Dak Prescott negotiations - how does the math add up?

dragon_mikal · May 28, 2020

Rayman70 said:
heres how the math adds up. You either pay the man, or we will not win 5 games this year. That's what is at risk here. I'm not sayin pay him 40 mil per, I'm saying, just get the years right, give him around 36 mil per, and be done with it.

They’ll be fine.

gjkoeppen · May 28, 2020

TheSkaven said:
Sorry to create another Dak thread, ladies and gentlemen, but I believe that this one will add value to the public discourse.

Can one of you math geniuses help me to understand the Dak Prescott / Todd France negotiation strategy? Because for me, the numbers are not adding up.

I tried to provide links to source everything mentioned below.

In the summer of 2019, the Cowboys offered Dak a deal in the $30 million per year range. Some outlets report that he was actually offered $33 million per year.

He rejected the deal and instead played out the final year of his rookie contract, in which he earned $2.025 million dollars. This is about $28 million in lost earnings for 2019, or $31 million if the Clarence Hill report is correct.

According to reports, there is a new offer in the table now. It’s a $175 million dollar deal which pays Dak $35 million per year.

Dak has rejected this offer as well. If no deal is done, he will play on the franchise tag which will pay him $31.4 million dollars, a difference of $3.6 million dollars.

Can someone please help me understand this negotiating strategy and why it makes financial sense? That’s not even mentioning the enormous risk Dak is taking that he could get injured.

Let’s assume first that the Cowboys cave in July and Dak gets $35 million per year over 4 years. That means he’ll earn $5 million more than he would have if he signed the deal offered in August 2019.

Over the lifetime of the contract, 4 years, he will make $20 million more than he would have if he signed the original offer. But he’s out $28 million, so he’s at a net loss of $8 million!! And this assumes he was offered $30 million per year, because if he turned down $33 million, it looks even worse!

I’m assuming that the two signing bonuses are about the same, since the way they’re talking about the contract value ($140M, $175M, etc) it all works out the same.

Please chime in because I must be missing something.

My only thought is that perhaps the two sides are further apart than we know and this isn’t just about length of contract. To get back the money he lost, I mean just to break even, he’s need a contract that averages $37 million per year and obviously break even isn’t good enough or he would have signed the first deal offered.

I think that Dak’s agent wants $40 million per year - this has actually been reported. If he gets $40 million or $42 million per year, yeah, his agent’s tactics do indeed make sense.

So, bonus question for those who day “sign Dak now”, are you still for signing him at $40 million per year?

Thiughts are appreciated!!

First off all of the amounts and length of contracts except the one made just prior to week 1 last season are wrong, just gestimates and speculation. Everyone who is actually involved with the negotiations have said very recently that they all are untrue. Along with the dollar amounts the number of years has been widely speculated too. Because both Jerry and Stephen have said that they hope to get Prescott locked up for several years , many of the "insiders" say that it means they are pushing for a 5 - 7 year deal. The same "insiders" have said that Prescott is looking for only a 3 - 4 year deal. Most times in the NFL if a contract is of a shorter time like only 3 years the dollar amount is a little lower and the amount of guaranteed money is less. Also as far as 7 year deals, there hasn't been a 7 year deal done in several years, so my guess is the Cowboys have always been pushing for a 5 year deal. It's also just my guess that the Cowboys have offered a 4 year deal but at a lower dollar amount than what Prescott's agent would accept and for less guaranteed money.

Just like I just did by guessing, so is EVERYONE ELSE. To start all of these multiple Prescott threads everyday is just plain foolishness because NOBODY has any actual true accurate numbers to work with. IT'S ALL JUST GUESSWORK. The ONLY thing we can do is wait until either a long term deal is done or Prescott signs the tag and stop doing all this guesswork.
.

Rayman70 · May 28, 2020

J-man said:
It's not dollars it's years. Dak wants to be able to re-up in 4 years.

YEP ITS ALWAYS BEEN THE YEARS. The shock jocks like Mike Fisher and Colin Cowturd and many others, are perpetuating fake news. They seem to be throwing out fake numbers. Dak is being used for ratings. ESPN is maybe the worst, desperate for relevancy, they are Daks pimp basically right now. Problem is, Dak wants no part of it. Journalism is all but dead.

