My argument doesn’t revolve around the mathematical percentage .
I believe leaving the possibility of a 1 possession game elevates momentum. You can still plan for needing additional time for another possession if needed. Or onside kick.
And I also believe missing it after the 1st TD slows momentum . While the adrenaline after only needing the conversion after the 2nd TD is much greater.
If you miss it it’s the same situation as before still needing another possession. You still have to mange the time as though you might need it. But you at least left the opportunity for only needing 1 possession,
This is not how game situations work when you’re in a position NEEDING a two point conversion. That’s the key word - NEEDING. Given that it’s a 50/50 proposition of success no matter when you attempt it and given that it is 100% needed it is best to attempt it as early as possible so that you leave as much game time as you can to recover from potentially failing to convert.
It boils down to knowing what you absolutely have to know as soon you can know it so you can maximize your ability to win the game.
If Dallas kicks the XP at 4:57, MM doesn’t even know if he’s going to get the ball back, so managing for possessions at this point is practically irrelevant. Whether you kick the XP, convert the 2 pt play, or fail to convert, you still don’t know if you’re getting the ball back. No decision made will tell you anything regarding that so managing for something you can’t control is not a good strategy.
Secondly, if Dallas kicks the XP at 4:57 and they manage to get the ball back and drive to the RZ, they are going to milk the clock as much as possible because they DON’T KNOW if they are going to convert the 2 point play if they score. So they are managing the game at that point to leave ATL little to no time after the two point conversion is attempted so that if they are successful ATL will be pressed for time to score. The first problem with this is that you’ve totally screwed yourself if you fail to convert because you had to milk the clock with the assumption you were going to convert and if you don’t you’ve relegated recovery of an onside kick, if there is even any time left to attempt one basically a worthless proposition because even if you recover it, time constraints will greatly limit your potential to move the ball in FG range. The second problem with this is that you have now taken a 50/50 proposition that you don’t know if you’ll be successful converting and making it a do or die situation with little to no chance for any back up plan to help you recover from failing the conversion. If you fail, you lose. We failed at 4:57 and won. That’s the difference.
When MM attempted the 2 point conversion “known knowns” that you absolutely would not know otherwise are guaranteed as a result, regardless of failing or succeeding versus waiting to attempt the 2 point conversion which means you’re playing with uncertainty which would affect how you managed the clock. The bottom line is that if you’re going to fail the 2 point conversion you absolutely HAVE to convert in order to tie the game, it’s better to know with 4:57 left in the game than 15-30 seconds left, as an example. With one scenario you have time to potentially recover without being pressed on offense. With the other, you’ve squandered precious and valuable game time because of supposed psychological benefits. It’s bunk.
Having 1:40 left after the recovery was directly attributable to MM going for two at 4:57. If he waits for the second score, it’s highly likely because of how team’s want to manage the clock being down 8 in those situations that far far less time (if any) is on the clock when the needed second TD is scored which affects the success of a needed (if the 2 pt conversion fails) onside kick negatively even if it’s recovered because you’re likely to have little to no time to do anything. This is the whole crux of MM’s reasoning and it’s rock solid. He wanted to know as soon as possible whether or not they were going to convert the 2 point play so that the team could adjust accordingly.
