Fish: Why Overpaying Dak and the 13% Cap Rule are Myths

https://www.si.com/.amp-cowboys/nfl...buster-overpay-dak-prescott-nfl-team-cant-win

“But work with me here: Are believers in The "13.1-Percent Line'' purporting to suggest that had those Niners paid Steve Young 13.2 percent of the '94 cap, they would not have won the Super Bowl?

And if paying more than 13.1 percent is so limiting to a team, how did the 2009 Indianapolis Colts get to the Super Bowl while paying Peyton Manning 17.2 percent of the cap? How did the 2016 Atlanta Falcons with Ryan at quarterback get to the Super Bowl while paying the QB 15.44 percent of the cap? Did New England forge an all-time comeback to win because Atlanta violated some goofy "percentage''?”

“And here's another problem: The mention of "winning the Super Bowl.'' As if the singular measure of a QB's worth MUST BE winning it - when logically, it's Super Bowl CONTENTION for which teams should (and do) pay...

How many Super Bowls have these guys been to? How many Conference Championship Games? How many playoff entrants? How many 10-game winners? Shouldn't those achievements be part of the measurement - especially when if we say it's ONLY "win the Super Bowl,'' that means the other 31 starting QBs that year MUST be considered "over-paid wastes''?”

817Gill said:

https://www.si.com/.amp-cowboys/nfl...buster-overpay-dak-prescott-nfl-team-cant-win

“But work with me here: Are believers in The "13.1-Percent Line'' purporting to suggest that had those Niners paid Steve Young 13.2 percent of the '94 cap, they would not have won the Super Bowl?

And if paying more than 13.1 percent is so limiting to a team, how did the 2009 Indianapolis Colts get to the Super Bowl while paying Peyton Manning 17.2 percent of the cap? How did the 2016 Atlanta Falcons with Ryan at quarterback get to the Super Bowl while paying the QB 15.44 percent of the cap? Did New England forge an all-time comeback to win because Atlanta violated some goofy "percentage''?”

“And here's another problem: The mention of "winning the Super Bowl.'' As if the singular measure of a QB's worth MUST BE winning it - when logically, it's Super Bowl CONTENTION for which teams should (and do) pay...

How many Super Bowls have these guys been to? How many Conference Championship Games? How many playoff entrants? How many 10-game winners? Shouldn't those achievements be part of the measurement - especially when if we say it's ONLY "win the Super Bowl,'' that means the other 31 starting QBs that year MUST be considered "over-paid wastes''?”

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Steve Young was an absolute difference maker -the cap was new and had not had full effect - Peyton Manning really, they comparing Dak to Peyton now.

Matt Ryan - 1 year wonder team - then they dropped off the cliff.

By the way, you can pay a lot to a QB if he IS the difference maker and makes plays all game long.

That is not Dak!

aikemirv said:

Steve Young was an absolute difference maker -the cap was new and had not had full effect - Peyton Manning really, they comparing Dak to Peyton now.

Matt Ryan - 1 year wonder team - then they dropped off the cliff.

By the way, you can pay a lot to a QB if he IS the difference maker and makes plays all game long.

That is not Dak!

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Matt Ryan didn’t fall off a cliff lol Shanahan left and half their team was backups due to injury. Matt Ryan is a 7-9 QB in the league, most realistic people feel that Dak is one notch away from that tier of QB.

You can pay a top 7-9 QB that money and still be successful. Going to a SB and losing doesn’t verify that 13% rule. There’s plenty of guys who took their teams deep in the postseason with that cap amount, but since the ball didn’t bounce their way they are counted against. Like Mike’s saying here, the QB’s cap hits weren’t the reason those teams didn’t win one or two more game.

817Gill said:

Matt Ryan didn’t fall off a cliff lol Shanahan left and half their team was backups due to injury. Matt Ryan is a 7-9 QB in the league, most realistic people feel that Dak is one notch away from that tier of QB.

You can pay a top 7-9 QB that money and still be successful. Going to a SB and losing doesn’t verify that 13% rule. There’s plenty of guys who took their teams deep in the postseason with that cap amount, but since the ball didn’t bounce their way they are counted against. Like Mike’s saying here, the QB’s cap hits weren’t the reason those teams didn’t win one or two more game.

