Will the Salary Cap Go Down?

60-70% of the NFL revenue comes from tv contracts which is paid by the average fan via cable, dish, etc subscription. Last time I checked just about every American has tv or some device to view games, and if they are forced to stay home they will be watching the games. This increase in viewership will offset any game day revenue.

Dak will not bend to Jerry, he will make Jerry touch his feet.

Someone can correct me if I am wrong but it doesn't work like this. The NFL doesn't get a "cut" of commercial revenue. They have a fixed contract with the TV stations. Regardless of how many people watch, the NFL gets the same amount of money.

Beyond that, businesses are hurting. Not sure commercial revenue is going to be that great.

Regardless, if fans don't play at the games the cap IS coming down. It doesn't have to be everywhere. The league shares a percentage of revenue and cap is set as a percentage of aggregate. If fans don't go to games in Los Angeles, the Cowboys' cap is coming down.

This deserves its own thread. The NBA is estimating a 40% cap reduction next year. There are numbers floating around of the NFL coming down $20 to $80 million dollars. I know a LOT of people don't like this discussion but the reality is that it does affect the Dak contract. If the cap just comes way down, NFL teams might have to start cutting people left and right just to get below it. Any team that is in a good cap position is going to be able to take advantage.

What makes the most sense at this point is for Dak to play on the tag. Too many unknowns for a huge long term deal.

There is zero change that any increase in viewership will offset the loss of gate revenue. Simple economics.

The cap will go down it is always predicated on how well of a business the NFL is doing and with ball sports in general trending down even before the pandemic it will accelerate the downturn in money. It is pretty simple less revenue for the sport the less the players get paid.

@doomsday9084 I imagine if the cap went down say 25% that all contracts would drop by a similar percentage. The league might exempt those at the bottom and take a little more from the richer players.

If the cap were to drop $50M I doubt any QB would get over $25M. Contracts would be capped.

Redzone bears keeping an eye on. I watch bootleg Redzone live and tape the Cowboy game if on a national network. NFL and their networks get squat from me. Many might start doing this which will upset the sports networks.

ninja said:

@doomsday9084 I imagine if the cap went down say 25% that all contracts would drop by a similar percentage. The league might exempt those at the bottom and take a little more from the richer players.

If the cap were to drop $50M I doubt any QB would get over $25M. Contracts would be capped.

Redzone bears keeping an eye on. I watch bootleg Redzone live and tape the Cowboy game if on a national network. NFL and their networks get squat from me. Many might start doing this which will upset the sports networks.

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The NBA has a good relationship with its union and is trying to work out a system to handle this. Even there, they are struggling. I doubt the NFL has a mechanism in the CBA to automatically scale down all contracts in the event that the cap goes down. That will have to be agreed upon by the union. Think about all of the ramifications of that. A lot of cap hits are from previously paid guaranteed money, like signing bonuses. Do players have to pay back a percentage? Many of them don't have that money anymore.

I could see that negotiation getting really rough. If the league doesn't get an agreement with the union, their only recourse would be to pay all existing contracts as is and just start cutting people to hit the new cap.

In no situation will the cap drop. First, there is no guarantee we’ll have a fanless season, so there may be no revenue drop to begin with.

If that is the case, they league and NFLPA would simply get together and negotiate an easing of the cap. With the new CBA increasing the players’ share of revenue along with the addition of 2 playoff games and the expansion to a 17 game season coinciding with new TV deals in 2022, we’re likely looking at over $100 million in cap growth by 2023.

They would simply “borrow” cap from future years to offset revenue loss as it relates to the cap. This would either flatten the cap and keep it stagnate or stretch that cap growth beginning next year instead of yearly calculations once the deals are in place.

ksg811 said:

In no situation will the cap drop. First, there is no guarantee we’ll have a fanless season, so there may be no revenue drop to begin with.

If that is the case, they league and NFLPA would simply get together and negotiate an easing of the cap. With the new CBA increasing the players’ share of revenue along with the addition of 2 playoff games and the expansion to a 17 game season coinciding with new TV deals in 2022, we’re likely looking at over $100 million in cap growth by 2023.

They would simply “borrow” cap from future years to offset revenue loss as it relates to the cap. This would either flatten the cap and keep it stagnate or stretch that cap growth beginning next year instead of yearly calculations once the deals are in place.

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Sure hope the cap does not go down. Dallas is ready to make a run at being the Champs and need every penny they can get.

ksg811 said:

In no situation will the cap drop. First, there is no guarantee we’ll have a fanless season, so there may be no revenue drop to begin with.

If that is the case, they league and NFLPA would simply get together and negotiate an easing of the cap. With the new CBA increasing the players’ share of revenue along with the addition of 2 playoff games and the expansion to a 17 game season coinciding with new TV deals in 2022, we’re likely looking at over $100 million in cap growth by 2023.

