Twitter: Jerry on Dak: Evolving into NFL QB, "Picture Perfect"

RonnieT24 said:

I would counter that with this question: How in the world does any good GM walk away from his franchise QB? This aint Blake Bortles or Blaine Gabbert we're talking about.. We're talking about a consensus top 10 QB who was trending toward top 5 who was leading the top offense in the league over his last 21 starts. All while playing behind an injury riddled offensive line and with a running back that 50% of the posters on this site tells us is washed up? Oh and with an OC still in diapers coaching-wise.

As for the cap in '23 forward? The new TV deals are going to dwarf what they are now and when they add in the streaming deals the cap might go up 40-50% .. I think in 2025 the cap will be closer to 300 million than 200. In which case 35-40 million for your QB is going to be a veritable bargain. 20% of 300 would be 60 million.. So any cap number under that will be "team friendly."

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I would actually prefer that instead of trying to "counter", you just address the question. However, since you would rather take this approach, lets have a look at it.

First of all, there is nothing proving that Dak is the Franchise, at all. He's not Blake Bortles or Blaine Gabbert? Well let me just clue everybody in here, he's also not Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers. He's not a top 10 QB now, nor when he was injured, IMO. Top QBs get there teams to the post season and challenge for championships. Dak didn't even have a winning season going when he was put on the shelf and the season before that, he was .500 so he was not a top QB or trending that way IMO. If you want to believe that, that's fine, but there is no proof of that.

So the question you ask, how does any good GM walk away from a Franchise QB? Well, Jerry is the GM so the answer to that is, "with no concerns over getting fired" but there again, you can scream at the sky and rave that you can't do this but if you can't afford to pay that guy and he isn't producing wins, then what's the difference? You do what you gotta do.

"playing behind an injury riddled offensive line and with a running back that 50% of the posters on this site tells us is washed up? Oh and with an OC still in diapers coaching-wise. "


You do understand that Dalton, a lessor QB, dealt with all of these things as well, in fact, dealt with even more injuries and produced more wins right? The things you say in this statement, will not be made better by paying Dak more. In fact, it will likely make them worse because the ability for this team to replace those injured players or bring in quality depth or keep improved players is lessoned because of the availability of actual cap. All of this is just made worse by overpaying.

Your projections for 23, 24, 25 are just that. They are projections based on no hard data. In fact, this board was full of posters who claimed that the cap would never go down but it did. We would never again see a time where the NFL cap would not increase, but it did. No, I do not think it's wise to bet on things you have no real knowledge of and lets face it, none of us know what the future holds so none of us can know what the situation might look like in future years. You can't bet the future of the team on "I thinks". That, to me, is a bad way to run a team.

JMO

ABQCOWBOY said:

I would actually prefer that instead of trying to "counter", you just address the question. However, since you would rather take this approach, lets have a look at it.

First of all, there is nothing proving that Dak is the Franchise, at all. He's not Blake Bortles or Blaine Gabbert? Well let me just clue everybody in here, he's also not Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers. He's not a top 10 QB now, nor when he was injured, IMO. Top QBs get there teams to the post season and challenge for championships. Dak didn't even have a winning season going when he was put on the shelf and the season before that, he was .500 so he was not a top QB or trending that way IMO. If you want to believe that, that's fine, but there is no proof of that.

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By this logic Ryan, Stafford and Rivers should all have been shown the door the last several years. You keep wanting to harp on this "winning season" thing like Dak was playing a 1 on 1 pickup game against the other QB. No one has argued that Dak is Mahomes or Rodgers or even Wilson.. However when I flip through the Sunday Ticket channels I am hard pressed to find 10 guys playing the position at a higher level than he was. I might could find 5 or 6 (and that would require some squinting) but that's about it. Dak doesn't have to be Rodgers or Mahomes to win a Super Bowl.. last I checked they each have one more championship ring than you and I do.. Lots of guys NOT named Rodgers or Mahomes have won Super Bowls.. many of them while playing at a significantly lower level than Dak.. because they were playing for good TEAMS.

ABQCOWBOY said:

So the question you ask, how does any good GM walk away from a Franchise QB? Well, Jerry is the GM so the answer to that is, "with no concerns over getting fired" but there again, you can scream at the sky and rave that you can't do this but if you can't afford to pay that guy and he isn't producing wins, then what's the difference? You do what you gotta do.

"playing behind an injury riddled offensive line and with a running back that 50% of the posters on this site tells us is washed up? Oh and with an OC still in diapers coaching-wise. "


You do understand that Dalton, a lessor QB, dealt with all of these things as well, in fact, dealt with even more injuries and produced more wins right? The things you say in this statement, will not be made better by paying Dak more. In fact, it will likely make them worse because the ability for this team to replace those injured players or bring in quality depth or keep improved players is lessoned because of the availability of actual cap. All of this is just made worse by overpaying.

