Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

Maxmadden · Sep 22, 2020

It seemed to me Atlanta started playing ultra conservatively and played not to lose knowing they were up 2 scores. We played balls to the walls knowing we needed everything we could get.

Don't know if that will be a rule that we can put in the math books but it appeared that way on Sunday. I'm sure different teams will respond differently. I really don't know.

MarcusRock · Sep 22, 2020

TWOK11 said:
It matters because people are using a fundamentally false argument to attack the coach’s decision making.

People do the same thing to attack an official's penalty call. No one wants to see video that they were right all along 'round these parts either. Lol.

visionary · Sep 22, 2020

Uncle_Hank said:
The behavior of the opponent is a separate issue. At this point I don't think there's any evidence to suggest that Atlanta would have played any differently whether we had kicked the extra point or went for 2, but it's still fun to think about.

Remember the Dallas-Denver game with Romo and Manning, where Denver let us score in the fourth quarter so that they'd have enough time left for a game winning drive? They knew it was better to be down by 4 or whatever it was and go against our prevent defense than for them to try to hold on to their original lead but let us milk the clock.

you don’t think Atlanta would play differently if they know it is a one score or 2 score game with 4 minutes to play?

Setackin · Sep 22, 2020

TheDank said:
If there’s anything I’ve learned over the past few years it’s that you can present an absolute fact and you’ll still have a significant number of people disagree if there’s a psychological or emotional reason for them not to believe it. 60-30-10 is a better split than I expected.

I had to argue while watching the game with my Dad and Sister who have a PhD and Law Degree respectively and explain to them 5 times after we didn’t get it why it was the right call. Heck I think I remember someone saying Tony Dungy and Aikman disagree with the call. Two people respected for their football knowledge. Cognitive dissonance is a strong force indeed.

It’s also the narrative the majority of the sports media has decided to take.

EPL0c0 · Sep 22, 2020

who cares.

Everything worked out in the end.

Game was won.

TheKey · Sep 22, 2020

aikemirv said:
Disagree, any decision that you make that then makes it so you have to recover onside kick to win is a bad decision!

5 times out of 10 the team that kicks the xp in that situation and then scores later would tie the game.

1 time out of twenty at best, probably 1/30 or 40 statistically , the team that goes down by 9 wins the game.

In your example you are assuming that the 2pt conversion is successful 50% of the time in the first part and unsuccessful 100% of the time in the second sentence. Greatly changes the odds. Mathematically, you have to assume the 2 pt conversion is either always successful or never successful and then run the stats again.

Runwildboys · Sep 22, 2020

OmerV said:
Going for it on the first one may have been the better choice (or not), but explain the mathematics you are talking about. Is there some mathematical explanation for why a 2 point conversion would have a greater chance of success the first time than the second?

My guess is that the math doesn't support the odds of a successful 2 point conversion, but the odds of winning after failing to achieve one after the first of 2 TDs as compared to failing after the second of 2 TDs.

OmerV · Sep 22, 2020

Runwildboys said:
My guess is that the math doesn't support the odds of a successful 2 point conversion, but the odds of winning after failing to achieve one after the first of 2 TDs as compared to failing after the second of 2 TDs.

I get that's the point, but if that's true I've got to believe the difference in odds is tiny. I also think there are human factors that come into play that can't be quantified - some variables may not fit neatly into a mathematical calculation.

CowboyFrog · Sep 22, 2020

I'm trying to figure out why the poll isn't 100% for the first...since you know that's what they did and it worked...... Now if your posing the question like this "Hey if in the Seahawks game we do the same ridiculous S*** in the first quarter and its comes down to a 15 point game with 4 minutes left, when do we go for 2, first or second score" then there could be a poll. This scenario has already been solved in the Falcons game.

Diehardblues · Sep 22, 2020

TWOK11 said:
The two point try timing has no effect on success rate, however going for it after the first TD removes a previously unknown variable earlier in the game.

Down 15, you know you need either two or three scores depending on whether the two point try you will attempt at some point is converted. Statistically, your odds of winning go up if resolve that variable earlier as a matter of opportunity. If you fail the two point try, you want to know that information as early as possible.

Therein lies the problem. Down 15 you aren’t playing to win. You’re playing to extend the game with a tie.

Riverboat Mike is a gambler as we have seen his first two weeks and isn’t playing to extend the game with a tie. He’s rolling the dice to win.

TWOK11 · Sep 22, 2020

EPL0c0 said:
who cares.

Everything worked out in the end.

Game was won.

Because facts matter

TWOK11 · Sep 22, 2020

Diehardblues said:
Therein lies the problem. Down 15 you aren’t playing to win. You’re playing to extend the game with a tie.

