Fish: Why Overpaying Dak and the 13% Cap Rule are Myths

BigCatMonaco

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I don't hate Dak.
I rarely think of Dak.
The 13% is established fact.
Prove me wrong.




That whole 13% thing is completely overblown.

Prior to 2013, there were only 3 seasons where any QB made more than 13% of the cap.

The league started paying QBs differently due to all the rule changes.


“Several times a team at least appeared in the super bowl despite paying a player in excess of the bugaboo amount. In 2016, Atlanta with Ryan at quarterback got to the big game despite paying Ryan 15.44 percent of the cap. Absent the furious comeback staged by NE, the 13.1 percent bugaboo would already have been broken.

In 2015, Carolina paid Charles Johnson, a DE, 13.78 percent of the cap. In 2013, Denver paid Manning 13.15 percent, which beats Young’s record. In 2009, Indianapolis got to the super bowl despite paying Peyton Manning a staggering 17.2 percent of the cap.”



https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/the-nfl-131-percent-salary-cap-bugaboo-is-it-true-515
 

JoeKing

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I don't hate Dak.
I rarely think of Dak.
The 13% is established fact.
Prove me wrong.
Deny it all you want, we still know otherwise. I don't need to prove anything, you reveal your hate for Dak in your posts.
 

CowboyRoy

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https://www.si.com/.amp-cowboys/nfl...buster-overpay-dak-prescott-nfl-team-cant-win

“But work with me here: Are believers in The "13.1-Percent Line'' purporting to suggest that had those Niners paid Steve Young 13.2 percent of the '94 cap, they would not have won the Super Bowl?

And if paying more than 13.1 percent is so limiting to a team, how did the 2009 Indianapolis Colts get to the Super Bowl while paying Peyton Manning 17.2 percent of the cap? How did the 2016 Atlanta Falcons with Ryan at quarterback get to the Super Bowl while paying the QB 15.44 percent of the cap? Did New England forge an all-time comeback to win because Atlanta violated some goofy "percentage''?”

“And here's another problem: The mention of "winning the Super Bowl.'' As if the singular measure of a QB's worth MUST BE winning it - when logically, it's Super Bowl CONTENTION for which teams should (and do) pay...

How many Super Bowls have these guys been to? How many Conference Championship Games? How many playoff entrants? How many 10-game winners? Shouldn't those achievements be part of the measurement - especially when if we say it's ONLY "win the Super Bowl,'' that means the other 31 starting QBs that year MUST be considered "over-paid wastes''?”

There is no rule and there is no legitimate evidence supporting a rule.
 

CowboyRoy

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Matt Ryan didn’t fall off a cliff lol Shanahan left and half their team was backups due to injury. Matt Ryan is a 7-9 QB in the league, most realistic people feel that Dak is one notch away from that tier of QB.

You can pay a top 7-9 QB that money and still be successful. Going to a SB and losing doesn’t verify that 13% rule. There’s plenty of guys who took their teams deep in the postseason with that cap amount, but since the ball didn’t bounce their way they are counted against. Like Mike’s saying here, the QB’s cap hits weren’t the reason those teams didn’t win one or two more game.

Doesn't matter how much you pay the QB if you don't have the team or the coach. We saw that first hand. Also doesn't matter if you mismanage the rest of the cap. Dak was averaging 1m a season for 4 years and we didn't get past the 2nd round.

The "rule" that isn't a rule is the most useless stat you can put up there. As noted several times and there was even an entire thread on it. In the last 15 years there is been an average of like 2 QB's a year that are even over 13% and in many years there are ZERO QB's over 13%.

So the sample size is so small its completely meaningless. Now if you had half the QB's over 13% for the last 5 years and no one has won a SB? Ok, then the rule would have some credence.

However there aren't, and therefore it doesn't.
 

CowboyRoy

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I don't hate Dak.
I rarely think of Dak.
The 13% is established fact.
Prove me wrong.

There has simply NOT been enough QB's over 13% on a yearly basis to justify any rule. There is no rule.

Your rule is the equivalent of saying that you cant win a SB with an Asian QB. Simply not enough data to make a legitimate rule.

But if you want to call it a troll rule, then by all means another meaningless rule.
 

817Gill

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There has simply NOT been enough QB's over 13% on a yearly basis to justify any rule. There is no rule.

Your rule is the equivalent of saying that you cant win a SB with an Asian QB. Simply not enough data to make a legitimate rule.

But if you want to call it a troll rule, then by all means another meaningless rule.
Beautiful
 

ABQCOWBOY

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I am literally more stupid for having read that. I, and I'm sure many other's on this board, did not believe that was possible.

