McCarthy is a fraud

One game, new everything, they lose for 3 points. It's not time to throw the baby out with the bath water, I just want him as the offensive coordinator. That's my only gripe.

Future said:

In obvious situations, sure. But those types of plays where there's really a discussion to be had are pretty rare.

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That’s why I wonder what the analytics said in this case about what happens to the win percentage if we failed. I can get behind an analytical call and looking at it just from an if successful standpoint it makes sense. Maybe ESPN has it tracked?

Aviano90 said:

That’s why I wonder what the analytics said in this case about what happens to the win percentage if we failed. I can get behind an analytical call and looking at it just from an if successful standpoint it makes sense. Maybe ESPN has it tracked?

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I posted it above - failing on 4th down made the win probability shrink to 34%.

Plankton said:

I posted it above - failing on 4th down made the win probability shrink to 34%.

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ESPN has it tracked per play.

1st and 10 at 18 yard line we were 56.5% win probability.
2nd - can’t get it to stop on the 2nd down play.
3rd and 6th from 14 = 35.4%
4th and 3 from 11 = 35.7%

Rams first down following stop = 33.8% win probability.

Once we got to 3rd down there wasn’t much of a decline from failing to convert on 4th down.

Not as much risk as I was expecting.

Plankton said:

I posted it above - failing on 4th down made the win probability shrink to 34%.

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Kicking the field goal: 45% chance
Making the 4th down: 56%
Missing the 4th down: 34%

Risking 22% to win 11% of expected value. The conversion rate is somewhere around 55%.

55% x 11% = 6.05
45% x 22% = 9.9

Looks like it's a losing gamble. You'd have to factor in the field goal success percentage there, but it doesn't even seem that close.

Mike McCarthy just met his players in person the first of August. Why are yall this dumb?

tm1119 said:

Shocking to me that fans are really going to try and pretend like Kellen Moore wasn’t forced on a McCarthy by Jerry. Just like Garrett was forced on Wade Phillips. Jerry has picked his new golden boy, don’t expect Moore to be going anywhere or lose any roles anytime soon

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Garrett was forced on Wade, but I don't think that is how it happened with McCarthy. All signs point to Jerry letting him have his way, and McCarthy had nowhere to go but down if he took over for Moore. How could he justify displacing the coordinator for the most productive offense in the NFL? Imagine if he did that and then ranked, say 10th in scoring. The players would lose faith and the fans would have his head.

CyberB0b said:

Kicking the field goal: 45% chance
Making the 4th down: 56%
Missing the 4th down: 34%

Risking 22% to win 11% of expected value. The conversion rate is somewhere around 55%.

55% x 11% = 6.05
45% x 22% = 9.9

Looks like it's a losing gamble. You'd have to factor in the field goal success percentage there, but it doesn't even seem that close.

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Good stuff. Where do you get your %s from?

CyberB0b said:

It all started off with this, from the Cowboys press conference, when they hired Mike McCarthy:



It is clear that McCarthy hyped himself up as a "changed man" and an analytics guru, when his past tells us otherwise. He tells us he watched a ton of game film, then admitted he doesn't. Aaron Rodgers seems to think he's got a low football IQ.



The one thing McCarthy is good at is designing and calling offensive plays. What does he do when he gets here? He keeps the old offense and Kellen Moore. What happened on Sunday? It looked like the same old, same old.

I can't point to a single thing that happened on Sunday that I think Mike McCarthy improved. That's a huge problem, IMO. It looks pretty clear that McCarthy didn't want to put in the work of being the playcaller and just came here for one last cash grab. Jerry bought it, hook line and sinker.

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I told everyone this team needed an Urban Renewal Plan...

phildadon86 said:

One game in and hes a "fraud"

I will not listen to anything Aaron Rodgers says. Guy is a grade A ******

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you should. Guy may be a jerk to some fans but he is the smartest guy on the field. And still one of the top five Qbs in the game and one of the top that has ever played the game.

CyberB0b said:

Kicking the field goal: 45% chance
Making the 4th down: 56%
Missing the 4th down: 34%

Risking 22% to win 11% of expected value. The conversion rate is somewhere around 55%.

55% x 11% = 6.05
45% x 22% = 9.9

Looks like it's a losing gamble. You'd have to factor in the field goal success percentage there, but it doesn't even seem that close.

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Sorry but I take the tie there. Our Defense tightened up some in the 2nd half. That’s just me though.

Aviano90 said:

Good stuff. Where do you get your %s from?

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Some were provided in the thread, some I googled. I don't have time, but you'd need to factor in the percentage to make the field goal. Probably 90%, which makes it closer, but still better to take the field goal.

