How the Dallas Cowboys GM delivered an unexpected draft result

CCBoy · Apr 18, 2020

Redball Express said:
I guess I'm just a greedy SOB.

Is this post supposed to wake me up or what?

So other teams are more inept than we have been since 1995?

That's warm and fuzzy?

Try telling Napoleon after failing twice at conquering Europe..

"It's OK Nappy, not everybody wins all the time. Please accept this Participation Trophy and our Thanx for a job well done."

Cough choke sneeze.

Sorry. I'm more like Zeke..

Feed me..feed me..feed me.

(cough) The OP started on the premise that as to players, both draft and current free agents on the roster, the GM's roll has been very effective...and the wins/losses recently, has actually been very good as compared to the entire NFL.

I added the owner/head coach aspect only to point that was not the subject matter for discussion based upon OP. Cheap shots at Jerry the owner, are really counter productive...who doesn't hate NOT winning?

A leg to compare progress on the team now, is being explored, and not the integrity or stupidity of any owner as it related to a glorious past. Jerry was also part of that very past, but that is completely counter productive here, on this thread...

Flamma · Apr 18, 2020

CCBoy said:
Six franchises have had longer Super Bowl droughts: 49ers (25 years), Washington (28 years), Bears (34 years), Raiders (36 years), Dolphins (46 years), and Jets (51 years). Another twelve teams have never won the Super Bowl: Bengals, Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Chargers, Falcons, Jaguars, Lions, Panthers, Texans, Titans/Oilers, and Vikings. This is not meant to apologize for Jones but rather put it in perspective that the Super Bowl is hard to win.

Anyone can use a statistic and make something look good or bad depending on the standard they themselves set. Then show the results. I know, I do it here myself. Take an otherwise good looking stat, apply the standard I want and show you that it isn't really that good.

It's not just no super bowl wins. No super bowl appearances. No NFC championship appearances. How many out of the 18 teams on that list are left now? If the last 10 years looked like '75 to '84 you wouldn't see that many complaints. Yeah it sucks to not win a super bowl in the last 24 years. But that's not only what sucks. It also sucks having to watch a poor product on the field all season long. Knowing by week 6 that your favorite team is insignificant.

Blackspider214 · Apr 18, 2020

CCBoy said:
...For players taken after the first round, only 249 of the 2003 total draft picks or 12 percent meet an AV of 5 or more. With only seven picks in the draft including one first-round pick, Dallas has an expected value of finding 1.3 impact rookies (1 first-round pick x 0.58 + 6 non-first round picks x 0.12).

By far, the biggest reason Dallas has excelled at drafting in the last decade is their hit rate with first-round draft picks. Six of the eight picks have had AVs greater than or equal to five: offensive linemen Tyron Smith (9 AV), Travis Frederick (8 AV), Zack Martin (14 AV), corner Morris Claiborne (6 AV), running back Ezekiel Elliott, and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (11 AV). Only corner Byron Jones (4 AV) and defensive end Taco Charlton (2 AV) missed the mark.

Dallas has found three players in the third round with impactful rookie seasons: running back DeMarco Murray (7 AV) in 2011, wide receiver Terrance Williams (7 AV) in 2013, and defensive lineman Maliek Collins in 2016. Besides Prescott, the Cowboys have had one other fourth-round pick make a rookie impact – Anthony Hitchens (6 AV) in 2014...

https://thelandryhat.com/2020/04/18/dallas-cowboys-missing-pieces-2020-nfl-draft/

You don't excel at the draft by only hitting on one guy. Their track record after the 1st round is not good and downright awful. Hitting on the 1st round is great but how about rounds 2-7? Especially rounds 2 and 3. Those help with your roster big time. Rounds 2 and 3 should be starters at some point. How many do we have doing that? And we wonder why we constantly draft to fix past mistakes instead of solidifying our roster.

MaineBoy · Apr 18, 2020

Blackspider214 said:
You don't excel at the draft by only hitting on one guy. Their track record after the 1st round is not good and downright awful. Hitting on the 1st round is great but how about rounds 2-7? Especially rounds 2 and 3. Those help with your roster big time. Rounds 2 and 3 should be starters at some point. How many do we have doing that? And we wonder why we constantly draft to fix past mistakes instead of solidifying our roster.

great, great point. How many draft picks did we waste on tight ends so we could run a 2 tight end offense....which we never ended up doing...

