10 year contract extension for Mahomes worth $500 million

jterrell

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Once the second tag is put up though Dak holds basically all the cards. He plays for 37m and is probably fine with that knowing you either extend him for a number he wants or pay him 50m for a 3rd year or he gets to leave and get 40+ million easily over 4 years.
Dallas has kicked this thing down the road long enough for sure but they won't let him walk for nothing but a 3rd round comp pick.
They would be obliged to tag him and try to trade him for a 1.
 

Adreme

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36.5M x5 for Dak
37M x5 for Watson
37.5M x5 for Lamar.

imho.

In a fair world sure, but the problem is Dak has more leverage than Mahomes had (and honestly more than both Watson and Lamar) because the Cowboys are almost out of time as it pertains to length they can hold onto him. The Chiefs had Mahomes easily for 4 years, same with the Texans, and the Ravens have Lamar for the next 5. Dallas has 2 years left which puts Dak is a stronger negotiating position. He can probably say 200m for 5 years if you want me to sign and with the leverage he has he could get it.
 

Adreme

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Dallas has kicked this thing down the road long enough for sure but they won't let him walk for nothing but a 3rd round comp pick.
They would be obliged to tag him and try to trade him for a 1.

Why would anyone pay a 1 though when they know Dallas cannot afford the 50m in cap space? Not to mention even to get a 1 you have to actually tag him and to do that you have to HAVE that 50 million in cap space set aside not being spent on anyone else. All that for a player you want to trade and you cannot trade him until he signs that tag, so he could basically block Dallas out of their entire Free Agency period by delaying a trade and then Dallas has cap space and a future 1, but no actual players for that year because the free agency period ended.
 

jterrell

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I mean Baltimore was always going to see Jackson get over 35m per. There was just no way that number would hold up (and it is not as though they are even allowed to negotiate an extension with him yet as it was only his 2nd year). I am pretty sure Watson was always going to beat whatever Wilson got as well.
Russ has a SB ring.
I think Watson will get about a mil more than Dak and has been along that path regardless of Pat's deal.
Dak started at 35 and now probably gains about 1.5M per year with this market reset.
I see similar gains for Watson and Lamar.
Presumably BAL extends LJ early like KC did.
Lock in those cheaper seasons as part of mega-extension and a means to make deal more cap friendly.
I.E. what Dallas was too stupid to do.

Watson and LJ would be smart to push the GTD money up but fall in line on AAV(which is largely nonsense anyway).
 

Adreme

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Russ has a SB ring.
I think Watson will get about a mil more than Dak and has been along that path regardless of Pat's deal.
Dak started at 35 and now probably gains about 1.5M per year with this market reset.
I see similar gains for Watson and Lamar.
Presumably BAL extends LJ early like KC did.
Lock in those cheaper seasons as part of mega-extension and a means to make deal more cap friendly.
I.E. what Dallas was too stupid to do.

Watson and LJ would be smart to push the GTD money up but fall in line on AAV(which is largely nonsense anyway).

The AAV for QBs comes into play because Mahomes will play out that entire contract barring something drastic happening. You are not cutting Mahomes.

Dak is not signing for 36. He gets 36 playing on the tag the next 2 years and then is taking a discount for the final 2 years. If you want him to sign the deal it has to be for more than what he stands to gain doing nothing the next 2 years. It is probably going to take 5 years 200 or 4 years 155 to get him to sign because that is now the market or to rephrase it is the market if he pushes to max out his value.
 

Adreme

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At this point wait until Watson signs. That' probably their best bet.

I would like that plan if it did not entail relying on the Texans who just paid the 2nd or 3rd best Tackle in his own draft class 20% more than the highest OL contract in the NFL. Forget being the best T, because Tunsil isnt, Tunsil is far from the best T in his class and he got that insane deal. What that means for Watson is that he is also going to get drastically overpaid.
 

jterrell

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Why would anyone pay a 1 though when they know Dallas cannot afford the 50m in cap space? Not to mention even to get a 1 you have to actually tag him and to do that you have to HAVE that 50 million in cap space set aside not being spent on anyone else. All that for a player you want to trade and you cannot trade him until he signs that tag, so he could basically block Dallas out of their entire Free Agency period by delaying a trade and then Dallas has cap space and a future 1, but no actual players for that year because the free agency period ended.
Right now Dallas has 11.2 M in cap space plus count Dak at 31.4M.
50M isn't crazy money provided they don't eat it all year.

The team has been conservative with the cap but could slip a lot of money into future seasons to fit 50M under the cap. (Zeke, DLaw, Tyron)
And when they do move the money they'll just carry a large lump sum over anyways to defray future costs.

A team would do the deal to make sure they won the Dak sweepstakes and got the deal they agreed to actually signed.
A team like Chicago that feels they are a QB away from regular playoff contention would be smart o kick tires on that type deal.
Teams have paid a 1 and 3 for far lesser QBs.
 

Valkyr

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Great, anyone down with giving Dak the same deal?

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