Dalton's play will decide Prescott's future

Future · Oct 13, 2020

Verdict said:
It’s all in how your frame the issue. If framed this way, that is correct.

On the other hand if Dalton is more successful than Dak because of his decision making, the powers that be may decide that Dalton is not the long term answer but keep him around in the short term on a cheaper deal, and let Dak walk instead of paying him twice what Dalton would make and go back to looking for another Dak.

This is why this argument doesn't work.

If Dalton plays well enough to do that, he's going to cost more than $30 million. We literally just saw this with Ryan Tannehill, who got $29.5. There is no scenario in which Dalton plays that well and then comes in at like $20 million. That is not the reality of the NFL.

Northern_Cowboy · Oct 13, 2020

Verdict said:
Dak was a 4th round pick. Herbert was a second round pick. Brees was a second round pick. Brady was a 6th round pick. QBs are found outside the 1st round.

I think Hurts was on our radar this year, but he went too high.

Of all the starting QB's in the NFL right now 22 were selected in the 1st round, so yes while you can find QB's in other rounds your chances are better if you take one in the 1st

HungryLion · Oct 13, 2020

Verdict said:
Dak was a 4th round pick. Herbert was a second round pick. Brees was a second round pick. Brady was a 6th round pick. QBs are found outside the 1st round.

I think Hurts was on our radar this year, but he went too high.

Herbert is was a top 10 pick.

you’re right that some QB’s are found outside of round 1. But also look how many QB’s outside of round 1 never amount to anything in the league.

the hit rate on QB’s outside of round 1 is like less than. 5%.

If the cowboys decide to draft a QB. That’s fine. I’m fine with it. But taking a QB in the later rounds isn’t a strategy. It’s throwing up a prayer.

it’s gotta be a first rounder. IMO. If you’re gonna go for it. Go for gold.

Northern_Cowboy · Oct 13, 2020

DakPresgoat said:
Herbert is was a top 10 pick.

you’re right that some QB’s are found outside of round 1. But also look how many QB’s outside of round 1 never amount to anything in the league.

the hit rate on QB’s outside of round 1 is like less than. 5%.

Exactly! Your chances of hitting on a QB go up dramatically if you take one in the 1st round

Swagger · Oct 13, 2020

Future said:
This is why this argument doesn't work.

If Dalton plays well enough to do that, he's going to cost more than $30 million. We literally just saw this with Ryan Tannehill, who got $29.5. There is no scenario in which Dalton plays that well and then comes in at like $20 million. That is not the reality of the NFL.

I would normally agree but Dalton has already earned well in excess of $100 million. Part of the reason why he signed for the Cowboys was to come home with his family. Is he really going to up sticks for another $8-10 million a year or would he take a home town discount?

I think there's a good chance of him signing for circa $20 million a year at this stage of his career and being back home.

USArmyVet · Oct 13, 2020

Future said:
It's not thought provoking lol. There is no scenario in which Andy Dalton plays so well that the Cowboys would rather make a long-term investment in him than in Dak.

If Dalton plays well enough to warrant that, he's going to cost more than $30 million. Dallas isn't going to move from Dak to Dalton for savings that unsubstantial.

Thanks for proving my point.

Swagger · Oct 13, 2020

DakPresgoat said:
Herbert is was a top 10 pick.

you’re right that some QB’s are found outside of round 1. But also look how many QB’s outside of round 1 never amount to anything in the league.

the hit rate on QB’s outside of round 1 is like less than. 5%.

If the cowboys decide to draft a QB. That’s fine. I’m fine with it. But taking a QB in the later rounds isn’t a strategy. It’s throwing up a prayer.

it’s gotta be a first rounder.

I agree it has to be a first rounder especially as teams are drafting QB's even higher so if you snooze you lose.

jaythecowboy · Oct 13, 2020

Reverend Conehead said:
Dalton is a high-quality backup and a stop-gap. He's not the team's future. If anyone is to threaten Dak's starting position, it will be a promising draftee, and we have to wait and see how Dak's rehab goes and if the team drafts a QB.

