How would the top of the draft need to shape up for Dallas to get a top draft haul?

It seems like a lock that the top two quarterbacks will go to the Jets and Jags. One of them is Lawrence, and the other one is either Fields or one of the other top 4 or 5 QBs, depending on whose draft rankings you're looking at.

Cincinnati seems to have an edge at #3. They don't need a QB and they tend to stay put, so there's a chance they draft the first non-QB in the draft. Maybe Sewell?

That's where things get interesting. No one is going to pay "QB money" to trade into the #4 spot if the 5, 6, 7, and 8 teams don't need a QB. If the next QB-hungry team up doesn't draft until 10, someone is going to try to come up at 9 and then start working their way up the chain until they get a deal done (8, 7, 6, 5...). That puts the fourth overall team last in the pecking order.

Ironically, in that scenario it's worse to be at 4 than it is to be at 9 if your goal is to get the maximum number of draft picks in a trade down.

Looking at the current draft order, it's hard to see a likely trading partner at #4, but there are still five games left. How would the top of the draft need to shape up for Dallas to get a haul of draft picks? Who are the two teams that are likely to be competing for the third QB in the draft? One of them will be your trading partner looking to jump the other one. I don't see any other players in the draft who would warrant that kind of trade.

Barring any surprise revelation, it's going to go:

1. Lawrence
2. Fields or Wilson
3. Sewell
4. Trade up for Fields or Wilson
*3 and 4 could switch if someone offers the Bengals a deal they cannot refuse.

Pick 5 is where things could get interesting if a team or teams fall in love with Trey Lance.

4 is not a bad spot to be, although I do think Dallas will win another game or two, and be drafting later.

At 4 you are either either getting a 20-year old freaky-athletic tackle or you should benefit from a trade frenzy for QB3. The 2022 QB class is not looking great so teams could get desperate this year and convince themselves QB4 is a must have. I'm always terrified the Jones Boys will get beat badly in a draft day trade scenario, but I don't think even they could mess this up.

How much as I would want the Cowboys to move to the 3rd Pick...I have a feeling that they might win another game or two. That's just my gut, but I been wrong before. I believe the best spot is at 3...if not than I hope we fall a bit so that we don't reach for a player we might not really be so high and with nobody to trade down I don't think we would get as much value for our 3. I do think if they dropped to say 5-8 we could get a trade for a team moving up and we could maybe get another 2nd Round Pick. I just don't see a team trading up unless they really want a QB say like Wilson. In the top 10 right now.....you have maybe Carolina , Commanders, Maybe Detroit and Atlanta who might want to Draft a QB, but I don't think they will move up........I think they will just sit back and go from there.

I think the only way we can get a draft haul is if.....we sign Dak and teams know we want to trade down and teams will target our position as a team that is willing to trade down. That's why moving back maybe 5-9 might be the sweet spot.

1. Jets. QB. Trevor
2 Jacksonville. QB. Fields
3 Bengals. NO QB. Sewell
4-8. Chargers. NO QB
4-8 Phili. NO QB
4-8 Carolina Maybe
4-8. Wash. QB

We are going to be in there somewhere......I think after Phili would be good, because I think Phili is going WR. Chargers will go DEF....since no Offense player is rated high enough. If we are in the bunch before Carolina and Washington.....than that when a team will probably want to trade up know those two teams might draft a QB. That where our pick might come from. I think Chicago, Minnesota, Denver and NE are going to be looking at Wilson and Trey Lance. Will they be able to wait? I think NE would like to get a QB....NE Coach wants a challenge and he might be ready to get a new TOM...he's not going to wait to see if he gets lucky in the 7th Round. Chicago also might want to start over....If we trade down with them.....I like as our potential pics as Pitts TE, Wyatt Davis G, Horn CB,

Could Cinci prefer Chase to Sewell? Weirder stuff has happened.

VACowboy said:

Could Cinci prefer Chase to Sewell? Weirder stuff has happened.

Click to expand...

That would be a huge weapon for Burrow.

Hardline said:

That would be a huge weapon for Burrow.

Click to expand...

