FO: NFL Drafting Efficiency

JD_KaPow

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Nice article looking at how well teams draft. They look at draft capital available at the draft and compare to value obtained in the draft. Dallas comes out as the 3rd-best-drafting team over the last 10 years (behind SEA and GB) and the last 5 years (behind KC and MIN). The numbers will change as recently-acquired players continue their careers, of course.

It doesn't account for draft picks traded for players: it's purely looking at how efficiently teams convert draft picks at the draft into talent. Or rather, performance: coaching can certainly be a big factor in converting talent into performance.

Of course, the conclusion is that the draft is mostly (but not entirely) a crap shoot, which implies that the best way to pick good players is to pick lots of players.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

"If you look at the top teams on this list, you see a lot of well-run organizations with a lot of stability: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England. It seems like Dallas has done a great job of drafting, but they haven't really had the success these other teams had. Maybe their coaching wasn't that good? We can also see how badly New England has drafted in the last three years. It doesn't look quite as bad as the raw numbers, but it's still very bad, easily the worst in that time. But over the last five years, they are right about at average, so maybe things aren't that bad?"
 

AmericanCowboy

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Nice article looking at how well teams draft. They look at draft capital available at the draft and compare to value obtained in the draft. Dallas comes out as the 3rd-best-drafting team over the last 10 years (behind SEA and GB) and the last 5 years (behind KC and MIN). The numbers will change as recently-acquired players continue their careers, of course.

It doesn't account for draft picks traded for players: it's purely looking at how efficiently teams convert draft picks at the draft into talent. Or rather, performance: coaching can certainly be a big factor in converting talent into performance.

Of course, the conclusion is that the draft is mostly (but not entirely) a crap shoot, which implies that the best way to pick good players is to pick lots of players.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

"If you look at the top teams on this list, you see a lot of well-run organizations with a lot of stability: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England. It seems like Dallas has done a great job of drafting, but they haven't really had the success these other teams had. Maybe their coaching wasn't that good? We can also see how badly New England has drafted in the last three years. It doesn't look quite as bad as the raw numbers, but it's still very bad, easily the worst in that time. But over the last five years, they are right about at average, so maybe things aren't that bad?"

yup. Garrett was and is a clown. And will always be a clown!
 

Hennessy_King

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Nice article looking at how well teams draft. They look at draft capital available at the draft and compare to value obtained in the draft. Dallas comes out as the 3rd-best-drafting team over the last 10 years (behind SEA and GB) and the last 5 years (behind KC and MIN). The numbers will change as recently-acquired players continue their careers, of course.

It doesn't account for draft picks traded for players: it's purely looking at how efficiently teams convert draft picks at the draft into talent. Or rather, performance: coaching can certainly be a big factor in converting talent into performance.

Of course, the conclusion is that the draft is mostly (but not entirely) a crap shoot, which implies that the best way to pick good players is to pick lots of players.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

"If you look at the top teams on this list, you see a lot of well-run organizations with a lot of stability: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England. It seems like Dallas has done a great job of drafting, but they haven't really had the success these other teams had. Maybe their coaching wasn't that good? We can also see how badly New England has drafted in the last three years. It doesn't look quite as bad as the raw numbers, but it's still very bad, easily the worst in that time. But over the last five years, they are right about at average, so maybe things aren't that bad?"
Terrible coaching and having a garrett in charge of pro personnel has led to terrible free agent acquisitions. That's the problem you have to draft and supplement with good free agents. We've only solved half of the puzzle
 

CowboyRoy

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Nice article looking at how well teams draft. They look at draft capital available at the draft and compare to value obtained in the draft. Dallas comes out as the 3rd-best-drafting team over the last 10 years (behind SEA and GB) and the last 5 years (behind KC and MIN). The numbers will change as recently-acquired players continue their careers, of course.

It doesn't account for draft picks traded for players: it's purely looking at how efficiently teams convert draft picks at the draft into talent. Or rather, performance: coaching can certainly be a big factor in converting talent into performance.