My getting even dumber, I mean..........
 

DandyDon52

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Matt Ryan didn’t fall off a cliff lol Shanahan left and half their team was backups due to injury. Matt Ryan is a 7-9 QB in the league, most realistic people feel that Dak is one notch away from that tier of QB.

You can pay a top 7-9 QB that money and still be successful. Going to a SB and losing doesn’t verify that 13% rule. There’s plenty of guys who took their teams deep in the postseason with that cap amount, but since the ball didn’t bounce their way they are counted against. Like Mike’s saying here, the QB’s cap hits weren’t the reason those teams didn’t win one or two more game.
If the rule were bogus as some think, then some qb's over 13% would have won a SB in the past 20-25 years.
If one did or does win one, then it does not debunk the rule, because it is only 1 time. It would have to happen several times to debunk it.

you also cant look at individual SB games and say well they didnt lose because of the 13 % rule it was this or that.
The rule is a generalization that isnt set in stone, it just says most of the time if you pay more than that odds of you winning a SB are very slim, like
micro thin.
It can be done, but the fact that it hasnt in 20 years says that paying over 13% is not a smart move.

I am curious to see what happens with KC once mahomes gets his payday, which should be over the 13%.
They will start to lose players when they extend him, and then we will see if he is good enough to keep winning SB's

Rodgers is a very good qb and was said to be the best before mahomes, and he never made it back to a SB, much less win one.

And what fish says about just being good, getting to champ game , playoffs , just getting to SB and losing, well that is nice and a accomplishment,
but the SB win is what every team and fan wants.That is what it is all about.
Buffalo went to the SB 4 times in a row, something no team has every done before or since, and you dont see anyone talking about them being a great team, lol including fish. He probably hasnt ever said anything about that team.
 

kskboys

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If the rule were bogus as some think, then some qb's over 13% would have won a SB in the past 20-25 years.
If one did or does win one, then it does not debunk the rule, because it is only 1 time. It would have to happen several times to debunk it.

you also cant look at individual SB games and say well they didnt lose because of the 13 % rule it was this or that.
The rule is a generalization that isnt set in stone, it just says most of the time if you pay more than that odds of you winning a SB are very slim, like
micro thin.
It can be done, but the fact that it hasnt in 20 years says that paying over 13% is not a smart move.

I am curious to see what happens with KC once mahomes gets his payday, which should be over the 13%.
They will start to lose players when they extend him, and then we will see if he is good enough to keep winning SB's

Rodgers is a very good qb and was said to be the best before mahomes, and he never made it back to a SB, much less win one.

And what fish says about just being good, getting to champ game , playoffs , just getting to SB and losing, well that is nice and a accomplishment,
but the SB win is what every team and fan wants.That is what it is all about.
Buffalo went to the SB 4 times in a row, something no team has every done before or since, and you dont see anyone talking about them being a great team, lol including fish. He probably hasnt ever said anything about that team.
Nicely done.

It's not an exact amount, it's simply a fact that overpaying too many players leads to earlier playoff exits. Why? Because when you overpay players, you're going to start having subpar starters and terrible backups. And for a serious super bowl run, you're going to come up against teams that are able to exploit those subpar starters. And it's almost impossible to make it through a season and a super bowl run w/o injuries, making it instrumental to have decent backups. Paying a few starters huge amounts keeps you from having those players that are an absolute necessity for a deep playoff run.
 

Sage3030

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What I take from this is Pat Mahomes should not be re-signed or signed by anyone, as he won’t win a Super Bowl once he does.

“Might as well just retire now Pat. You already got yours while on your rookie deal so now we have to go get another QB and hope he’s as good as you were when you played on your rookie deal in the league. Your time to shine was now and you did, but you’ll be taking more than 13% and we want to win another super bowl, so bye!” said no KC fan ever.
 

Flamma

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What I take from this is Pat Mahomes should not be re-signed or signed by anyone, as he won’t win a Super Bowl once he does.

“Might as well just retire now Pat. You already got yours while on your rookie deal so now we have to go get another QB and hope he’s as good as you were when you played on your rookie deal in the league. Your time to shine was now and you did, but you’ll be taking more than 13% and we want to win another super bowl, so bye!” said no KC fan ever.

Keep in mind that winning a SB or championship in any major sport is not always priority #1 for owners. You don't always have to be the best and spend the most to make a lot of money. Have some big names, keep your team popular, and that alone can do the trick.

Of course they're going to sign Mahomes. People love him. They won't care if he takes up 25% of the cap. And if anyone can win a championship despite the percentage, the Chiefs can. They have a very good coach too. But that doesn't make it any easier. It's not the same as if he was on a rookie deal.
 