Your projections for 23, 24, 25 are just that. They are projections based on no hard data. In fact, this board was full of posters who claimed that the cap would never go down but it did. We would never again see a time where the NFL cap would not increase, but it did. No, I do not think it's wise to bet on things you have no real knowledge of and lets face it, none of us know what the future holds so none of us can know what the situation might look like in future years. You can't bet the future of the team on "I thinks". That, to me, is a bad way to run a team.

JMO

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You say Dalton produced more wins.. Well maybe getting more opportunities had something to do with that. I mean he did start 9 games.. and the four teams he beat had a combined record of 21-41-2. He also lost 4 games by at least 17 points. Three of those came against teams with a losing record and the fourth was to the Cards who were 8-8. Say what you will about Dak, but he at the very least generally owned bottom feeder teams. Dalton went 4-3 against teams that finished .500 or worse. Dak went 6-1 against such teams last year and was 2-0 this year. Oh and he was 8-3 against those teams in 2018. You have to start by beating the teams you're supposed to beat. Then steal one or two a year against teams you're not supposed to beat. Until you eventually become the team that is supposed to beat everybody.

The inability to see the future extends to everything.. including how the wunderkinds from college will pan out. You have to just play the percentages and what you believe is more likely to happen. Dak continues to improve and the team defensive draft picks and free agent pickups give you a decent defense to pair with your formidable offense or THIS year produces the first rookie QB in NFL history to lead his team to a Super Bowl. Mind you there is no right or wrong answer.. Every person is entitled to see it how they see it.. We all know the only person whose sight really matters is Jerry's. Pointing out that the cap will go down this year is being overly simplistic. Nobody saw Covid coming.. if in 2019 someone had said "there will be a disease in 2020 that will force teams to play in empty stadiums" I think most people would have agreed that the cap was going to go down because of the drop in revenue and no one would have argued it.

As for running the team on "I thinks".. every aspect of sports is an "I think." There are no guarantees of anything.. Like I said.. it's in the percentages. Nothing more, nothing less. We all know the cap is probably doing down in 2021 but we don't know how much. We also know that the NFL and the networks are going to do everything in their power to make sure it's a one time deal. And once the NFL starts shopping games out to streaming services and taps into that worldwide audience, it's gonna be on an poppin. I believe we will see a 50 million dollar a year player by 2025. And it won't even be a big deal.

RonnieT24 said:

By this logic Ryan, Stafford and Rivers should all have been shown the door the last several years. You keep wanting to harp on this "winning season" thing like Dak was playing a 1 on 1 pickup game against the other QB. No one has argued that Dak is Mahomes or Rodgers or even Wilson.. However when I flip through the Sunday Ticket channels I am hard pressed to find 10 guys playing the position at a higher level than he was. I might could find 5 or 6 (and that would require some squinting) but that's about it. Dak doesn't have to be Rodgers or Mahomes to win a Super Bowl.. last I checked they each have one more championship ring than you and I do.. Lots of guys NOT named Rodgers or Mahomes have won Super Bowls.. many of them while playing at a significantly lower level than Dak.. because they were playing for good TEAMS.



You say Dalton produced more wins.. Well maybe getting more opportunities had something to do with that. I mean he did start 9 games.. and the four teams he beat had a combined record of 21-41-2. He also lost 4 games by at least 17 points. Three of those came against teams with a losing record and the fourth was to the Cards who were 8-8. Say what you will about Dak, but he at the very least generally owned bottom feeder teams. Dalton went 4-3 against teams that finished .500 or worse. Dak went 6-1 against such teams last year and was 2-0 this year. Oh and he was 8-3 against those teams in 2018. You have to start by beating the teams you're supposed to beat. Then steal one or two a year against teams you're not supposed to beat. Until you eventually become the team that is supposed to beat everybody.

The inability to see the future extends to everything.. including how the wunderkinds from college will pan out. You have to just play the percentages and what you believe is more likely to happen. Dak continues to improve and the team defensive draft picks and free agent pickups give you a decent defense to pair with your formidable offense or THIS year produces the first rookie QB in NFL history to lead his team to a Super Bowl. Mind you there is no right or wrong answer.. Every person is entitled to see it how they see it.. We all know the only person whose sight really matters is Jerry's. Pointing out that the cap will go down this year is being overly simplistic. Nobody saw Covid coming.. if in 2019 someone had said "there will be a disease in 2020 that will force teams to play in empty stadiums" I think most people would have agreed that the cap was going to go down because of the drop in revenue and no one would have argued it.

