Why Dak is a Paper Tiger

khiladi

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Dak is a PAPER tiger, period. If he didn’t see 8-in-the-box all the time, who knows how bad it would be.
Again, the stats that are used especially in this era, with all these armchair Twitter analysts that never played a sport, are completely over-hyped. Both Marino and Elway were career upper 50% completion percentage, while Aikman was 62%. We’ve seen rules and rules progressively get laxer to intentionally boost offensive rating for viewership and in the process, they’ve almost destroyed the sport or hide mediocrity in these numbers.

Completion percentage completely obfuscates the reality of Dak. It isn’t about what numbers Dak puts on the field for his critics, it’s actually what he LEAVES OFF THE FIELD.

Despite this massive jump in production against man defense, Prescott has not had nearly as much success against a zone defense and his IQR has dropped from 100 to 84 with Cooper on the roster. Though he has an 80 percent completion percentage versus zones, it’s almost entirely short-pass based. He has no touchdowns and two interceptions on 91 attempts.

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com...-amari-cooper-face-challenge-with-colts-zone/

The “eye-test” is true, if one wants to actually dig deeper into the numbers. Dak can obviously throw the ball as a one-read QB, but he’s completely incompetent against zones and where he needs to anticipate and go through progressions. This is where the “Jekyll-Hyde” analogy comes from. In reality, it’s not JH, it’s Dak being Dak. Some QBs, you need to completely tailor an offense around abd baby-sit. That’s pretty much the majority of QBs in the game on an NFL level.

These stats show that Dak very rarely takes risks when he needs to go through his reads or find WRs in soft zones, particularly down the field. He just plays it safe, which boosts completion percentage but nothing else, meaning empty yardage. This is also evident this year as well as last, in his red-zone production and outside of garbage time, when scores are within 7 in the fourth quarter, meaning a TD. Dak’s accuracy goes way up, playing from WAY behind and he’s just slinging it on his first read and taking the underneath. His decision-making which is completely slow, coupled with his slow release, becomes accelerated. But when defenses go back to playing tighter, after slacking, Dak is going back to 4.6 YP catch, 61%, no more “deep ball” Dak with 1 pass over 20 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. And the real kicker is his 1 down percentage, which drops to a whopping 27.8%, meaning he can’t even sustain drives.

Oh yeah, he’s also pretty garbage when he’s playing on grass as well, meaning his numbers often projected as him being the ‘best deep thrower’ in football are often a product of the type of WRs he had running on turf. We see Gallup’s route patterns in particular. Dak on the other hand couldn’t get it done at all with Dez as the primary, because Dez couldn’t beat many WRs flat out in a foot race. And Dez ran a LOT of go-routes. But him and TWilliams were 1 and 3 respectively in go-routes ran and caught in 2014, when Tony Romo actually ran the offense. Now with the speed on the outside, the rushing attack of Zeke, it’s no surprise Romo’s comments during last Sunday’s game regarding the run, setting it up for what should be easy killing on the outside. I mean Romo was probably licking his chops.

https://www.nfl.com/players/dak-prescott/stats/situational


And just because you have an great WR in a guy like Green or CJ, doesn’t mean you are going to win. Advantages in the run game are what create meaningful opportunities for outstanding WRs to excel. Otherwise, good defenses have no problems shifting safety help over the top, for example, using a team effort to completely eliminate a particular thread. The reality is, if we were going by stats, Dalton set plenty of Bengals records that Dak couldn’t fathom on that Bengals team. Their rushing attack was averaging less than 4 YPC and they had a bunch of no names running the ball when Dalton was pushing the 6th ranked scoring attack.

If anything, Dalton brings excitement because he has a legitimate RG and beast who is also one of the great pass blocking backs. And our red-zone percentage is probably going to be the key difference and a point to look for next game to see if Dalton is really worth it.
 
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stilltheguru

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Again, when he fails you will just say nothing. Meanwhile you just keep running your mouth about how good he will be. Thats clown **** and I'm not even a Dak (stan). When Andy fails maybe its an indictment on your player evaluation
 

khiladi

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Again, when he fails you will just say nothing. Meanwhile you just keep running your mouth about how good he will be. Thats clown **** and I'm not even a Dak (stan). When Andy fails maybe its an indictment on your player evaluation

Another personal attack that has zero to do with football. The “I’m not even a Dak-Stan” is clearly a defense mechanism so that when Dalton does what he does, you can be ready to say “well I never hitched my wagon to Dak”. You, my friend, are the very definition of a Dak-Stan, but you think your slick.