Of course, the conclusion is that the draft is mostly (but not entirely) a crap shoot, which implies that the best way to pick good players is to pick lots of players.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

"If you look at the top teams on this list, you see a lot of well-run organizations with a lot of stability: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England. It seems like Dallas has done a great job of drafting, but they haven't really had the success these other teams had. Maybe their coaching wasn't that good? We can also see how badly New England has drafted in the last three years. It doesn't look quite as bad as the raw numbers, but it's still very bad, easily the worst in that time. But over the last five years, they are right about at average, so maybe things aren't that bad?"

When you factor in how good Dallas has been at drafting of late, AND the added fact they have had a franchise QB the entire time the last 10 years, it REALLY underlines how bad the coaching was. As we all witnessed.

Here is the obvious. conclusion they came to as well.

It seems like Dallas has done a great job of drafting, but they haven't really had the success these other teams had. Maybe their coaching wasn't that good?
 

OmerV

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Terrible coaching and having a garrett in charge of pro personnel has led to terrible free agent acquisitions. That's the problem you have to draft and supplement with good free agents. We've only solved half of the puzzle
I'm not sure if the free agent acquisition issue is because there was a Garrett involved, or because the team hasn't committed the money to get better free agents. Maybe some of both.
 

plasticman

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A while back I did a performance based analysis of the draft. I assigned points to each pick based on game participation, starts, Pro Bowl and All Pro selections. It was a ten year evaluation from 2010 to 2019

I even did a round by round analysis.

I came up with similar results overall. KC, Seattle, Dallas, GB, and New Orleans were the best.

The Cowboys were ranked 4th overall.

They were ranked #1 in the 1st round, #19 in the 2nd (no surprise), #9 in the 3rd round, #13 in the 4th round and #32 in the 5th round.#8 in the 6th.

The Cowboys were #4 overall due to the strength of the 1st round which makes up around 60% of the points. That makes sense when you consider that 1st round pick would be the likeliest starter, Pro Bowler and so on.

I looked back at the history of our 5th round choices and, yep, it isn't good.
 

Hennessy_King

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I'm not sure if the free agent acquisition issue is because there was a Garrett involved, or because the team hasn't committed the money to get better free agents. Maybe some of both.
One of jasons brothers is head of pro personnel. So im going with that
 

JD_KaPow

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The Cowboys completely crushed the draft this year. Big time.
I believe that, but you never know. The reason people say (and think) we had a great draft is because we got players who were consensus-rated higher than where we picked them. One of the lessons of Seattle's drafts, especially several years ago, is that they took players who were NOT consensus-rated very high, but it turns out that Seattle was assessing them properly and the consensus was wrong. But I do trust Dallas's draft team in my gut, even though I know the draft is mostly a crap shoot.
 

DallasInDC

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That's definitely most of it but the FO's unwillingness to sign impact FA's, and overvalue their own players ("we like our guys"), has also been a contributing factor.

I would like to see thithis same type of analysis on FA value. We do not sign high profile FAs, but it seems like we get a lot of bang for our buck with the middle tier FAs. I agree with what others say, coaching has held this team back for the past decade.
 

KingintheNorth

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I would like to see thithis same type of analysis on FA value. We do not sign high profile FAs, but it seems like we get a lot of bang for our buck with the middle tier FAs. I agree with what others say, coaching has held this team back for the past decade.
We've tried a lot of outside-the-box ("clever") free agents and many have not panned out.
Mackenzy Bernadeau, Benson Mayowa, Nolan Carroll

This past off-season, we changed approaches some and signed some established veterans. Hopefully it helps.
HaHa Clinton-Dix, Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe
 

Hennessy_King

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I would like to see thithis same type of analysis on FA value. We do not sign high profile FAs, but it seems like we get a lot of bang for our buck with the middle tier FAs. I agree with what others say, coaching has held this team back for the past decade.
Can you name some of those free agents who worked out?
 

darthseinfeld

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The Cowboys completely crushed the draft this year. Big time.

Overall it's not a stretch to figure out what has been holding the Cowboys back the last few years.

I'm just thrilled that problem is solved!
Outside of a 50/50 split on Taco, the fanbase though we crushed 2017 as well. Wouldnt be surprising if that whole class is gone next year
 
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