J-man · May 28, 2020

Rayman70 said:
YEP ITS ALWAYS BEEN THE YEARS. The shock jocks like Mike Fisher and Colin Cowturd and many others, are perpetuating fake news. They seem to be throwing out fake numbers. Dak is being used for ratings. ESPN is maybe the worst, desperate for relevancy, they are Daks pimp basically right now. Problem is, Dak wants no part of it. Journalism is all but dead.

yeah man the Cowboys and their players have always been ratings ****** (ladies of the night) for the networks.

Sandyf · May 28, 2020

TheSkaven said:
Sorry to create another Dak thread, ladies and gentlemen, but I believe that this one will add value to the public discourse.

Can one of you math geniuses help me to understand the Dak Prescott / Todd France negotiation strategy? Because for me, the numbers are not adding up.

I tried to provide links to source everything mentioned below.

In the summer of 2019, the Cowboys offered Dak a deal in the $30 million per year range. Some outlets report that he was actually offered $33 million per year.

He rejected the deal and instead played out the final year of his rookie contract, in which he earned $2.025 million dollars. This is about $28 million in lost earnings for 2019, or $31 million if the Clarence Hill report is correct.

According to reports, there is a new offer in the table now. It’s a $175 million dollar deal which pays Dak $35 million per year.

Dak has rejected this offer as well. If no deal is done, he will play on the franchise tag which will pay him $31.4 million dollars, a difference of $3.6 million dollars.

Can someone please help me understand this negotiating strategy and why it makes financial sense? That’s not even mentioning the enormous risk Dak is taking that he could get injured.

Let’s assume first that the Cowboys cave in July and Dak gets $35 million per year over 4 years. That means he’ll earn $5 million more than he would have if he signed the deal offered in August 2019.

Over the lifetime of the contract, 4 years, he will make $20 million more than he would have if he signed the original offer. But he’s out $28 million, so he’s at a net loss of $8 million!! And this assumes he was offered $30 million per year, because if he turned down $33 million, it looks even worse!

I’m assuming that the two signing bonuses are about the same, since the way they’re talking about the contract value ($140M, $175M, etc) it all works out the same.

Please chime in because I must be missing something.

My only thought is that perhaps the two sides are further apart than we know and this isn’t just about length of contract. To get back the money he lost, I mean just to break even, he’s need a contract that averages $37 million per year and obviously break even isn’t good enough or he would have signed the first deal offered.

I think that Dak’s agent wants $40 million per year - this has actually been reported. If he gets $40 million or $42 million per year, yeah, his agent’s tactics do indeed make sense.

So, bonus question for those who day “sign Dak now”, are you still for signing him at $40 million per year?

Thiughts are appreciated!!

My question would be that if Mahomes gets 45 million plus and that is the new market then is 40 a good number. And before people say Mahomes isn't getting 45 know that his agent is starting at 50 per year.

BatteryPowered · May 29, 2020

Sandyf said:
My question would be that if Mahomes gets 45 million plus and that is the new market then is 40 a good number. And before people say Mahomes isn't getting 45 know that his agent is starting at 50 per year.

I don't think the Mahomes contract means squat when it comes to the Dak negotiations. Dak is locked in at 31 million this year and (if they tag him a second time) 37 million next year. By then, what Dak is will be known. If he progresses as most QBs do...they will have to pay him. If he levels off...let him hit the market. They just need to prepare for him hitting the market.

I also don't believe the 45 million in year 5 story. Why would Jerry say no to that? You structure the guaranteed money to all hit years 1-4. If he is as good as they think he is, who cares what the year 5 number is? Extend him in year 4 and soften the cap hit. Personally, I think one of two things is true. Either Dak simply refuses to ever sign a contract longer than 4 years or they are far apart on the money. I just wonder how long this goes before Jerry decides to call Dak's bluff.

DandyDon52 · May 29, 2020

TheSkaven said:
OK, thanks I appreciate this response. Someone else wrote the same thing and I said that I don’t buy it. Looks like I might have been wrong.

Are you 100% sure? It’s just hard to believe. So it’s August 2019, you’re scheduled to make $2M and I add an extension so you’re making $35M per year. You’re OK with earning $2M this year and not starting to get your new salary until 2020?