As for running the team on "I thinks".. every aspect of sports is an "I think." There are no guarantees of anything.. Like I said.. it's in the percentages. Nothing more, nothing less. We all know the cap is probably doing down in 2021 but we don't know how much. We also know that the NFL and the networks are going to do everything in their power to make sure it's a one time deal. And once the NFL starts shopping games out to streaming services and taps into that worldwide audience, it's gonna be on an poppin. I believe we will see a 50 million dollar a year player by 2025. And it won't even be a big deal.

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When Dak beat bad teams and not good teams it wasn't an issue. People said "it's a team game".

Lots of teams have high paid quarterbacks and continue to be successful. And this idea that some "professional eyeball testers" have that if JJ pays him $37mil instead of $35mil is going to wreck the team is absolutely ridiculous.

Cowboy Lover said:

When Dak beat bad teams and not good teams it wasn't an issue. People said "it's a team game".

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When a QB beats a bad team and not good teams it wasn't an issue. People said "it's a team game".

ondaedg said:

Lots of teams have high paid quarterbacks and continue to be successful. And this idea that some "professional eyeball testers" have that if JJ pays him $37mil instead of $35mil is going to wreck the team is absolutely ridiculous.

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True enough.. but those teams are built solidly. Unfortunately this team as currently constructed is NOT built solidly. Whether it be draft misses, guys underperforming, injuries or even bad coaching. This team has a ton of flaws. However the notion that the path to fixing that is hitting the reset button at the hardest position to fill in all of sports is insane to me. It's like replacing the engine on your car because there's some body rust. The engine runs fine, in fact it runs better than all but a handful of engines on the race circuit, but let's get a new engine anyway. Let's not just replace a a couple of quarter panels, slap on some paint and maybe get a wheel alignment. Nope... replace the engine. Then all the rest of that stuff won't matter.. because the car will never leave the pits.

ondaedg said:

Lots of teams have high paid quarterbacks and continue to be successful. And this idea that some "professional eyeball testers" have that if JJ pays him $37mil instead of $35mil is going to wreck the team is absolutely ridiculous.

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DAL doesn’t have 35 MIL today and if they dumped the 20 UFA scrubs for this year they would barely have the 37.5 MIL to just pay him for the tag. LOL. And then they have to find more money to re resign the scrubs to get a complete roster. DAL simply is out of money and has major issues as an aside to the Tak fustercluck.

RonnieT24 said:

True enough.. but those teams are built solidly. Unfortunately this team as currently constructed is NOT built solidly. Whether it be draft misses, guys underperforming, injuries or even bad coaching. This team has a ton of flaws. However the notion that the path to fixing that is hitting the reset button at the hardest position to fill in all of sports is insane to me. It's like replacing the engine on your car because there's some body rust. The engine runs fine, in fact it runs better than all but a handful of engines on the race circuit, but let's get a new engine anyway. Let's not just replace a a couple of quarter panels, slap on some paint and maybe get a wheel alignment. Nope... replace the engine. Then all the rest of that stuff won't matter.. because the car will never leave the pits.

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The Cowboys have the engine if they want a broke part.

But not at the new price of the engine that they should pay...and if they pay too much for that used engine, you're car won't leave the pits...or drive to see a SB.

ShaneFalco said:

DAL doesn’t have 35 MIL today and if they dumped the 20 UFA scrubs for this year they would barely have the 37.5 MIL to just pay him for the tag. LOL. And then they have to find more money to re resign the scrubs to get a complete roster. DAL simply is out of money and has major issues as an aside to the Tak fustercluck.

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We don't know the 2021 salary cap. Cowboys could have up to $50 million in cap space depending on how the league decides to handle it.

5Stars said:

The Cowboys have the engine if they want a broke part.

But not at the new price of the engine that they should pay...and if they pay too much for that used engine, you're car won't leave the pits...or drive to see a SB.

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If you are of the mind that Dak is not a good QB then I understand your position. I believe you're wrong but you're obviously entitled to it. Dak is just entering QB prime. He's just about to reach that confluence of physical skill and intellectual understanding of the game. People holding onto "well he lost three in a row in 2017 without Zeke" but they never mention that he won three in a row in 2017 after that. Sure he struggled at times last year.. and maybe he was going to struggle at some point this year.. but what we were seeing was good.. well better than good.. it was great.. all time great..