Riverboat Mike is a gambler as we have seen his first two weeks and isn’t playing to extend the game with a tie. He’s rolling the dice to win.

Wrong, on all counts. You still don’t understand.

I was at the game with my six year old, and he understood this better than you after a 90 second explanation.

Diehardblues · Sep 22, 2020

OmerV said:
I get that's the point, but if that's true I've got to believe the difference in odds is tiny. I also think there are human factors that come into play that can't be quantified - some variables may not fit neatly into a mathematical calculation.

Yep

And I’d argue you’d have more momentum to convert after the 2nd TD regardless if the odds are even. While missing the conversion after the 1st TD deflated momentum knowing you’re still down 2 possessions. Basically a victory and potentially a momentum swing for the opponent.

Diehardblues · Sep 22, 2020

TWOK11 said:
Wrong, on all counts. You still don’t understand.

I was at the game with my six year old, and he understood this better than you after a 90 second explanation.

Prove me wrong.

Maxmadden · Sep 22, 2020

Diehardblues said:
Yep

And I’d argue you’d have more momentum to convert after the 2nd TD regardless if the odds are even. While missing the conversion after the 1st TD deflated momentum knowing you’re still down 2 possessions. Basically a victory and potentially a momentum swing for the opponent.

Did you watch the game?
It was real and it actually happened.

Do you think that after scoring the first TD that they decided to use their plan B goal line play and save the plan A goal line play for the Superbowl?

Diehardblues · Sep 22, 2020

This isn’t just about the percentage of whether it’s greater after the 1st or 2nd TD. It’s about the mentality and momentum of being down 1 or 2 scores. I’m not arguing mathematically whether it’s greater odds to score after 2nd than 1st. I would imagine it’s very close.

If you’re down 15 or 9 you still need 2 possessions. If you’re down 8 only down 1 possession. The mindset and momentum places more pressure on the opponent if you’re only down 1 score.

And why stats or analytics aren’t the only measurement. This a football game not a mathematical equation. Emotions in the moment need to be taken into consideration. I’d argue there’d be more momentum and sense of urgency to convert on 2nd score to tie and extend the game.

HungryLion · Sep 22, 2020

Diehardblues said:
This isn’t just about the percentage of whether it’s greater after the 1st or 2nd TD. It’s about the mentality and momentum of being down 1 or 2 scores. I’m not arguing mathematically who ether it’s greater odds to score after 2nd than 1st. I would imagine it’s very close.

If you’re down 15 or 9 you still need 2 possessions. If you’re down 8 only down 1 possession. The mindset and momentum places more pressure on the opponent if you’re only down 1 score.

And why stats or analytics aren’t the only measurement. This a football game not a mathematical equation. Emotions in the moment need to be taken into consideration. I’d argue there’d be more momentum and sense of urgency to convert on 2nd score to tie and extend the game.

This is all subjective. The counter to this argument I would make is

Well the cowboys did fail the 2 and did stay down by 9. Yet they still played their hearts out and came back for the win. So clearly it didn’t psychologically damage them or impede them from winning.

now we can debate how the falcons would react differently, but clearly it was not detrimental to the cowboys psychologically to go for the 2 early based on the fact that the whole team performed at a high level and won from that moment forward.

Diehardblues · Sep 22, 2020

Maxmadden said:
Did you watch the game?
It was real and it actually happened.

Do you think that after scoring the first TD that they decided to use their plan B goal line play and save the plan A goal line play for the Superbowl?

Of course I did. And I think it was dumb. Still do.

Diehardblues · Sep 22, 2020

DakPresgoat said:
This is all subjective. The counter to this argument I would make is

Well the cowboys did fail the 2 and did stay down by 9. Yet they still played their hearts out and came back for the win. So clearly it didn’t psychologically damage them or impede them from winning.

now we can debate how the falcons would react differently, but clearly it was not detrimental to the cowboys psychologically to go for the 2 early based on the fact that the whole team performed at a high level and won from that moment forward.

Only because of the Falcons epic failure to fall on onside kick. The result of the game just wash out the risky decision as being a contributing factor to the loss.

Of course it’s subjective. And I believe I’ve made a compelling argument .

Lutonio · Sep 22, 2020

DakPresgoat said:
This is all subjective. The counter to this argument I would make is

Well the cowboys did fail the 2 and did stay down by 9. Yet they still played their hearts out and came back for the win. So clearly it didn’t psychologically damage them or impede them from winning.

now we can debate how the falcons would react differently, but clearly it was not detrimental to the cowboys psychologically to go for the 2 early based on the fact that the whole team performed at a high level and won from that moment forward.

This is a great point, and the concern for something that would have influenced my choice to try the conversion later. The fact that the team held it together means there was some great leadership there, whether it was a team captain or McCarthy himself.

Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

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