What defensive statistic is the best measure of a defense

Hennessy_King · Jun 11, 2020

WillieBeamen said:
Points per drive

Points allowed isnt a good barometer considering we have been top-10 the last 4 seasons

So you're saying the offense has been carrying the defense?

Whyjerry · Jun 11, 2020

Hennessy_King said:
So you're saying the offense has been carrying the defense?

The recent Dallas Cowboys always have one unit broken. Offense played well and the defense stunk. Defense plays well and the offense can’t score. Special teams would croak with regularity. Something was always not working.

Aviano90 · Jun 11, 2020

JohnBoy said:
Points allowed, if you ask me.

Points allowed per possession for me.

darthseinfeld · Jun 11, 2020

WillieBeamen said:
Points per drive

Points allowed isnt a good barometer considering we have been top-10 the last 4 seasons

Dallas is an interesting examination into defensive stats. Statistically they have done well if you look at the raw data with the exception of TO's. However 2018 is the only recent year our defense has been able to wins as a unit. And even that unit caved

Direwolf63 · Jun 11, 2020

Points allowed per possession

Or

Points allowed per play. Takes away the problem of your offense turning the ball over and the opposition starting deep in your territory

Williamsboys · Jun 11, 2020

No Points Allowed.
Shutout..
Give them Nada..
NoThInG.
grRRRRRRR

J-man · Jun 11, 2020

It's best to have a total offense wrecking defense/game.

to/g
pts/g
sacks/g
yds/drive
3d stops/g
4d stops/g
return yds/g

Pantone282C · Jun 11, 2020

Excellent question. I see that Odds Shark web site agrees with most of you..
It says to me that these are the defensive rankings that matter the most in more than a dozen important categories when it comes to handicapping a game:

Fewest points per game
Yards per play
Fewest first downs allowed
Fewest passing yards per attempt

I gather that OddsShark puts the most emphasis on these two areas:
Fewest points per game - - "which is the ultimate defensive stat"
Yards per play - "A key handicapping indicator that indicates how many yards each NFL team gives up per play. The lower the number, the better the defense. Fewer yards per play equals fewer first downs and less time of possession for opponents."

kskboys · Jun 11, 2020

Whyjerry said:
In life there is a need to over complicate things. The question was the best stat. The best stat is always W and L. Always. We can data mine all you want but really it boils down to wins. That’s it. Ockham’s Razor is not an irrefutable law but it is tough to deny. Choose the simple answer - wins and losses. Have a great defense and you will win games you should not. The opposite holds as well.

W and L's do not evaluate the D. Pretty much not at all.

kskboys · Jun 11, 2020

Points are what matters. Yards allowed is a more accurate way to measure the D. I think many are getting this mixed up.

Typhus · Jun 11, 2020

JohnBoy said:
Points allowed, if you ask me.

That's sums it up.
This isn't rocket science,, a well rounded defense is hard to score against.

CelticPunk · Jun 11, 2020

It does come down to wins and losses. Team defense is a result of all three phases of the game - defense, offense, and special teams. Time of possession, takeaways, turnovers, field position... all phases of the game impact the ability of a team to stop their opponents from scoring. So, if I have to pick only one - it would come down to wins and losses.

cern · Jun 12, 2020

Turnovers.

Aviano90 · Jun 12, 2020

kskboys said:
W and L's do not evaluate the D. Pretty much not at all.

Yup. I remember in 2016 we kept saying the defense sucked even though we went 13-3 and they were ranked top 5. The defense relied on the opposing offense making unforced errors and our offense to keep them off the field with ball possession. Playoffs come around and our top 5 defense got exposed by a banged up GB offense that didn’t self destruct.

ghst187 · Jun 12, 2020

JohnBoy said:
Points allowed, if you ask me.

how can it be anything else? points ultimately become the final arbiter of winning or losing...

DanA · Jun 12, 2020

ghst187 said:
how can it be anything else? points ultimately become the final arbiter of winning or losing...

Because points can be conceded in other phases of the game.

Vegas_Cowboy · Jun 12, 2020

Turnovers.

fivetwos · Jun 12, 2020

The eye test tells it all. You know if a defense is any good, or if it's good enough to win with.

What does a good ranking mean if you didnt win, or a bad one if you did?

Garbage time skews too many numbers, even points allowed.

But yeah points allowed is a better indicator than yardage if it has to be something

glimmerman · Jun 12, 2020

Anything other than prevent. lol. Let’s attack the QB. Hurry the pass and stuff the middle.

Future · Jun 12, 2020

Red Dragon said:
I'd say the number of 3rd downs the opposing offense is forced into, and the rate of 3rd-down conversions.

The problem with points allowed is that some of those are the fault of one's own offense. If Dak throws an interception and it gets returned to the Cowboys 1-yard line, you can hardly blame the Dallas defense for allowing a touchdown on the possession that follows.

I like this too.

I like yards per, but for the same reason. You have to account for the offense or ST leaving hte defense in a bad position.

What defensive statistic is the best measure of a defense

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