Yeh. IMHO that's how the draft needs to fall: 1. Lawrence, 2. Fields, 3. Chase, 4. Sewell

KingintheNorth said:

Barring any surprise revelation, it's going to go:

1. Lawrence
2. Fields or Wilson
3. Sewell
4. Trade up for Fields or Wilson
*3 and 4 could switch if someone offers the Bengals a deal they cannot refuse.

Pick 5 is where things could get interesting if a team or teams fall in love with Trey Lance.

4 is not a bad spot to be, although I do think Dallas will win another game or two, and be drafting later.

At 4 you are either either getting a 20-year old freaky-athletic tackle or you should benefit from a trade frenzy for QB3. The 2022 QB class is not looking great so teams could get desperate this year and convince themselves QB4 is a must have. I'm always terrified the Jones Boys will get beat badly in a draft day trade scenario, but I don't think even they could mess this up.

Click to expand...

4 is probably the last spot for a team looking to trade up for a franchise QB. If the Cowboys pick falls past that, probably will need to overdraft or take less in a trade back scenario.

Cowboyny said:

4 is probably the last spot for a team looking to trade up for a franchise QB. I

Click to expand...

As we stand today, probably correct.


However. never underestimate a team's ability to fall in love with a Quarterback.

Let's say Jets go Lawrence, Jaguars go Fields, Bengals get a great package from Washington for Zack Wilson, Chargers (at 4 by that point) go Sewell. We are kind of sitting in no-mans land, having to draft Parsons or 1 of the 2 CB's a little higher than we'd like to. But then just one of these potential scenarios happens: John Elway and the Broncos. the Bears new HC, or Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, just falls in love with Trey Lance's potential. Now they want to jump up to 5.

You have to kind of know what the 2022 QB class looks like when considering a move like that. Kedon Slovis? Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma? Sam Howell from North Carolina? Trey Lance might start looking real good to some teams.

Hardline said:

That would be a huge weapon for Burrow.

Click to expand...

I think protecting burrow is the smart move
But this is the bengals

Assuming Fields goes #2 to the Jaguars, which teams will be in play for Wilson, Lance, or Trask? Washington, Atlanta, Denver, Detroit? These are all four-win teams already. There's no guarantee that any of them will draft in the Top 5.

At this point I'm thinking that it doesn't matter how high your pick is. All that matters is being one spot ahead of whichever one of those teams is in the best position to take the third quarterback on the board. No one is going to pay a higher price to move up to #4 if all they need to do is move up to #8.

Now, if enough of those teams start trying to outmaneuver each other, things could change. This will be interesting to watch.

KingintheNorth said:

As we stand today, probably correct.


However. never underestimate a team's ability to fall in love with a Quarterback.

Let's say Jets go Lawrence, Jaguars go Fields, Bengals get a great package from Washington for Zack Wilson, Chargers (at 4 by that point) go Sewell. We are kind of sitting in no-mans land, having to draft Parsons or 1 of the 2 CB's a little higher than we'd like to. But then just one of these potential scenarios happens: John Elway and the Broncos. the Bears new HC, or Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, just falls in love with Trey Lance's potential. Now they want to jump up to 5.

You have to kind of know what the 2022 QB class looks like when considering a move like that. Kedon Slovis? Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma? Sam Howell from North Carolina? Trey Lance might start looking real good to some teams.

Click to expand...

That's the best case scenario if 4 QB's go within the top 5. Read Kiper say that he expects 5 to go in rd 1, so it is possible. The more I read, the more it looks like Sewell is the only non-QB wroth a top 5 pick, even top 10. If I'm the Cowboys even if they miss out on the QB trades, I would even consider moving back for less as we can get a similar prospect at say 7 to 15. Things can change, but everyone is stating the lack of top end talent in next year's class.

I took 538's projections for the remaining games to get an idea of how things might shake out. That gives us something that looks like this:

1. Jets
2. Jaguars
3. Bengals
4. Cowboys
5. Chargers
6. Broncos - Need a QB
7. Lions - Need a QB? Is it time to move on from Stafford?
8. WFT - Need a QB?
9. Panthers - Need a QB, maybe? Will they stick with Bridgewater?
10. Miami (Texans)
11. Eagles
12. Falcons - Need a QB? Is it time to move on?
13. 49ers
14. Patriots - Need QB

Maybe Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, or NE wants to jump Denver for that third quarterback. In this scenario, they probably call the Chargers first, and then us if they can't work out a favorable deal.

