MM explains his thought process of going for 2

pansophy

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I’m consistently amazed at how many people in this world despise and ignore objective reality.

This isn’t a matter of opinion, it’s statistical fact. There is nothing to debate and anyone arguing that it was the wrong decision, mathematically speaking, is objectively wrong.
You shouldn’t need that. The approach is painfully obvious. I’m not suggesting that it was the reason we won the game. That of course would be foolish. But understanding why it makes more sense to go for the two early rather than later is super obvious.

If you knew you were going to need three scores, would you want to know that after the first or second TD? Obviously, and without question, you would want to know after the first TD. When that happened, your path to victory was 1000% clear. Get a stop (which you would need either way), score as quickly as humanly possible to give yourself as much time as possible, get the onside kick, and get a TD or FG.

If you wait, you still need a stop and a score, but you don’t know whether you need the onside kick. So are you scoring as fast as possible or in the back of your mind are you also trying to run clock in case you make the two to leave less time for atl? If you run clock, you have less time to get the third score and you possibly sabatoge the odds of scoring yourself.

Okay, do let’s say you score the second TD with probably less time on the clock. Now you miss the conversion. That’s fair right, your scenario can’t have a made 2-point conversion? Otherwise, you aren’t arguing about when to go for two. You’re arguing that making the two is better, which of course we all know.

So tell me again how waiting for the conversion on the second TD is better? You still need the onside kick but this time you might have less time. I certainly don’t see any logical reason for why you would have more time.
Not to mention, how many football analysts know anything about probability theory. People were excited about having more analytics impact play calling. This was the first big example.

There is a psychological bias to put off the big play until later, but the probabilities of winning are better if you generate certainty with more time on clock.
 

CanadianCowboysFan

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Not to mention, how many football analysts know anything about probability theory. People were excited about having more analytics impact play calling. This was the first big example.

There is a psychological bias to put off the big play until later, but the probabilities of winning are better if you generate certainty with more time on clock.

sure but how then did ESPN have our percentage of winning at .1% after we missed.
 

TWOK11

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I keep forgetting you are Tom Landry Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick rolled into one and that they consult (ed) you on strategy

Its not a matter of coaching genius, this is simple statistical theory. It’s a basic intro level STATS probability problem.

MM is right because what he said is demonstrable fact.
 

droopdog7

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I keep forgetting you are Tom Landry Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick rolled into one and that they consult (ed) you on strategy
I have explained it a thousand different ways already. You don’t need to be a coaching genius. Just need to have ninth grade critical thinking skills.
 

pansophy

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sure but how then did ESPN have our percentage of winning at .1% after we missed.
Because we needed 2 scores instead of 1. Of course if we score later and go for 2 and miss, people will argue the percentage will be better. But that is because we already scored the second TD (more certainty) and so the chances of winning would look better. The probability of winning goes up and down after every play. If we kick the ball off and we recover an Atlanta fumble, that probability of .1% jumps up to a far more reasonable level immediately.

We needed several big plays to win a game with a .1% chance of winning, at any stage, but obviously we got them. The game became a toss up when we got the onside kick.
 

streetcredit

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Its not a matter of coaching genius, this is simple statistical theory. It’s a basic intro level STATS probability problem.

MM is right because what he said is demonstrable fact.

what's the statistical theory?
 

Diehardblues

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You shouldn’t need that. The approach is painfully obvious. I’m not suggesting that it was the reason we won the game. That of course would be foolish. But understanding why it makes more sense to go for the two early rather than later is crystal clear.

If you knew you were going to need three scores, would you want to know that after the first or second TD? Obviously, and without question, you would want to know after the first TD. When that happened, your path to victory was 1000% clear. Get a stop (which you would need either way), score as quickly as humanly possible to give yourself as much time as possible, get the onside kick, and get a TD or FG.

If you wait, you still need a stop and a score, but you don’t know whether you need the onside kick. So are you scoring as fast as possible or in the back of your mind are you also trying to run clock in case you make the two to leave less time for atl? If you run clock, you have less time to get the third score and you possibly sabatoge the odds of scoring the second TD.

Okay, so let’s say you score the second TD with probably less time on the clock. Now you miss the conversion. That’s fair right, your scenario can’t have a made 2-point conversion? Otherwise, you aren’t arguing about when to go for two. You’re arguing that making the two is better, which of course we all know.

So tell me again how waiting for the conversion on the second TD is better? You still need the onside kick but this time you might have less time. I certainly don’t see any logical reason for why you would have more time.
It’s better cause then you only need one possession for an opportunity to extend the game.

If you miss the 2 point conversion to tie the game you can still onside kick.
 

Diehardblues

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what's the statistical theory?
It’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard. You always play to reduce it to lesser possessions.

I think the only other time I’ve seen that is when the kicker was out.

McCarthy is bringing new meaning to Big D. Dumb
 

Diehardblues

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Let’s assume we make the 2 point conversion. Does Riverboat Mike go for 2 again to win the game instead of the tie? Maybe that’s what he’s thinking. Lol
 

JoeKing

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Kudos to one poster here ( not sure who ) for nailing this 100%


This is the BS McCarthy told Jerry in his office Mondy morning. Now I'm interested in Jerry's response. The Cowboys lucked into this win because the Falcon's did not know a rule on special teams and John Fassel's guys did. That's good coaching by Fassel, not McCarthy. McCarthy gets another failing grade this week despite the lucky win.
 

Trajan

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Why not make it a 1 possession game?

What happens if you fail to make the last 2 point conversion ? You kick the onside with less time, if any time is left, then you had earlier. It is better to kick an onside, recover and move into scoring range with 4 min then :10 seconds.

I’m not sure why this is difficult to understand.
 

droopdog7

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Why not make it a 1 possession game?
Because in theory it isn’t a one possession game. It’s never a one possession game.

If you’re arguing that it’s better to go for two on the second TD, then everything else HAS to stay constant. What that means is if I missed the conversion on the first TD, then you also have to miss it after the second TD. Get it?!?

So in both cases, you need three scores to win. But in your case you don’t find that out until after the second TD whereas I find out after the first one. In others words, I have more time to plan for the three scores than you do.
 

TWOK11

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Why not make it a 1 possession game?

8 points is only a one possession game if you assume multiple future statistical variables fall a certain way, the totality of which render a far less than 50% probability of it actually being a one score game.

In other words, 8 points being strictly a one possession game is a psychological illusion. It’s best to think of it as a 1.5 possession game, which is not fundamentally altered by when you go for two. By going for two after the first score however, you are controlling for an important variable earlier in the scenario and allowing yourself to plan accordingly going forward. Your are statistically more likely to win by controlling for the most variables as early as possible.

Another way to think of it: Would you rather be down 9 with four minutes left, or down two with 4 seconds left?
 
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