Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

TWOK11 · Sep 22, 2020

conner01 said:
Football is not math
I get the mathematics but to me the smart move is make it a one procession game
I get those that follow simply the math but for that to work you had to convert one of the lowest percentage plays in the game
We did but the odds of a known onside kick working are mighty slim

Sports are most definitely all about math. The entire point of the game, at the most fundamental level, is math.

My god some of you are dense

Trajan · Sep 22, 2020

visionary said:
buddy you are looking at this the wrong way

once you get to an onside kick your chances are bad either way so the objective is to not get an onside kick. Anyway, it is clear we can’t convince each other so, to each their own

If there is a choice not to kick the onside this is correct. However, the other team has a say in this and it isn't a decision that the Cowboys get to make. If you don't make the final 2 pt conversion, you get no choice, you are now down 2 pts and will have to kick the onside, which I agree isn't a high probability play, but what is the other option other then lose the game?

Pushing the decision off to the last few seconds just limits the chance of success.

pansophy · Sep 22, 2020

OmerV said:
Going for it on the first one may have been the better choice (or not), but explain the mathematics you are talking about. Is there some mathematical explanation for why a 2 point conversion would have a greater chance of success the first time than the second?

This isn't the exact scenario we were in, but it is just a probability problem.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/27969581

cern · Sep 22, 2020

TWOK11 said:
Sports are most definitely all about math. The entire point of the game, at the most fundamental level, is math.

My god some of you are dense

for pitchers in baseball, it's about physics. fastballs, curves (hooks) sliders, etc. are all about the spin you can put on the ball.

cern · Sep 22, 2020

does it really matter? the math says 40 is greater than 39.

pansophy · Sep 22, 2020

Trajan said:
If there is a choice not to kick the onside this is correct. However, the other team has a say in this and it isn't a decision that the Cowboys get to make. If you don't make the final 2 pt conversion, you get no choice, you are now down 2 pts and will have to kick the onside, which I agree isn't a high probability play, but what is the other option other then lose the game?

Pushing the decision off to the last few seconds just limits the chance of success.

Exactly. The illusion of "making it a one possession game" is the assumption that we make the 2pt conversion next time. Otherwise it is still a 2 possession game. So really if we go for the extra point we don't know if we are in a 1 possession or 2 possession game.

TWOK11 · Sep 22, 2020

cern said:
does it really matter? the math says 40 is greater than 39.

It matters because people are using a fundamentally false argument to attack the coach’s decision making.

Uncle_Hank · Sep 22, 2020

"But these go to 11"

visionary · Sep 22, 2020

TWOK11 said:
Just so everyone else knows, this is complete nonsense that should be ignored entirely.

Again, this is not a matter of opinion. It’s statistical fact.

you keep saying this

1. please show us your statistics that say this

2. clarify how you accounted for the way the opposing team will react/play differently under both scenarios

you are conveniently ignoring these issue and keep giving us your opinion

conner01 · Sep 22, 2020

TWOK11 said:
Sports are most definitely all about math. The entire point of the game, at the most fundamental level, is math.

My god some of you are dense

I see it more about human behavior than math
An example being a jet sweep
For it to work you need the the defense to react in a way that clears the edge
Blocking is a lot about math. If I have 3 blocking 2 the odds are better
But you run routes many times to force a reaction by the defense so it depends on a predicted reaction. If you don’t get that reaction it don’t work

jaythecowboy · Sep 22, 2020

endersdragon said:
First, and this game is exactly why... If we had tried after the 2nd we wouldn't be in such a rush to score the 2nd (might event be milking clock to prevent a repeat of the end of the first half), and thus we don't leave ourselves enough time to kick the FG if we fail.

That is exactly what happened vs the Jets last year.

pansophy · Sep 22, 2020

visionary said:
you keep saying this

1. please show us your statistics that say this

2. clarify how you accounted for the way the opposing team will react/play differently under both scenarios

you are conveniently ignoring these issue and keep giving us your opinion

If you want to learn probability go read. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27969581

More importantly is how did WE react? We knew we had to score a TD quickly and leave enough time on the clock to score again. So we hurried. Do we know what we should do if we hold off making that decision? Do we try to leave as little time on the clock as possible to rely on making the two point conversion to tie? Or do we hurry, and ideally tie the game? If we tie the game with time left, we kick off and try to keep Atlanta from getting into FG position themselves.

pansophy · Sep 22, 2020

jaythecowboy said:
That is exactly what happened vs the Jets last year.

I actually just looked at that game. It wasn't really the same scenario. The previous TD put us within one score already. We just weren't able to keep the Jets from getting a FG, so we had to go for 2 near the end of the game. We obviously missed the 2pt conversion and the ensuing onside kick.

Playmaker247 · Sep 22, 2020

If anyone disagrees with the call I ask you to just please read this article and have a open mind about it. I promise it makes total sense.

jaythecowboy · Sep 22, 2020

Doomsday101 said:
I get that but again I can only say I would take the more sure points, it is not the 1st time analytics have backfired on a team

No strategy is 100% effective. The goal is to use the best strategy possible.

JoeKing · Sep 22, 2020

The Cowboys were falling too far behind when they scored their first TD. Maximum points whenever possible had to be the plan at that point.

Doomsday101 · Sep 22, 2020

jaythecowboy said:
No strategy is 100% effective. The goal is to use the best strategy possible.

That is true, only around 50% of 2 point conversions are made compared to 95% extra point kicks. Odds say you got 45% better chance of getting the extra point

JD_KaPow · Sep 22, 2020

jaythecowboy said:
That is exactly what happened vs the Jets last year.

No it isn't. The Cowboys were down 12 when they scored the first TD. Kicking the XP is a no-brainer there: it makes a 6 point game into a 5 point game. No benefit to a 2-pointer: a 4- and 5-point deficit are identical, but a 6-point deficit is worse (in the case of a missed XP). The problem there was that the Jets got a FG to take the lead back to 8. The Cowboys had no choice at that point but to try the 2-pointer at the end.

jaythecowboy · Sep 22, 2020

pansophy said:
I actually just looked at that game. It wasn't really the same scenario. The previous TD put us within one score already. We just weren't able to keep the Jets from getting a FG, so we had to go for 2 near the end of the game. We obviously missed the 2pt conversion and the ensuing onside kick.

Oh ok. I just looked at the game. Not really applicable in the sense that the team didn't have a choice to go for 2, but it does demonstrate what happens when you have a lack of information. Dallas had the ball with 3:21 and all three timeouts at the 25 yard line. They ended up scoring the td with ~40 seconds left and two timeouts. Had they known the 2 point conversion would fail, they could have conserved that third timeout or left more time on the clock to get the ball back. They might not have even needed an onside kick to get another possession.

jaythecowboy · Sep 22, 2020

Doomsday101 said:
That is true, only around 50% of 2 point conversions are made compared to 95% extra point kicks. Odds say you got 45% better chance of getting the extra point

You need a 2 point conversion regardless so the percentages are the same. The only difference is going early and missing gave you the chance of the onside kick (people are saying 6% conversion rate). If you go for the conversion late and miss you have 0% chance to win because the clock will be run down. You aren't looking for the optimal strategy to get a point. It is the optimal strategy to win the game.

Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

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