This is the main way I see Dalton's performance affecting Dak. If the team is so bad that they are in play for a top qb then they could elect to move on from Dak. Even then, they would franchise Dak to trade him or give the rookie qb a redshirt season.

Northern_Cowboy · Oct 13, 2020

Swagger said:
I would normally agree but Dalton has already earned well in excess of $100 million. Part of the reason why he signed for the Cowboys was to come home with his family. Is he really going to up sticks for another $8-10 million a year or would he take a home town discount?

I think there's a good chance of him signing for circa $20 million a year at this stage of his career and being back home.

If Dalton plays lights out the Cowboys would get him on a 3 year deal for somewhere between 28-30m and i bet it wouldn't all be guaranteed either. He is 33 and it would probably be his last deal. Now if he wins a SB then that number and years and guarantee would go up..but then who could complain about it if he wins a SB this year

HungryLion · Oct 13, 2020

Swagger said:
I agree it has to be a first rounder especially as teams are drafting QB's even higher so if you snooze you lose.

Agreed. More and more QB’s are being drafted earlier nowadays. We are having drafts where 3-4 QB’s are being taken. You’re really getting down to scraps by the time you’re into the second round.

guys like Brady and Russell and even Dak are very rare.

CPanther95 · Oct 13, 2020

With the defense in the state it's in, any scenario that looks to the draft for a new starting QB is going to be a last resort.

Hoofbite · Oct 13, 2020

Verdict said:
Dak was a 4th round pick. Herbert was a second round pick. Brees was a second round pick. Brady was a 6th round pick. QBs are found outside the 1st round.

I think Hurts was on our radar this year, but he went too high.

The fact that it can happen in the most unlikely of circumstances is not a reason to expect it to happen when your time comes. You've mentioned 4 players spanning about 20 years of having 32 total QBs in the NFL. Those aren't great odds. How many horrible QBs were picked in that time? I'm betting more than 4.

And excuse me for noticing that your have mentioned Dak amongst all those other great picks. If we're gonna put Dak in that category, why does it matter what Dalton does this year? The premise of this thread is that there is something Dalton can do that removes Dak from the equation. Why would anyone ever use Dak as an example of a good QB coming from later rounds and then also advocate for Dalton taking over in place of Dak, only so Dallas can finally try to find another top QB outside the top picks...just as they found Dak?

I realize you're just probably jumping into the middle here, but that's where we are at.

CowboyFrog · Oct 13, 2020

Northern_Cowboy said:
Your assuming Dalton won't play at a high level, that remains to be seen. Yes we have a horrible D and that doesn't bode well but by the same token Dalton never played with an offense in Cinci that has the talent that this offense has. It will be fun to watch and see what happens, personally i don't think the offense is going to miss a beat

its not that i dont think he will.....my point is if he does it want be better, it will be just as good as Dak who was already playing lights out, if he plays that way your assuming he would take a low contract instead of the many offers he will get around the league....so at that point for the same production all your doing is sining an older player to the same money........

12+88=7 · Oct 13, 2020

USArmyVet said:
While your post is a thought provoking post and well written while containing a valid debate, sadly you will not receive much in terms of open debate or feedback due to the "how dare you think to replace Dak" sentiment.

I first thought like yourself, but that has not turned out to be the case. The comments have been civil and stayed on point to the subject.

I was just thinking of the what ifs, where life throws you a curve and something unexpected.

Do I think Dalton will be successful enough to make Dallas reconsider Prescott. Probably not, but what if it happens. What would the team do? I just listed scenarios and gave educated guess as to how I believe they could playout according to the previous history of these negotiations.

If this team overcomes all the injuries and bad play and somehow they succeed in the end. It will make for the most interesting off season in Dallas history.

Swagger · Oct 13, 2020

12+88=7 said:
I first thought like yourself, but that has not turned out to be the case. The comments have been civil and stayed on point to the subject.