So it boils down to 2018 Dak was better than 2017 Dak and 2019 Dak was better than 2018 Dak and 2020 Dak was better than 2019 Dak.. The question now is will 2021 Dak be better than 2020 Dak? It seems ridiculous to assume he won't. But again.. every man is entitled to his own opinion.. but don't base a 2021 decision on a three game stretch in 2017 or a game played with a bum shoulder and a bum hand and no practice in 2019. The last time we saw Dak he was playing at an elite level. That's what should shape our evaluation of him.

In his last 8 starts he led the offense to 40 or more points three times and 30+ points 6 times. They topped 500 yards of offense in 4 of those 8 games. Declaring THAT to be the problem that's holding this team back from winning is ludicrous.. I'm sorry. Play a LITTLE bit of defense and let's see how things work out. I KNOW I have a great offense with Dak at the helm. I am HOPING that by not signing him we can magically morph into a great defensive team. I am more in line with keeping the good stuff I got and trying to fix what's broken as opposed to breaking something else. But that's just me..

Batman1980 said:

Just hand the man a blank check, jeez. I'm one of Dak's biggest fans but even I don't want him making more than $36 million a year. They really should have gotten his deal done before Goff, Wentz, Mahomes and Watson reset the market.

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cowboys messed up. I’m no cap guru but I did hear that signing dak to long term deal doesn’t mean we will lose 36-40 mil off our cap next year. It would
Be a lot less. Now having him on the tag again I believe we will lose its entirety off our cap. Again don’t quote me on this. I may be wrong. My point is Dallas has not been smart about dak situation.

RonnieT24 said:

Which will have meaning when they go to a 1 on 1 tournament.. While they're still playing 46 on 46 on game days the wins thing is horse bleep. Until someone can name me a QB who has won anything with a defense giving up over 30 ppg I am going to continue to tell yall where yall can stick the "wins" argument. Back when the defense was at least serviceable Dak won considerably more games than he lost. Now that it has devolved into hot dawg poop he has started losing more. To the surprise of absolutely no one. Dak's QBr of 78.4 this year would have ranked him 5th this year. His 99.6 passer rating would have been 10th. His 68% completion rate would have tied Rivers for 8th. He was on pace to throw 35 TDs which would have landed him tied for 6th. We all know the yardage pace he was on would have set an NFL record so I won't even bother to elaborate on that. His yards per attempt of 8.4 would rank second. His net yards per attempt would rank #1. Dak was more than holding up his end of the bargain this season. Bottom line is Dak ranked in the top 10 in pretty much every meaningful category for QBs this year.. It's lunacy to blame him because the defense gave up the lead he got us at the end of the Seattle game and allowed teams to run the ball up and down the field on us. And DGMS on Moore's idiotic red zone play calling.

All that said, I go back to the same thing .. If I was talking to Dak I would advise him as follows: Sign a long term deal or leave town.. Period. You want to be a Cowboy, the Cowboys want you.. neither side wants a team that sucks for the next 5 years.. so if you're going to ask for 15% of the cap understand the responsibility that comes with that and do the team a solid. You know they will take care of you on the back end.. Now get the damn thing done..

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It's like QB's play Ping Pong against each other and the rest of the team doesn't exist.
And the stupid, stupid responses to your post?
Let them be relegated to Ping Pong game analysis.
They ignore the Game's intricacies.

ShaneFalco said:

LOL. DAL has 27 MIL. You can’t find a penny more. Cause there is no more. Tak is gone. His agent doesn’t need or care to listen to tall tales about redoing contracts in 2 years. They want their money and they know all they have to do is just say, “nope” to the cheesedick offers and just wait. Either way Tak gets paid big. Tak wants his money. It’s the Cousins method and it works. His brother Dot is out there speaking on his behalf. They know DAL can’t do it. So, now like clockwork they are going to start the PR war and make their case to be traded or released. Either way, Tak gets paid. Big.

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You are being intentionally dumb.
Boy... I don't want to put you on ignore.

5Stars said:

Except wins.

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He’s still top 5 in quarterback wins since the year he was drafted though.

ShaneFalco said:

DAL doesn’t have 35 MIL today and if they dumped the 20 UFA scrubs for this year they would barely have the 37.5 MIL to just pay him for the tag. LOL. And then they have to find more money to re resign the scrubs to get a complete roster. DAL simply is out of money and has major issues as an aside to the Tak fustercluck.

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They just paid Dak $31mil. Are you saying they can't scrape up another $6? I don't think your cap calcs are correct.

Vandyr said:

I've love to see those rankings. I'm assuming you have them handy, since you're quoting them as fact.