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My quote was Matt Ryan - 1 year wonder TEAM - then THEY dropped off a cliff

nothing about Ryan falling off a cliff - they did not maintain with his cap hit did they?

aikemirv said:

My quote was Matt Ryan - 1 year wonder TEAM - then THEY dropped off a cliff

nothing about Ryan falling off a cliff - they did not maintain with his cap hit did they?

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I think they have had pretty much the same core of players. Even gave Grady a huge extension. Biggest loss was probably Coleman

Didn't really see anything proven here. Sorry, Gill.

817Gill said:

https://www.si.com/.amp-cowboys/nfl...buster-overpay-dak-prescott-nfl-team-cant-win

“But work with me here: Are believers in The "13.1-Percent Line'' purporting to suggest that had those Niners paid Steve Young 13.2 percent of the '94 cap, they would not have won the Super Bowl?

And if paying more than 13.1 percent is so limiting to a team, how did the 2009 Indianapolis Colts get to the Super Bowl while paying Peyton Manning 17.2 percent of the cap? How did the 2016 Atlanta Falcons with Ryan at quarterback get to the Super Bowl while paying the QB 15.44 percent of the cap? Did New England forge an all-time comeback to win because Atlanta violated some goofy "percentage''?”

“And here's another problem: The mention of "winning the Super Bowl.'' As if the singular measure of a QB's worth MUST BE winning it - when logically, it's Super Bowl CONTENTION for which teams should (and do) pay...

How many Super Bowls have these guys been to? How many Conference Championship Games? How many playoff entrants? How many 10-game winners? Shouldn't those achievements be part of the measurement - especially when if we say it's ONLY "win the Super Bowl,'' that means the other 31 starting QBs that year MUST be considered "over-paid wastes''?”

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Yep yep yep...beat writers hang out on Cowboyzone too @Dale do tell...

The "Media" us ripping headlines from your Thread Titles list...

Pointing out 3 times in NFL history where paying hall of fame QB's 13+% didn't hurt their SB run does not prove doing so lessens the chances of making that SB run. It proves that you had better be sure you are paying the right QB though. Those guys were prolific passers and while Dak has some stats you know he's not passing the ball at their level.

What exactly was the 13% rule proven a myth?
Thats rock solid fact.

817Gill said:

https://www.si.com/.amp-cowboys/nfl...buster-overpay-dak-prescott-nfl-team-cant-win

“But work with me here: Are believers in The "13.1-Percent Line'' purporting to suggest that had those Niners paid Steve Young 13.2 percent of the '94 cap, they would not have won the Super Bowl?

And if paying more than 13.1 percent is so limiting to a team, how did the 2009 Indianapolis Colts get to the Super Bowl while paying Peyton Manning 17.2 percent of the cap? How did the 2016 Atlanta Falcons with Ryan at quarterback get to the Super Bowl while paying the QB 15.44 percent of the cap? Did New England forge an all-time comeback to win because Atlanta violated some goofy "percentage''?”

“And here's another problem: The mention of "winning the Super Bowl.'' As if the singular measure of a QB's worth MUST BE winning it - when logically, it's Super Bowl CONTENTION for which teams should (and do) pay...

How many Super Bowls have these guys been to? How many Conference Championship Games? How many playoff entrants? How many 10-game winners? Shouldn't those achievements be part of the measurement - especially when if we say it's ONLY "win the Super Bowl,'' that means the other 31 starting QBs that year MUST be considered "over-paid wastes''?”

Click to expand...

Fish needs to learn what an outlier is.

Also, Dak is no Peyton Manning.

817Gill said:

Matt Ryan didn’t fall off a cliff lol Shanahan left and half their team was backups due to injury. Matt Ryan is a 7-9 QB in the league, most realistic people feel that Dak is one notch away from that tier of QB.

You can pay a top 7-9 QB that money and still be successful. Going to a SB and losing doesn’t verify that 13% rule. There’s plenty of guys who took their teams deep in the postseason with that cap amount, but since the ball didn’t bounce their way they are counted against. Like Mike’s saying here, the QB’s cap hits weren’t the reason those teams didn’t win one or two more game.

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So you're saying when adversity (injury) hit the team, they couldn't make moves because Matt Ryan was getting so much of the cap. Got it.

BatteryPowered said:

So you're saying when adversity (injury) hit the team, they couldn't make moves because Matt Ryan was getting so much of the cap. Got it.

