Lawrence has a legitimate chance to be a better NFL QB than Dak. For starters, he's already physically more gifted than Dak. Plus he's been projected as the consensus #1 overall pick for quite awhile, which says a lot to me personally. Dak is a good, solid, NFL QB. But imo, Lawrence has a shot to be a better overall QB than Dak.
Okay fine.. Would you like for me to run down the list of can't miss, has all the tools, can make all the throws QBs who have come out in the draft in the last 20 years? Guys like Lawrence come out of college every year.. Sure he has a legitimate chance to be better than Dak.. But frankly the percentages lean WAAAAAY the other way.. Many many many more guys come into the league and fail or at least don't ascend to the top of the mountain than who exceed what Dak has accomplished. Five years ago we were told that Carson Wentz was going to take over the NFL because he has all the tools, can make all the throws, and is big and athletic. Only the biggest Philly homers and staunch Dak haters are still clinging to that take. I am conservative by nature.. so no one is going to talk me into rolling the dice on a maybe better than Dak when I already have a very good NFL QB in Dak. I have been watching the NFL for 55 years and I have seen more of these "next big thing" QBs than I can count. Meanwhile the best QBs I have seen were a 6th or 7th round Pick.. Roger Staubach. A 3rd round pick.. Russell Wilson.. another 6th rounder.. Tom Brady.. a 2nd round pick Joe Montana.. Ironically the only first round picks who break into those ranks are Dan Marino and Aaron Rodgers.. both of whom had to sit through the disappointment of being passed over by 25+ teams despite being potential all time greats. Forgive me if I am missing some other greats who warrant mentioning here.. I guess I should throw Peyton Manning and John Elway in there.. Was Kurt Warner even drafted? I think you get my drift.. The NFL has bought into these college hype machine QBs for decades.. Sometimes it works out.. but more often it doesn't.
Look at this list of #1 overall pick QBs..
2020 Burrow.. - promising start.. jury still out
2019 Kyler Murray - see Burrow above
2018 Baker Mayfield - coach has realized that he can't be counted on.. leaning on defense and running game.
2016 Goff - see Mayfield
2015 Winston - already washed out of one team well on his way to being a bust.
2012 Luck - injuries beat him out of the game.
2011 Newton - almost out of the league.. (one MVP but hurt shoulder did him in)
2010 Bradford - done before age 30 bust
2009 Stafford - good player .. never great
2007 Russell - out of the league by age 25. bust
2005 Smith - hanging in there after almost losing his leg.. played OK most of his career..
2004 Eli - two Super Bowl runs.. basically dawg poo the rest of his career
2003 Palmer - good player.. never great
2002 Carr - bust
2001 Vick - exciting for stretches.. never fulfilled the promise of his early career (Dogs and injuries took him out)
1999 Couch - bust
1998 Peyton - Hall of Famer.
On that list there is only one I would take over Dak and that's Peyton Manning.. But people are bending over backward to tell me that Trevor Lawrence will buck the trend.. All I can ask is "based on what?" The evidence says there's about an 80% chance that he will never approach what Dak is doing and it's more likely he will be average or below than he will be great..