You could very well be right but that just sounds wrong.

your thinking too logical lol .
the player would get a bonus as soon as he signs, so if they had done it dak could have got a 25 mil bonus upon signing
which is sort of like getting a raise at that point.
But the owners dont want to give up that cheap last year lol. thats how they became billionaires to begin with.

DandyDon52 · May 29, 2020

BatteryPowered said:
I don't think the Mahomes contract means squat when it comes to the Dak negotiations. Dak is locked in at 31 million this year and (if they tag him a second time) 37 million next year. By then, what Dak is will be known. If he progresses as most QBs do...they will have to pay him. If he levels off...let him hit the market. They just need to prepare for him hitting the market.

I also don't believe the 45 million in year 5 story. Why would Jerry say no to that? You structure the guaranteed money to all hit years 1-4. If he is as good as they think he is, who cares what the year 5 number is? Extend him in year 4 and soften the cap hit. Personally, I think one of two things is true. Either Dak simply refuses to ever sign a contract longer than 4 years or they are far apart on the money. I just wonder how long this goes before Jerry decides to call Dak's bluff.

Well it could be that dak never intended to sign any contract.
meaning he wants to play on the tag this year.
he would want to act like he wants to sign, but really doesnt. If jones knew he had no intention of signing they might get mad.

The reason being dak has a lot of confidence in himself, so he thinks if he plays great this year, he can get way bigger contract in 21.
Dak has said before he thinks he can be the best dallas qb ever, so that kinda says where his head is at lol. plus he hangs with elliot,
and elliot thinks he is the best ever already.

So dak isnt holding out for better deal , he is just working it so he plays on the tag.

OmerV · May 30, 2020

TheSkaven said:
Sorry to create another Dak thread, ladies and gentlemen, but I believe that this one will add value to the public discourse.

Can one of you math geniuses help me to understand the Dak Prescott / Todd France negotiation strategy? Because for me, the numbers are not adding up.

I tried to provide links to source everything mentioned below.

In the summer of 2019, the Cowboys offered Dak a deal in the $30 million per year range. Some outlets report that he was actually offered $33 million per year.

He rejected the deal and instead played out the final year of his rookie contract, in which he earned $2.025 million dollars. This is about $28 million in lost earnings for 2019, or $31 million if the Clarence Hill report is correct.

According to reports, there is a new offer in the table now. It’s a $175 million dollar deal which pays Dak $35 million per year.

Dak has rejected this offer as well. If no deal is done, he will play on the franchise tag which will pay him $31.4 million dollars, a difference of $3.6 million dollars.

Can someone please help me understand this negotiating strategy and why it makes financial sense? That’s not even mentioning the enormous risk Dak is taking that he could get injured.

Let’s assume first that the Cowboys cave in July and Dak gets $35 million per year over 4 years. That means he’ll earn $5 million more than he would have if he signed the deal offered in August 2019.

Over the lifetime of the contract, 4 years, he will make $20 million more than he would have if he signed the original offer. But he’s out $28 million, so he’s at a net loss of $8 million!! And this assumes he was offered $30 million per year, because if he turned down $33 million, it looks even worse!

I’m assuming that the two signing bonuses are about the same, since the way they’re talking about the contract value ($140M, $175M, etc) it all works out the same.

Please chime in because I must be missing something.

My only thought is that perhaps the two sides are further apart than we know and this isn’t just about length of contract. To get back the money he lost, I mean just to break even, he’s need a contract that averages $37 million per year and obviously break even isn’t good enough or he would have signed the first deal offered.

I think that Dak’s agent wants $40 million per year - this has actually been reported. If he gets $40 million or $42 million per year, yeah, his agent’s tactics do indeed make sense.

So, bonus question for those who day “sign Dak now”, are you still for signing him at $40 million per year?

Thiughts are appreciated!!

If he had signed a year ago it would have been a contract extension that would kick in after he played out his rookie contract, so he was going to play out his rookie contract either way, The one difference is he would have gotten some of the signing bonus last year.

Dak Prescott negotiations - how does the math add up?

dragon_mikal

Fire Garrett

gjkoeppen

Well-Known Member

Rayman70

Well-Known Member

J-man

Well-Known Member

Sandyf

Well-Known Member

BatteryPowered

Well-Known Member

DandyDon52

Well-Known Member

DandyDon52

Well-Known Member

OmerV

Well-Known Member