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Ranked top 5 in Passes over 20+ yards and accuracy of all throws 5+ yards
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-32-nfl-quarterbacks-deep-passing

“In 2019, Dak Prescott was the second-most accurate quarterback in the NFL. He was the second-most accurate quarterback on third downs and the most accurate quarterback in the NFL on third-and-long. He was also the most accurate passer on straight dropbacks.”
https://heavy.com/sports/2020/06/cowboys-dak-prescott-qb-power-rankings-update/amp/

Outside of Mahomes, Wilson, and Rodgers there is no quarterback in the NFL that is better at the art of throwing the football than Dak Prescott.

Since late 2018 He’s become a very well rounded quarterback. I remember watching in 2016 and 2017 when he’d only stare at one side of the field for and entire game and couldn’t hit outside the hashes well.

Now he can consistently make all the throws, makes smart quick reads, and can read a defense quite well.

BobbyFlame469 said:

Ranked top 5 in Passes over 20+ yards and accuracy of all throws 5+ yards
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-32-nfl-quarterbacks-deep-passing

“In 2019, Dak Prescott was the second-most accurate quarterback in the NFL. He was the second-most accurate quarterback on third downs and the most accurate quarterback in the NFL on third-and-long. He was also the most accurate passer on straight dropbacks.”
https://heavy.com/sports/2020/06/cowboys-dak-prescott-qb-power-rankings-update/amp/

Outside of Mahomes, Wilson, and Rodgers there is no quarterback in the NFL that is better at the art of throwing the football than Dak Prescott.

Since late 2018 He’s become a very well rounded quarterback. I remember watching in 2016 and 2017 when he’d only stare at one side of the field for and entire game and couldn’t hit outside the hashes well.

Now he can consistently make all the throws, makes smart quick reads, and can read a defense quite well.

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And he's top 5 all-time in TD:Int ratio.

ondaedg said:

They just paid Dak $31mil. Are you saying they can't scrape up another $6? I don't think your cap calcs are correct.

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So tag Tak again. OK. Now we’re getting somewhere. All I see is DAL is going to just give him the deal he wants but I really don’t see it and nobody is seeing the cap go up either. That sucks but it’s becoming more and more apparent. I can see them cutting a lot of the 20 UFA agents and bringing in some really bad talent to make it to 37.5. That means even worse scrubs being brought in if that’s even possible and no other FAs. Basically this current team only worse with new draft picks. I just think folks need to temper expectations. DAL is already really tight.

ShortRound131 said:

Jerry's going to cave isn't he...

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Oh no Dak, JJ just unleashed the curse on you.

BobbyFlame469 said:

Ranked top 5 in Passes over 20+ yards and accuracy of all throws 5+ yards
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-32-nfl-quarterbacks-deep-passing

“In 2019, Dak Prescott was the second-most accurate quarterback in the NFL. He was the second-most accurate quarterback on third downs and the most accurate quarterback in the NFL on third-and-long. He was also the most accurate passer on straight dropbacks.”
https://heavy.com/sports/2020/06/cowboys-dak-prescott-qb-power-rankings-update/amp/

Outside of Mahomes, Wilson, and Rodgers there is no quarterback in the NFL that is better at the art of throwing the football than Dak Prescott.

Since late 2018 He’s become a very well rounded quarterback. I remember watching in 2016 and 2017 when he’d only stare at one side of the field for and entire game and couldn’t hit outside the hashes well.

Now he can consistently make all the throws, makes smart quick reads, and can read a defense quite well.

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That amazing improvement is what has me excited about the next 5-6 years with Dak. He has leapfrogged so many of the "better pure passer" guys it aint even funny and he is still ascending. What he did in those games early this year.. Pulling this team up from 20+ point deficits more than once was what made me sit up and take notice. I admit I used to pretty much tune out when we got behind by two scores after watching us flail around in the Green Bay, Buffalo and Bears games last year. It just seemed like once this team got down they simply could not right themselves at all. But this year we saw multiple occasions where Dak made 20+ point deficits look like a momentary interruption. It wasn't just that he did it.. but it was HOW he did it.. With the pass rush ignoring the run game and the pocket collapsing all around him dude just stood in there and delivered strikes. First when he did it against the Falcons I thought it was a fluke just like everybody else. Then he did it to the Seahawks (before the defense gave the lead right back) then he did it to the Browns, before the defense bent over for Beckham.. and then he did it to the Giants before he got hurt. Dude had a look in his eyes in those games that I don't recall seeing on a Cowboys QB since Troy had it in that 1994 NFC Championship game.. That stretch made a believer of me. I have always liked Dak but always acknowledged that he had some limitations and needed to take that next step to be the QB we needed him to be.. He took that step in my eyes this year.. So to me it's a no brainer. Sign the man, work with him to fashion a deal that helps with the cap.. and lets go win the damn thing..