I got no problems in saying I think Dalton will be better and way better at that, as far as real football is concerned, not paper, garbage time stats.
 

stilltheguru

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Another personal attack that has zero to do with football. The “I’m not even a Dak-Stan” is clearly a defense mechanism so that when Dalton does what he does, you can be ready to say “well I never hitched my wagon to Dak”. You, my friend, are the very definition of a Dak-Stan, but you think your slick.

I got no problems in saying I think Dalton will be better and way better at that, as far as real football is concerned, not paper, garbage time stats.
Smh. Like I said, when you're wrong have the same energy. And i dont need to lie about Dak. He's a good qb. Not bad not great.
 

65fastback2plus2

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Again, when he fails you will just say nothing. Meanwhile you just keep running your mouth about how good he will be. Thats clown **** and I'm not even a Dak (stan). When Andy fails maybe its an indictment on your player evaluation

no one hits 100% on player evaluation...so how is one miss on a player going to be an indictment? lol
 

khiladi

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Smh. Like I said, when you're wrong have the same energy. And i dont need to lie about Dak. He's a good qb. Not bad not great.

Funny, I don’t go about telling you how to post and where to direct your energy. Why do you also got to make it personal?

This is a football forum and me hating on Dak, unlike garbage personal posts above, is rooted with football stats, meaning I can post whatever the hell I want as long as it’s football related and you should be fine with it, because it’s related To football. How about you keep the same energy on minding your own business on what I post of do not post because I don’t have a man crush like you do on Dak?

You are the very definition of a Dak-Stan as these posts demonstrate..
 

LACowboysFan1

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Another personal attack that has zero to do with football. The “I’m not even a Dak-Stan” is clearly a defense mechanism so that when Dalton does what he does, you can be ready to say “well I never hitched my wagon to Dak”. You, my friend, are the very definition of a Dak-Stan, but you think your slick.

I got no problems in saying I think Dalton will be better and way better at that, as far as real football is concerned, not paper, garbage time stats.

How can Dalton be "way" better? In wins? I thought that was a team thing, Dak's not responsible when they win, it's a team win, but if they lose it's Dak's fault according to many here.
But you don't like "garbage time" stats, then quote other stats. Are stats a measure of a quarterback, or not? Can't say yes if they help you but no if they don't.

As far as the situational numbers go, the raw numbers aren't good for Dak, like for instance the field position completion percentage. But what happens when an offense gets inside the 20 vs say at their own 20? Always 11 defenders, but in the first case those 11 have to cover about 2,120 sq yards of field (53 x 40, including 20 yards of end zone). But in the second case they have to cover 4,770 square yards (90 x 53). Stands to reason the closer defenders are the easier it is to knock down passes or closely cover receivers. So is it Dak responsible for the lower numbers, or due to the situation?

Road games have opposing crowd noise (not applicable this year of course) to deal with, harder to get calls off and get as good as a completion percentage. Even with no crowd noise, every field is different, again stands to reason you'd complete more passes on more familiar turf.

Late in games if behind more chances have to be taken, more risky passes so the completion percentage is likely lower.

But are we really going to be able to judge Dalton accurately? The o-line isn't very good, compared to last year we have no Smith, no Frederick, no Collins. Martin can't do it on his own. Dalton's history is that he doesn't handle a heavy rush well. And since here apparently Pro Football Focus is the god of player evaluations, according to many, what do we find in Dalton as of 2019? Well let's see:

"Dalton ranked in the third tier, which was the largest of he four tiers they assembled. The third tier was quarterbacks who are “Volatile or conservative quarterbacks whose production will rely even more heavily on supporting cast and play calling. Tier 3 quarterbacks can post top-10 production in any given year in the right situation.”

I don't see he has the supporting cast, as far as o-line, tight end and coaching at this time to be "way better" than Dak. I hope he is, always enjoy the Cowboys winning, but I don't expect him to be any better than Dak, if that due to the line situation...
 
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