They would simply “borrow” cap from future years to offset revenue loss as it relates to the cap. This would either flatten the cap and keep it stagnate or stretch that cap growth beginning next year instead of yearly calculations once the deals are in place.

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I think they will simply agree to freeze the cap at the current level for a year. Every team is in the same boat. The league cannot just apply the formula and reduce the cap. It would cause havoc for every team. I see zero chance the league and NFLPA allows this to even become an issue. On the list of things I’m worried about, this is at or near the bottom along with Dwayne Haskins becoming the best QB in the NFC East.

Dak_Attack_09 said:

60-70% of the NFL revenue comes from tv contracts which is paid by the average fan via cable, dish, etc subscription. Last time I checked just about every American has tv or some device to view games, and if they are forced to stay home they will be watching the games. This increase in viewership will offset any game day revenue.

Dak will not bend to Jerry, he will make Jerry touch his feet.

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big dog cowboy said:

There is zero change that any increase in viewership will offset the loss of gate revenue. Simple economics.

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If you figure 70,000 per game at 16 games, that is only 1,120,000 people watching games. figure if only 2 per household, as many fans go in at least 2 together. Then it is 560,000. How many of them will just be PO'd and not watch, except maybe their team they can't go watch in person.

Others that normally watch, may say, this is boring without the fan noise. Eventually will go do other stuff.

However, since the Contracts are not up for that, 2 years, it is way too early to consider anything. The networks will hurt from places not wanting to pay the ad prices, unless they are already a signed contract. Not sure how that works. Can't see it effecting the cap as it is too soon to know how it plays out.

big dog cowboy said:

There is zero change that any increase in viewership will offset the loss of gate revenue. Simple economics.

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Yea people are gonna stop watch tv

MonsterD said:

The cap will go down it is always predicated on how well of a business the NFL is doing and with ball sports in general trending down even before the pandemic it will accelerate the downturn in money. It is pretty simple less revenue for the sport the less the players get paid.

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Will tv viewership go up or down?
Up.
Is CBA revenue majority generated by tv contracts?
Yes
Do they get to revise contracts based on viewership ?
Yes
What sources or facts are reporters using to project future economic outlook for the NFL? The game day which only accounts for 1/3 and they will allow fans to attend game.


Nothing more than scare factor media is hyping up for views.

jazzcat22 said:

If you figure 70,000 per game at 16 games, that is only 1,120,000 people watching games. figure if only 2 per household, as many fans go in at least 2 together. Then it is 560,000. How of them will just be PO'd and not watch, except maybe their team they can't go watch in person.

Others that normally watch, may say, this is boring without the fan noise. Eventually will go do other stuff.

However, since the Contracts are not up for that, 2 years, it is way too early to consider anything. The networks will hurt from places not wanting to pay the ad prices, unless they are already a signed contract. Not sure how that works. Can't see it effecting the cap as it is too soon to know how it plays out.

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Total opposite their will be half capacity at all stadiums Minimum, which will be enough noise with stadium sound system.

Will tv viewership go up or down?
Up.
Is CBA revenue majority generated by tv contracts?
Yes
Do they get to revise contracts based on viewership ?
Yes
What sources or facts are reporters using to project future economic outlook for the NFL? The game day which only accounts for 1/3 and they will allow fans to attend game.


Nothing more than scare factor media is hyping up for views.

Dak_Attack_09 said:

Total opposite their will be half capacity at all stadiums Minimum, which will be enough noise with stadium sound system.

Will tv viewership go up or down?
Up.
Is CBA revenue majority generated by tv contracts?
Yes
Do they get to revise contracts based on viewership ?
Yes
What sources or facts are reporters using to project future economic outlook for the NFL? The game day which only accounts for 1/3 and they will allow fans to attend game.


Nothing more than scare factor media is hyping up for views.

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Each NFL team gets $255m from its TV contracts. That number is fixed regardless of how many people watch. They are up for renegotiation in 2022.

Your take on this situation is not accurate. If fans can't come to games, the cap goes down.

Dak_Attack_09 said:

60-70% of the NFL revenue comes from tv contracts which is paid by the average fan via cable, dish, etc subscription. Last time I checked just about every American has tv or some device to view games, and if they are forced to stay home they will be watching the games. This increase in viewership will offset any game day revenue.

Dak will not bend to Jerry, he will make Jerry touch his feet.

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The TV contracts are negotiated based on what the Networks expect to make after the contracts are signed.

If the contract were being negotatiated in 2020 or 2021 then the Covid lockout might impact the NFL; however, if I recall correctly they just recently signed a new multi-year deal with the networks.

If fans can't attend games then the gate revenue will drop obviously. That makes up a portion of the salary cap; therefore the cap could go down for 2021.

Players existing contracts are not impacted other than teams might cut players because of cap problems.

Players/agents up for a new contract might want to go ahead and get that contract signed just in case there is zero gate revenue for the 2020 season...