CyberB0b said:

It all started off with this, from the Cowboys press conference, when they hired Mike McCarthy:



It is clear that McCarthy hyped himself up as a "changed man" and an analytics guru, when his past tells us otherwise. He tells us he watched a ton of game film, then admitted he doesn't. Aaron Rodgers seems to think he's got a low football IQ.



The one thing McCarthy is good at is designing and calling offensive plays. What does he do when he gets here? He keeps the old offense and Kellen Moore. What happened on Sunday? It looked like the same old, same old.

I can't point to a single thing that happened on Sunday that I think Mike McCarthy improved. That's a huge problem, IMO. It looks pretty clear that McCarthy didn't want to put in the work of being the playcaller and just came here for one last cash grab. Jerry bought it, hook line and sinker.

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Yeah, like we will take your opinion over Troy Aikman's! He said McCarthy was the best move the Cowboys could have made to coach this team.

BrAinPaiNt said:

One game...ONE GAME...ONE GAME....ONE GAME!

People have already lost their ever loving minds.

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I think you’re missing the point. It has nothing to do with losing one game. It has everything to do with HOW they lost the game. The whole storyline since Garrett was fired was that Jerry and Stephen finally saw the need for change. They changed the head coach and every assistant coach except two. The players were quoted saying how creative and dynamic things were going to be this year. Then they draft Lamb and everybody loses their mind because of all the offensive firepower we have. And then ? They start the game on the first play with the same stupid pre-snap penalties we’ve seen since Jimmy left. Then on offense we see the same offense that Garrett ran: running on first down almost all the time, dinking and dunking passing, same stupid tired passing routes, and then the new head coach makes a dumb decision that results in no points just to prove he’s not Garrett. Oh, and the defense was completely unprepared for the Rams At the start of the game. We’re lucky the D caught up but how could they be that unprepared? And the OPI call at the end sucked but we lost the game way before then by being in that position. We score 3 points in the second half ? And they only have an drafted free agent to take on maybe the best defensive lineman in football ? With all the changes since last year we end up with the same conservative, predictable offense. The defense was unprepared and was run through like a turnstile against a mid level team. The oline is in trouble with little depth. The linebackers are in trouble with known injury prone Lee and LVE out and an overpaid 54 running around avoiding contact. Same clown show we’ve seen for years. Those are the things that make you lose your mind after one game.

Future said:

The 4th down call is an analytics call.

The Cowboys had a 46% chance of victory entering fourth down at the Rams’ 11-yard line with about 12 minutes remaining in regulation, he said. If they converted the fourth down, their win probability would’ve increased to 56%. If they kicked a field goal, it actually would have decreased to 45%.
https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/20...wn-gamble-week-1-mike-mccarthy-jason-garrett/

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They failed and their win % ended up as zero.

BrAinPaiNt said:

One game...ONE GAME...ONE GAME....ONE GAME!

People have already lost their ever loving minds.

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This is how the board has acted after losses, whether it was Campo, Parcells, Wade or JG. I guess we can Mike to the list.

One game and he is a fraud. I think he should have kicked the FG but I will give him half a season to see some of his changes being slowly implemented.

CyberB0b said:

It all started off with this, from the Cowboys press conference, when they hired Mike McCarthy:



It is clear that McCarthy hyped himself up as a "changed man" and an analytics guru, when his past tells us otherwise. He tells us he watched a ton of game film, then admitted he doesn't. Aaron Rodgers seems to think he's got a low football IQ.



The one thing McCarthy is good at is designing and calling offensive plays. What does he do when he gets here? He keeps the old offense and Kellen Moore. What happened on Sunday? It looked like the same old, same old.

I can't point to a single thing that happened on Sunday that I think Mike McCarthy improved. That's a huge problem, IMO. It looks pretty clear that McCarthy didn't want to put in the work of being the playcaller and just came here for one last cash grab. Jerry bought it, hook line and sinker.

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MM was criticized for not running a modern offense. He was said to be a low IQ coach and did not have ability to creatively adjust to the best defenses.

This would not have been a problem if Urban Meyer or Lincoln Riley were hired instead.

MM is just another walk around coach without the intelligence or talent to identify/maximize talent like a Jimmy Johnson.

Future said:

The 4th down call is an analytics call.

The Cowboys had a 46% chance of victory entering fourth down at the Rams’ 11-yard line with about 12 minutes remaining in regulation, he said. If they converted the fourth down, their win probability would’ve increased to 56%. If they kicked a field goal, it actually would have decreased to 45%.
https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/20...wn-gamble-week-1-mike-mccarthy-jason-garrett/

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Interesting.

What was the % of completing the 4th down?

eromeopolk said:

I told everyone this team needed an Urban Renewal Plan...

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Might be a ****** as a person, but this guy is a genuine football genius.

Wins everywhere he goes, develops/maximizes talent and does not have to lie about his football knowledge to get a job.