Aerolithe_Lion · Apr 18, 2020

blueblood70 said:
ive said that about Jerry and the drought narrative many times..logic doesnt work all they keep saying is its been over 25years..add KC before last year was 50years between sbs, took philly 60years to get their first..i mean we are in drought no one likes it but we are waiting on our SIXTH and 9TH appearance..

thats perspective..

We did make.... 8 NFCCG’s in that 57 years? 9? That’s the point of the 24 year drought, you couldn’t even get that far

big dog cowboy · Apr 18, 2020

Blackspider214 said:
Hitting on the 1st round is great but how about rounds 2-7? Especially rounds 2 and 3. Those help with your roster big time. Rounds 2 and 3 should be starters at some point.

Should be starters at some point? Not as likely as you might think. It's a little dated. But still works.

What the stats tell us about drafting positions by round

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

kskboys · Apr 18, 2020

blueblood70 said:
ive said that about Jerry and the drought narrative many times..logic doesnt work all they keep saying is its been over 25years..add KC before last year was 50years between sbs, took philly 60years to get their first..i mean we are in drought no one likes it but we are waiting on our SIXTH and 9TH appearance..

thats perspective..

Logic? Well, let's use logic. Jerry admitted himself that he'd have been fired as GM for any other team. So, wouldn't you conclude that if Jerry himself thinks he's bad, that logic dictates that he might be bad? Pretty logical.

Bob-Lillys-War · Apr 18, 2020

big dog cowboy said:
Should be starters at some point? Not as likely as you might think. It's a little dated. But still works.

What the stats tell us about drafting positions by round

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

would you look at that ... 8% of QBs drafted in the 4th have a chance to be consistent starters .

CCBoy · Apr 19, 2020

Flamma said:
Anyone can use a statistic and make something look good or bad depending on the standard they themselves set. Then show the results. I know, I do it here myself. Take an otherwise good looking stat, apply the standard I want and show you that it isn't really that good.

It's not just no super bowl wins. No super bowl appearances. No NFC championship appearances. How many out of the 18 teams on that list are left now? If the last 10 years looked like '75 to '84 you wouldn't see that many complaints. Yeah it sucks to not win a super bowl in the last 24 years. But that's not only what sucks. It also sucks having to watch a poor product on the field all season long. Knowing by week 6 that your favorite team is insignificant.

Didn't even bother to look...figures. Cry about a long period without your winning it all.

Oh, the team had good teams and lost for a variety of reasons. The Dez Bryant rule was one reason...and losing twice to Green Bay by a total of less than 7 points for the two games is another. That is recently as well. The decline following the blow up after the dynasty took over 10 years. The NFL and cap situations were a lot different.

Know how long it took San Francisco or even a Green Bay to overcome their lean years? Of course you don't...you don't even look.

Talk about agenda and not even being realistic about the present.

Jerry had a deep need to trust in his head coach, ever since the Jimmy days of becoming a Benedict Arnold...but they BOTH had to pay for that public divorce.

...Jason Garrett had two NFC leading teams to his credit, but he couldn't lead the team to a NFC Championship. That also doesn't further prove that all with Jerry is ignorance and naivete from stupidity...

If one chooses to howl at the moon, that is on him...as valid reason is presented, and YOU choose not to listen. That's because you enjoy trying to make an agenda - logic, not logic observed - presented and then is used as logical proof now. Not observing is not the basis of logic. Reproduceable points must be used.

As to coaching, that is to remain a valid question...as to present potential of a still improving and valid team...oh yea, it is there, BUT FOR THE LOOK.

You couldn't disprove the basis or actual relationship of the statistics...and that goes to evaluation of a particular draft. Instead repeating of stereotypes.

Can't handle refuting points with what is actually presented?

For the 4th time, the average for all teams, as to an average level for a draft, by all NFL teams is 77 games played in by drafted/free agents. That too biased for you?