If Washington, Denver, or Detroit finishes at #5 and we finish 4, then there's a good chance we're in position to win the QB trade down sweepstakes. I think that's the scenario we need to root for. Cowboys at 4, and either Washington, Denver, or Detroit at 5.

After thinking about it some more, I want Washington to finish fifth overall because they are our least likely trading partner. If the Chargers are at 5, then that hurts our negotiating leverage because they're also a potential trade down partner for someone.

That means we get to fleece one of these teams:

- Broncos
- Falcons
- Lions
- Panthers (maybe?)
- Patriots

There are also teams like the Bears, Colts, or Saints who won't be drafting as high but could still try to trade up. Take your pick. Who is the most desperate? Which HC or GM's job is hottest?

Two weeks ago, i thought the best thing for the Cowboys is to finish strong and win the division. After the debacle and 4th quarter collapse on Thanksgiving, I've done a 180 - the best thing is the 3rd pick overall. It gives us leverage in the Dak negotiation as it guarantee's the Cowboys either Fields or Wilson as a fallback. It's also a spot where teams needing QB will want to get in order to guarantee Fields or Wilson - assuming the Dak contract extension is done. If a trade down doesn't pan out, the "consolation" prize is Sewell.

One area of concern is that the teams who might want to trade up don't have a lot of extra picks this year. Nothing wrong with future picks, but don't count on getting multiple first or second rounders this year. Maybe you can fleece another top 10 team for their second and a future pick.

There's absolutely no value to be had in trading to the bottom half of the draft if you want picks THIS year. Jacksonville, Miami, and NYJ already have them all, and they're not trading with us.

Using the projected order of this trade chart, you can get a feel for what types of scenarios we could expect: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Let's say the Lions are looking to jump the Broncos for a QB but the Chargers have a guy they want. Detroit could offer a third and possibly another mid-round (or future) pick to move up to #4. Or a team drafting in that 9-11 spot could offer their second round pick, which is a much better scenario in my opinion.

Unless someone is willing to part with future first and second rounders, this year is looking more like 2016 in regards to the #4 pick. Not a lot of trade down scenarios that would result in someone overpaying by a ton.

For us to “get a real haul” we need to be picking 1 overall and take Lawrence

Uncle_Hank said:

I took 538's projections for the remaining games to get an idea of how things might shake out. That gives us something that looks like this:

1. Jets
2. Jaguars
3. Bengals
4. Cowboys
5. Chargers
6. Broncos - Need a QB
7. Lions - Need a QB? Is it time to move on from Stafford?
8. WFT - Need a QB?
9. Panthers - Need a QB, maybe? Will they stick with Bridgewater?
10. Miami (Texans)
11. Eagles
12. Falcons - Need a QB? Is it time to move on?
13. 49ers
14. Patriots - Need QB

Maybe Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, or NE wants to jump Denver for that third quarterback. In this scenario, they probably call the Chargers first, and then us if they can't work out a favorable deal.

If Washington, Denver, or Detroit finishes at #5 and we finish 4, then there's a good chance we're in position to win the QB trade down sweepstakes. I think that's the scenario we need to root for. Cowboys at 4, and either Washington, Denver, or Detroit at 5.

Click to expand...

Think this is about right. It's important to finish in front of at least one of LAC and CIN.

However, I'd be surprised if Cinci didn't take offers on that pick. It would drive the price for #4 down.

Future said:

Think this is about right. It's important to finish in front of at least one of LAC and CIN.

However, I'd be surprised if Cinci didn't take offers on that pick. It would drive the price for #4 down.

Click to expand...

Week 14 against Cincinnati might end up being the most important game this year for the future of the franchise.

Hardline said:

That would be a huge weapon for Burrow.

Click to expand...

I think they might take the OL pick before a WR. I think they can get a serviceable WR later on. No reason to draft a WR when your Franchise QB needs to be protected.