Teachable Moment: That's why you go for two early

Proof

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droopdog7 said:
Well, I actually started this topic first. But apparently it was too nuanced for people to understand. I see the continues here.

And yes, explaining what people are actually saying to them, while tedious, is actually kinda important.
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gotcha. Didn’t see you start anything. Read the OP and responded to it. Normally I’d love to twist you up into a pretzel, but not today. It’s not due to your nuanced take being too difficult to grasp, it’s understanding what you’re saying implicitly and fully disagreeing.

I will concede though because we won the game with this approach, and arguing against reality against theory is not worth it. Plus I’m happy.

until next time sir.
 
jaythecowboy

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Established1971 said:
absolutely, utterly wrong and the hindsight of the success of the onside kick (something that is successful about 5% of the time) does not make you right.

Here is the REAL logic:

You are down 15 with under 5 minutes to play
you score and are now down by 9 with the chance to go down by 8
if you get the extra point (very high probability) you are now down by 8.
Being down by 8 is "within one score" (touchdown, with 2 pt conversion) or "one drive"
You miss the 2 point and you are down by 9, so you need two scores or two drives.
If you are down by 8 every player on the Cowboys is thinking that, and every player is now juiced, motivated, psyched (whatever word you prefer) to get that one score that you need.
But being down by 9 and you have all these players thinking, damn we need two drives and I dont see how there is time.
All you need is one player to lose a bit of focus on one play and miss a block or tackle. Just one.

Its psychology and it is simple. 4 1/2 minutes is still enough time that you are not yet forced to think of the onside play yet.
Take the point that keeps you within "one score" or "one drive"
Then you go stop them, get the ball back, and you have time to tie the game, no need to rely on the onside kick.

we got lucky. That is now two weeks with a bad special teams decision and we are 1-1 as we should be when you do these things
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It's not hindsight. I said it in the game chat as it happened.
 
SteveTheCowboy

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Proof said:
gotcha. Didn’t see you start anything. Read the OP and responded to it. Normally I’d love to twist you up into a pretzel, but not today. It’s not due to your nuanced take being too difficult to grasp, it’s understanding what you’re saying implicitly and fully disagreeing.

I will concede though because we won the game with this approach, and arguing against reality against theory is not worth it. Plus I’m happy.

until next time sir.
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Now here is a discerning gentleman that picks the right battles.
 
droopdog7

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Proof said:
gotcha. Didn’t see you start anything. Read the OP and responded to it. Normally I’d love to twist you up into a pretzel, but not today. It’s not due to your nuanced take being too difficult to grasp, it’s understanding what you’re saying implicitly and fully disagreeing.

I will concede though because we won the game with this approach, and arguing against reality against theory is not worth it. Plus I’m happy.

until next time sir.
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How about this? What he hell am I doing anyway?!? We won the friggin’ game. Go cowboys!
 
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jaythecowboy

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blueblood70 said:
im saying early in the game they tried a 2 and failed and it cost them the game
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I'm not sure that's true because if the Falcons kicked the extra point, then the Cowboys would also have kicked the extra point and everything else basically plays out the same.
 
Runwildboys

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Proof said:
I understand the point being made, but it’s flimsy at best.

stat heads have screamed to go for two on the first score when it doesn’t change the possible outcomes. Not when missing means you’re guaranteed to be down two scores.

a team is far more likely to fold after since their odds of winning or tying just went down dramatically than they are to rise up now that they “know what they need to do to win”
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If the stats say otherwise, why would you say a team is far more likely to fold? I think that's basically calling the stats a liar. ;)
 
jaythecowboy

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aikemirv said:
Not really, if you kick the extra point you are down by a TD and a two point conversion. The way we did it, you are down by a TD and a onside kick and then a drive after the onside kick assuming you have enough time left for that.

A 2 point conversion in that situation has probably 60% chance (2018 rate). The other scenario (down by 9) has less than a 6% probability. Granted the 2 pt conversion just gets you to overtime but the other scenario has a 95% chance for a loss
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You aren't arguing 60% chance vs 6% chance though. You are arguing 6% vs 0%. The 2 point conversion failed.
 

Proof

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Runwildboys said:
If the stats say otherwise, why would you say a team is far more likely to fold? I think that's basically calling the stats a liar. ;)
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think I worded poorly. I’ve never heard the advanced stat folks say to go for it in that position.
 
aikemirv

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jaythecowboy said:
You aren't arguing 60% chance vs 6% chance though. You are arguing 6% vs 0%. The 2 point conversion failed.
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No I am arguing 60% at the end of the game versus 6% being down by 9.

All other things being equal being down by 8 or 9.

I also think, as a staff you would have been more creative on a 2 pt conversion to tie at the end versus the play they called with 4 min left.
 
JD_KaPow

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aikemirv said:
Not really, if you kick the extra point you are down by a TD and a two point conversion. The way we did it, you are down by a TD and a onside kick and then a drive after the onside kick assuming you have enough time left for that.

A 2 point conversion in that situation has probably 60% chance (2018 rate). The other scenario (down by 9) has less than a 6% probability. Granted the 2 pt conversion just gets you to overtime but the other scenario has a 95% chance for a loss
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If we assume the following:
XP is 100% (just to keep things simple)
2-pointer is 60%.
You get the second TD (if you don't, none of this matters).

Go for it early:
60% chance you tie.
40% chance you need the onside kick.

Kick early and go for it late:
60% chance you tie.
40% chance you lose.

I don't understand why anyone prefers the second scenario.
 
aikemirv

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JD_KaPow said:
Your numbers don't resemble our earth numbers.

If we assume the following:
XP is 100% (just to keep things simple)
2-pointer is 60%.
You get the second TD (if you don't, none of this matters).

Go for it early:
60% chance you tie.
40% chance you need the onside kick.

Kick early and go for it late:
60% chance you tie.
40% chance you lose.

I don't understand why anyone prefers the second scenario.
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Because once you missed the first one you basically had a 95% chance to lose.

I want to take it to the end and just have the 60% chance to tie.
 
JD_KaPow

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aikemirv said:
Because once you missed the first one you basically had a 95% chance to lose.

I want to take it to the end and just have the 60% chance to tie.
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But if you're going to assume you miss the 2-pointer, you have to assume it for both cases. You're making the decision before you know the outcome of the first 2-pointer.
 

Proof

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Alweezy said:
I feel like the only statistics that matter in my judgement of this situation is:

What would Garrett do?

And Jason Garrett would have undoubtedly gone for 1 point there, to extend the game, because it is the smart thing to do, and somehow we'd lose this game.

So anything that is the opposite of Jason Garrett style coaching right now, is change. And change may not always be good, or strategically sound, or even mathematically reasonable...but I'm going to roll with it as long as there is a coaching reason behind the moves. I just want the play calling in those situations to be better and actually give us a chance to execute the conversions. We might can get that cleaned up.
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This is my favorite post in a long time lol
 
aikemirv

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JD_KaPow said:
But if you're going to assume you miss the 2-pointer, you have to assume it for both cases. You're making the decision before you know the outcome of the first 2-pointer.
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LIke I said also, I think you get more creative on the 2 pt in a last chance scenario.

So I did not like the decision or the play called and I would not assume that same play call at the end.
 
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