I was just thinking of the what ifs, where life throws you a curve and something unexpected.

Do I think Dalton will be successful enough to make Dallas reconsider Prescott. Probably not, but what if it happens. What would the team do? I just listed scenarios and gave educated guess as to how I believe they could playout according to the previous history of these negotiations.

If this team overcomes all the injuries and bad play and somehow they succeed in the end. It will make for the most interesting off season in Dallas history.

Jerry could also spin the narrative in that Dak was paid $31 million for playing in 5 games this season (and not mention how much he was paid for the previous four years obviously!) should he move on from him at the end of the season.

To be fair, Dak was offered a big long term contract so I don't think he has been done over by the front office. Plus another team would spin the wheel on him and overpay - there's always one team out there who takes a punt like that.

Northern_Cowboy · Oct 13, 2020

CowboyFrog said:
its not that i dont think he will.....my point is if he does it want be better, it will be just as good as Dak who was already playing lights out, if he plays that way your assuming he would take a low contract instead of the many offers he will get around the league....so at that point for the same production all your doing is sining an older player to the same money........

Well let me put it this way Dak reportedly turned down a 5 year deal at approx 33- 35m with 110m guarantee and it is reported he wants 40m per season. If Dalton plays lights out and will sign a 4 year deal at 33-35m per season with 110m guaranteed it is still less than the 40m Dak wants. Age doesn't matter at this point Dalton is 33, lots of years left, and if you want to go that route how do you know with the injury Dak just sufferred that he will be the same, better yet how do you know the ankle won't be a future problem for him? fact is you don't know it might be and it might not be. He has to play find out so isn't there a risk in signing him to a big deal only to find out the ankle becomes a chronic problem? 2 sides to every coin bud, again it's a moot point unless Dalton plays lights out

CowboyFrog · Oct 13, 2020

Swagger said:
I would normally agree but Dalton has already earned well in excess of $100 million. Part of the reason why he signed for the Cowboys was to come home with his family. Is he really going to up sticks for another $8-10 million a year or would he take a home town discount?

I think there's a good chance of him signing for circa $20 million a year at this stage of his career and being back home.

Maybe but your asking someone to take a 10 million dollar cut.......so what 1 out of hundreds would do this? he signed with the Cowboys because he was home during COVID with not alot of GM's rinigng his phone.

JonesBoys · Oct 13, 2020

We already know what Andy Dalton is. A good backup QB. His play will have zero effect on Dak’s contract unless Dalton morphs into Kurt Warner out of nowhere like in 99. I will bet on that not happening.

CowboyFrog · Oct 13, 2020

Northern_Cowboy said:
Well let me put it this way Dak reportedly turned down a 5 year deal at approx 33- 35m with 110m guarantee and it is reported he wants 40m per season. If Dalton plays lights out and will sign a 4 year deal at 33-35m per season with 110m guaranteed it is still less than the 40m Dak wants. Age doesn't matter at this point Dalton is 33, lots of years left, and if you want to go that route how do you know with the injury Dak just sufferred that he will be the same, better yet how do you know the ankle won't be a future problem for him? fact is you don't know it might be and it might not be. He has to play find out so isn't there a risk in signing him to a big deal only to find out the ankle becomes a chronic problem? 2 sides to every coin bud

true anything could happen for sure.....I would say we are all betting on outcomes based on what we percieve as reality, for sure. We will see what Dalton has left so that will answer that soon enough.

InTheZone · Oct 13, 2020

CowboyFrog said:
if Dalton leads the league in passing (lights out) and take THIS TEAM deep in playoffs....what kind of discount are we getting to sign him? I think everyone agrees on the less we pay players the better, but at some point everyone needs to understand ..a good QB season gets ridiculous money.....So in your scenario of Dalton will work because he is cheaper..tell me what lights out is?

Getting to the playoffs meant you won the east....I think we were going to win the east anyway.

lights out is less 41-14s going into the 4th Q and more consistency with the offense for most of the game, not just one quarter

Dalton's play will decide Prescott's future

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