DandyDon52

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Keep in mind that winning a SB or championship in any major sport is not always priority #1 for owners. You don't always have to be the best and spend the most to make a lot of money. Have some big names, keep your team popular, and that alone can do the trick.

Of course they're going to sign Mahomes. People love him. They won't care if he takes up 25% of the cap. And if anyone can win a championship despite the percentage, the Chiefs can. They have a very good coach too. But that doesn't make it any easier. It's not the same as if he was on a rookie deal.
I think it is a priority, they just dont know how to build a sb team, but it isnt for lack of trying.
Cleveland tries hard to build a team, they just are not very good at it.

Mahomes is good , so good they maybe can win another one after he is paid, it will be interesting to see how that works out.
 

DandyDon52

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What I take from this is Pat Mahomes should not be re-signed or signed by anyone, as he won’t win a Super Bowl once he does.

“Might as well just retire now Pat. You already got yours while on your rookie deal so now we have to go get another QB and hope he’s as good as you were when you played on your rookie deal in the league. Your time to shine was now and you did, but you’ll be taking more than 13% and we want to win another super bowl, so bye!” said no KC fan ever.
mahomes could be the exception to the rule while he is young, because he is so good, he is way above all the other qb's.
it will be something to watch, how much he gets, what his % is and what happens after he is paid.
And sure fans want to keep him, no matter how much they have to pay him, but the average fan has no knowledge of the
13% rule or a lot of the things we talk about here.
They dont think about the cap or all the ins and outs of that sort of stuff, they just watch the games and cheer.
 

Sage3030

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mahomes could be the exception to the rule while he is young, because he is so good, he is way above all the other qb's.
it will be something to watch, how much he gets, what his % is and what happens after he is paid.
And sure fans want to keep him, no matter how much they have to pay him, but the average fan has no knowledge of the
13% rule or a lot of the things we talk about here.
They dont think about the cap or all the ins and outs of that sort of stuff, they just watch the games and cheer.

The exception? I’d say that’s incorrect. When Aaron Rodgers got paid, they won a Super Bowl AFTER that while he was on that contract. They went back after he got his second contract as well. Eli got a big payday, then went on to win. It isn’t going to stop a team from winning the Super Bowl.
 

CATCH17

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What I take from this is Pat Mahomes should not be re-signed or signed by anyone, as he won’t win a Super Bowl once he does.

“Might as well just retire now Pat. You already got yours while on your rookie deal so now we have to go get another QB and hope he’s as good as you were when you played on your rookie deal in the league. Your time to shine was now and you did, but you’ll be taking more than 13% and we want to win another super bowl, so bye!” said no KC fan ever.

He would be an outlier if he does win a title with a massive contract like that.

He might do it though because he is the best QB talent we’ve probably ever seen.

Rodgers however might be the 2nd best QB talent we have ever seen and he still only has 1 title after getting paid.

If these great talents struggle how is Dak going to do? He is Mr. Everything needs to be Optimal around me.
 

Clarke82

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Be very careful about taking Fisher's word on statistics to heart. I remember when he was a feature writer for Dallas Cowboys Weekly and he constantly had facts that were blatantly wrong. He sees some stat and runs with it without any regard to it's accuracy.

On the other hand if, Mike says the Cowboys are in on Jamal Adams or talks with Dak are heating up, I would tend to believe him.
 

kskboys

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What I take from this is Pat Mahomes should not be re-signed or signed by anyone, as he won’t win a Super Bowl once he does.

“Might as well just retire now Pat. You already got yours while on your rookie deal so now we have to go get another QB and hope he’s as good as you were when you played on your rookie deal in the league. Your time to shine was now and you did, but you’ll be taking more than 13% and we want to win another super bowl, so bye!” said no KC fan ever.
I guess, if you subscribe to a completely polarized viewpoint. Isn't there any room in your brain for a middle ground?
 

kskboys

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He would be an outlier if he does win a title with a massive contract like that.

He might do it though because he is the best QB talent we’ve probably ever seen.

Rodgers however might be the 2nd best QB talent we have ever seen and he still only has 1 title after getting paid.

If these great talents struggle how is Dak going to do? He is Mr. Everything needs to be Optimal around me.
Rodgers was on a 6 years/63.52 contract when he won the super bowl in 11. The salary cap in 2011 was 120 mill. So, I'd conclude that doesn't fit the argument. What's that, like 8% of the cap?
 

Jake

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Fish has a lot of experience when it comes to myths.
 
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