Those can be looked up directly...too difficult to see where those lead? C'mon, 'voice crying in the wilderness,' prove your point and not by more attitude.

Don't call out the medicine man to dispel an evil spirit any more...

this team does have some talent on it's roster. This draft is very important, but one needs to learn how to judge effectiveness beyond 2 or 3 players that you seem to like.

One can follow whether or not a team is actually attempting to develop it's own drafted players, hence effectiveness in drafting, by total plays by a person in the season...care to look?

That was two tools...not attitude and hocus pocus, my friend.

CCBoy · Apr 19, 2020

big dog cowboy said:
Should be starters at some point? Not as likely as you might think. It's a little dated. But still works.

What the stats tell us about drafting positions by round

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

A draft with a strong QB at a 6th round, would render that particular draft an A, alone, but...

The year that Dallas drafted Dak Prescott, the Cowboys had a mega draft year...Dak, Elliott, Jaylon Smith, Brown, Collins *(2017)...must have been a hell of a draft.

Hey, it's only 2020 coming up after the obligatory 3 year wait.

CCBoy · Apr 19, 2020

Dallas Cowboys
(2017)

» Round 1: (No. 4 overall) Ezekiel Elliott, RB, 16 games/16 starts.
» Round 2: (34) Jaylon Smith, OLB, 0 games.
» Round 3: (67) Maliek Collins, DT, 17 games/14 starts.
» Round 4: (101) Charles Tapper, DE, 0 games; (135) Dak Prescott, QB, 17 games/17 starts.
» Round 6: (189) Anthony Brown, CB, 17 games/9 starts; (212) Kavon Frazier, SS, 10 games/0 starts; (216) Darius Jackson, RB, 0 games; (217) Rico Gathers, TE, 0 games.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...rades-dak-prescott-ezekiel-elliott-led-dallas

cowboyed · Apr 19, 2020

cern said:
There is no defense of jerry. All one need do is look at the cowboy with jimmy Johnson and then without jimmy. Jimmy was win oriented. He said nothing stays the same. You either getter better or worse. Every move jimmy made was for the team. Jerry is ego driven.
Jerry tried to make a point that he didn't care about tried and true blueprints for building a team. He was going to do things his way. His way failed. Year after year after...........

I am all for Jerry getting out of the GM business these days, just based on lack of objectivity, age and other business distractions. I think he is a great owner, inconsistent GM. The reason the Cowboys were Super Bowl successful in the early to mid-nineties was because Jerry and Jimmy worked well together as a team. When Jimmy left Switzer did help us win a Superbowl. If you want to dismiss Switzer's Super Bowl success by stating Jimmy left him a great team, just remember no team runs on auto-pilot.

Jimmy Johnson left the Cowboys and joined the Dolphins in 1996 under the condition that he would not only head coach but also be general manager. For all that power or authority he did ok but nowhere near what he and Jerry accomplished with the Cowboys together. His 4th year with the Dolphins was his last as a head coach in the NFL after that 55 point playoff loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jimmy Johnson is like Parcells. Beats to his own drum, can't cope with loss humiliation, runs out of patience and quits.

That stated Jimmy was an outstanding head coach and deserves the recognition including getting into the Hall of Fame. But let's be fair, his greatest success was with Jerry and that was also during team building and coaching mostly in the no salary cap and no free agency era that ended around 1994.

Diehardblues · Apr 19, 2020

If this thread is intended to simply promote our ownership and GM then that’s fine. Everyone is entitled to their moment in the sun.

But if this genuinely an analysis of the job or performance of this ownership and GM in football operations in last couple decades then it’s been grossly misrepresented.

tyke1doe · Apr 19, 2020

Six franchises have had longer Super Bowl droughts: 49ers (25 years), Washington (28 years), Bears (34 years), Raiders (36 years), Dolphins (46 years), and Jets (51 years). Another twelve teams have never won the Super Bowl: Bengals, Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Chargers, Falcons, Jaguars, Lions, Panthers, Texans, Titans/Oilers, and Vikings. This is not meant to apologize for Jones but rather put it in perspective that the Super Bowl is hard to win.