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If you would like to conveniently ignore multiple below average draft classes you’re more than welcome to. Seldom do teams suffer a rash of injuries and go out and sign and trade for all the replacements. You may be able to acquire a player or two like that, but in order to have depth and be able to use it effectively you need to draft and coach well.

Matt Ryan’s cap hit had nothing to do with 2/3 bad drafts in a row. No team is going to sustain success without drafting well, the Falcons had a great stretch where they nabbed a bunch of pro-bowlers, but whiffed too many times after.

You can look at any metric to see how successful the Cowboys have been drafting the last 8 years. 7 of the 8 first rounders became pro-bowlers or all-pros. This team routinely finds contributors in rounds 2-6 as well. We will have no problem sustaining a roster if we draft like we have been. If the 2020 draft is any indication, we are really one of the better personnel acquiring teams in the league without even using FA heavily.

You telling me signing Dak is going to impact the Cowboys player acquisition strategy of building through the draft and bargain bin in FA? Dak’s signing only becomes an impediment if him and multiple other pillars of the team woefully underperform. If they play like themselves and Mike can coach, this team should win double digit games every season and be viable SB contenders.

CATCH17 said:

Fish needs to learn what an outlier is.

Also, Dak is no Peyton Manning.

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Well if we are speaking about data, one of the issues with this whole cap percentage thing is the size of the total data pool as well as a variety of other logical fallacies. This percent rule was made by some journalist who saw some pattern in the numbers and decided it was some to-live-by truth with no consideration for context. It’s a convenient thing to use in an argument (ask Stephen Jones lol) if the other side isn’t aware of how data should be interpreted, but read this article and see if you follow. Here’s a quick snippet and link:

“The causal explanations are unsupported. If success comes from paying a quarterback less, the distribution should be bottom-heavy, dominated by quarterbacks earning less than 5% with very few outliers in double-digits.

Alternatively, it may be said that there is a "proven model" of paying quarterbacks in the 6-10% range, and therefore 15% won't work. But there are winning quarterbacks at 1.6% or less. How can a 50% increase on the "proven model" be considered an excessive divergence when the bottom end of that proven model is 300% higher than four historical winners?”

https://www.fieldgulls.com/platform...377/quarterback-salary-as-a-percentage-of-cap

One part I do agree with Fisher on is that it is monumentally silly to judge just on Super Bowl wins.
That's how Flacco become the by far the highest-paid QB

I would upgrade his quote a little though, from contenders to consistent serious Super Bowl contenders.
It is and always has been a numbers game--knock on the door enough and your odds go up.

Guys like Brees and Rodgers have been far great than Flacco, Eli, or Brad Johnson, for example, but they (and team) don't have more SB trophies. And I'd argue that there are a ton of QB better than any of those guys (yes even Eli) who have never had a sniff of a Super Bowl.

Its not just a 13% rule. Most of the guys who have won have been well below that. People like Fish want to muddy the waters but the reality is that having your QB on a bargain contract is a huge advantage. I hope no one is seriously debating that concept.

doomsday9084 said:

Its not just a 13% rule. Most of the guys who have won have been well below that. People like Fish want to muddy the waters but the reality is that having your QB on a bargain contract is a huge advantage. I hope no one is seriously debating that concept.

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Yeah, Wilson and Mahomes are two good recent examples...Goff too as runner-up for that matter. Flacco won on his rookie deal..never to be seen again after his big payday. The Eagles won it with low QB cap figures too.

Definitely a missed window to not advance deep while Dak was on his rookie deal.

Hardline said:

What exactly was the 13% rule proven a myth?
Thats rock solid fact.

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You need that so badly to be true. When hating Dak is so much of your life, the fake facts mean so much.

JoeKing said:

You need that so badly to be true. When hating Dak is so much of your life, the fake facts mean so much.

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I don't hate Dak.
I rarely think of Dak.
The 13% is established fact.
Prove me wrong.

charron said:

Pointing out 3 times in NFL history where paying hall of fame QB's 13+% didn't hurt their SB run does not prove doing so lessens the chances of making that SB run. It proves that you had better be sure you are paying the right QB though. Those guys were prolific passers and while Dak has some stats you know he's not passing the ball at their level.

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https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/the-nfl-131-percent-salary-cap-bugaboo-is-it-true-515