CowboyoWales
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First off there are differences in the projected cap amounts, usually are higher than the actual cap amount from year to year when there isn't the issues they have this season.
Second the reason the cap isn't figured until march is the cap each year is figured on 100% of the sale of NFL merchandise for the previous league year that ends the first week of march. The cap is figured on that merchandise sales, the previous live gate sales the the amount they will receive for that coming year from TV contracts. I'm not sure where you got this 48% they figure the cap amount on from.
Third the Cowboys will not be able to carry over the entire 11.25 mil because teams are allowed to only carry over 5% of that years cap to the next year. If they have more than the 5% max by the end of the last week of the season that money over 5% is claimed by the league and then divided among the teams that didn't go over the 5% rule. That part I'm not sure when it is distributed.
Next when the cap first started the Cowboys were forced to restructure contracts that started a long cycle of restructuring contracts adding money onto the end that turned into dead money on the cap. they went through this cycle until about 4 years ago when they stopped doing that and they finally got to where they had little dead cap money and were able to use the vast majority of their cap signing players.. I seriously doubt that the Cowboys will fall back into restructuring contracts that end up adding money to the dead cap money and start that cycle all over again. Also today's contracts have more guaranteed money than those when the cap first started making it even less likely they will restructure contracts now.
Now I'm sure there are those that know more about the cap than me but this is what I have learned over the years.
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A strange post from someone who previously dismissed any concerns with ....we've never had problems with money nor the Cap before.
So reading all of that generic waffle (WELL-KNOWN MEMBER) you've given above:
1) We probably wont have the $11m to carry over to 2021
2) Despite me quoting an increase of $17m in projected CAP Space for 2021.....the actual amount will be quite alot less as NFL income will reduce dramatically this year.
= We can make an educated guess on the available CAP for 2021.