Interesting how you can make an argument by manipulating the data. I would think "Super Bowl drought" would be broader than those who won the Super Bowl. Uh, maybe, those teams that MAKE the Super Bowl. If you go by the later, take the 49ers, the Bears, the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Falcons, the Panthers and the Titans off the list. All of those teams have made the Super Bowl since Jones' Cowboys last won theirs.

And if we expand the argument to NFC/AFC Championships, take Chargers, Jaguars and the Jets off the list because they've reached the Championship Game since the Cowboys last did.

CCBoy · Apr 19, 2020

tyke1doe said:
Interesting how you can make an argument by manipulating the data. I would think "Super Bowl drought" would be broader than those who won the Super Bowl. Uh, maybe, those teams that MAKE the Super Bowl. If you go by the later, take the 49ers, the Bears, the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Falcons, the Panthers and the Titans off the list. All of those teams have made the Super Bowl since Jones' Cowboys last won theirs.

And if we expand the argument to NFC/AFC Championships, take Chargers, Jaguars and the Jets off the list because they've reached the Championship Game since the Cowboys last did.

The premise was on generation of players for the roster. That includes free agency, and very strongly the draft.

Simply put, no matter personal attachments for or with Jerry Jones, one can not argue that player acquisition does revolve and through the GM. Sorry, one can't argue against that. The status of current Scout and Coaching reviews does run through Jerry...and he puts his stamp upon what is agreed upon. He has built up a support team just for that...but he controls the process as such. Right now, that selection process is very good. Starting in the first rounds, Dallas has been almost the very top of line or next to it. The past three seasons, the evaluations of players has been strong and in 2017, the success pushed current status off the chart. No, Jerry was involved in that, but get this, he has learned to select those giving information...pretty good. He also has a system that he as the owner, actually listens to.

No, Jerry has learned HIS lessons...some fans haven't, yet.

My view isn't about Jerry, but where this team is right now...needing a few major pieces. The draft will allow for new strength to join, and free up the ability to sustain without sacrificing to player demands for always getting NFL high contracts.

With solid depth being developed in the now, the team can still grow. That is a team status here..

Hello Jesus, it's me again...I need your help once more. If there's a phone in heaven, put me on the line...I need to talk with Tom Landry!

Jumbo075 · Apr 19, 2020

CCBoy said:
This OP was not for venting rage about Jerry Jones for not winning more Lombardis recently...it's about what IS working and how that can affect direction with the current trends in drafting, free agency, and a new direction with a new Coaching staff. Not all coaching staffs during Jerry Jones ownership, have been completely incompetant…as to the current staff, we'll have to watch what is developing, and see how that is applied on the carpet.

A fan has to first, listen...

The hesitance that I've had for years in criticizing Jason Garrett is that I believe that he is the one primarily responsible for changing Jerry Jones mindset about the draft and player acquisitions. Prior to Garrett, Jerry was horrible in the draft. After Garrett came on board, there was a marked improvement in the player acquisition strategy. I don't know if that is because Garrett comes from a family background filled with scouting, or he simply understands player acquisition better. But despite Garrett's shortcomings as a coach, I do think he made an overall positive impact on the Jones family's strategy on acquiring players.

It will be interesting to see if the Giants have a turnaround on their draft performance with Garrett in the building. If they do, it will validate my overall impressions about the positive impact Garrett made with the Cowboys. It also goes a long way in explaining why Jerry was so reluctant to terminate the relationship with Garrett.

I am also curious if the Cowboys will maintain their stellar drafting habits over the past decade, or if they will falter. I tend to believe that the Jones family has fundamentally changed in how they view player acquisitions, and that with Stephen Jones fully entrenched, they will maintain their philosophy going into the future. We can hope that a better on-field (both at practice and game time) coach will be able to utilize the talent better than Coach Garrett did. But I'm still hesitant to be too hyper-critical of Garrett, simply because I think he was the catalyst for a positive change in the Cowboys. Too bad he sucked at coaching.

