stay at #17. Either trade up or down or take Herbert. Sure it likely won’t help much this year, but you can’t pass up that draft equity.

Typhus · Apr 8, 2020

jterrell said:
Fair take and I get the premise.
In a sense, I even agree.
I would never reach for a SPECIFIC position.
But I would definitely move certain positions down.
And I need a plan for any kid I draft day 1 or 2.
I'm not just going go hope talent rises but instead know how I plan to use a kid I draft that high.

Keep in mind at pick 17 you are going to be guaranteeing a guy over 8M.
Not only is that more than twice what you pay Gallup over 4 years it is 7M more than you pay him this year.

In ATL they cut WR2 after a year and promoted Ridley.
What do you do with Cooper. Gallup and say Lamb next off-season?
I mean WRs are never divas and have issues sharing targets or anything

I agree with everything you just posted, but it just seems to be a rather simple premise for this franchise to have almost complete flexibility even at the top of this draft.
Several different directions up, down.. there are several "need" positions available.

Miller · Apr 8, 2020

Sydla said:
I am not sure what you are trying to prove here. Are you saying Dallas won't take a WR at 17 regardless of who is there or that they won't take a WR at 17 because there won't be one worthy of the pick because the better ones will be off the board by then?

Good question because despite a nice post by OP if one of the big boy WRs slides why not think about it? That question is kind of ignored

Typhus · Apr 8, 2020

Sydla said:
They had several needs last year and still botched it when they took a reach in Hill in the 2nd round.

We still stalking about last year?

Why WR at 17 is a no go with Dane Brugler mock

Sydla

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TheMarathonContinues

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JBS

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AsthmaField

Outta bounds

Sydla

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tayloner

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Sydla

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Kaiser

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JBS

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TheMarathonContinues

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RJ_MacReady

It's all in the reflexes

RS12

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jterrell

Penguinite

Sydla

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MoistMayonnaise

Devil's Advocate

AsthmaField

Outta bounds

Stash

Typhus

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Miller

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Typhus

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