CCBoy · Apr 19, 2020

Jumbo075 said:
The hesitance that I've had for years in criticizing Jason Garrett is that I believe that he is the one primarily responsible for changing Jerry Jones mindset about the draft and player acquisitions. Prior to Garrett, Jerry was horrible in the draft. After Garrett came on board, there was a marked improvement in the player acquisition strategy. I don't know if that is because Garrett comes from a family background filled with scouting, or he simply understands player acquisition better. But despite Garrett's shortcomings as a coach, I do think he made an overall positive impact on the Jones family's strategy on acquiring players.

It will be interesting to see if the Giants have a turnaround on their draft performance with Garrett in the building. If they do, it will validate my overall impressions about the positive impact Garrett made with the Cowboys. It also goes a long way in explaining why Jerry was so reluctant to terminate the relationship with Garrett.

I am also curious if the Cowboys will maintain their stellar drafting habits over the past decade, or if they will falter. I tend to believe that the Jones family has fundamentally changed in how they view player acquisitions, and that with Stephen Jones fully entrenched, they will maintain their philosophy going into the future. We can hope that a better on-field (both at practice and game time) coach will be able to utilize the talent better than Coach Garrett did. But I'm still hesitant to be too hyper-critical of Garrett, simply because I think he was the catalyst for a positive change in the Cowboys. Too bad he sucked at coaching.

Hey, valid...in the now, we all have to wait and see. For me, it makes being a fan a lot easier...getting to watch, but with real hope!

JustChip · Apr 19, 2020

blueblood70 said:
ive said that about Jerry and the drought narrative many times..logic doesnt work all they keep saying is its been over 25years..add KC before last year was 50years between sbs, took philly 60years to get their first..i mean we are in drought no one likes it but we are waiting on our SIXTH and 9TH appearance..

thats perspective..

While that’s all true, riddle me this, what if those teams had the same GM for the entirety of their drought. Or for just the last 25 years? Not to mention Philly and KC has had waaayyyy more playoff appearances and success during the last 25 years of their drought.

I’m a realist and not one that considers anything less than a SB win is a failure. I realize there is a measure of luck and things just jelling for most teams to win a SB today. But as Gary Player said, “the harder you practice, the luckier you get.” The more a team is in the playoffs, the more chance they will have fortune befall them and they’ll get to the SB and win one. Jerry has failed on that front.

CCBoy · Apr 19, 2020

JustChip said:
While that’s all true, riddle me this, what if those teams had the same GM for the entirety of their drought. Or for just the last 25 years? Not to mention Philly and KC has had waaayyyy more playoff appearances and success during the last 25 years of their drought.

I’m a realist and not one that considers anything less than a SB win is a failure. I realize there is a measure of luck and things just jelling for most teams to win a SB today. But as Gary Player said, “the harder you practice, the luckier you get.” The more a team is in the playoffs, the more chance they will have fortune befall them and they’ll get to the SB and win one. Jerry has failed on that front.

That is a valid view for fans. Yet this fan, wonders things as: would the availability of a Yetur Gross Matos, DE, Penn St improve the ability for Dallas to come out with a top CB and DE, up front?

JustChip · Apr 19, 2020

CCBoy said:
First off...

Draft analytics shows that the Jimmy Johnson draft pick value chart is outdated. Can the Dallas Cowboys exploit this to win the 2020 NFL Draft?

https://thelandryhat.com/2020/04/15/blueprint-dallas-cowboys-win-2020-nfl-draft/

Now try and make some sense...

I made no comment on Jerry, the Talent Acquirer. I made an editorial statement of Jerry, the GM and Owner. The culture, chief of which is a lack of accountability, set by those last 2 has resulted in minimal playoff success regardless if of whether the Talent Evaluator has performed.

Regarding the Talent Evaluator role, things have largely been better to even good over the last few years. Personally, I credit Jason for changing Jerry in that. I have no doubt if Camp was the coach, we would’ve been saddled with Johnny Trainwreck. But if you’re going to give Jerry the credit for successes, you’ve got to give him blame for the failures. And in that Randy Gregory and Taco were colossal failures, regardless of whether Gregory comes back and plays at an All-Pro level. You don’t draft a player in today’s NFL with a high 2nd round pick that isn’t likely to be more than marginally productive for the first 4 years. His penchant as a Talent Acquirer to takes high risk moves has hampered this franchise.

How the Dallas Cowboys GM delivered an unexpected draft result

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