PFF thoughts on free agent safeties of note:
S Anthony Harris
Anthony Harris has been one of the best safeties in football for the past few seasons, steadily earning himself increased playing time in Minnesota. He put together an All-Pro caliber season in 2019 before taking a step back this year along with the rest of the Vikings’ defense. Harris earned a 91.1 overall PFF grade a season ago, which came hot on the heels of the 89.0 mark he posted the year before that when he played 624 snaps and started half the season due to injury. He has been a perfect free safety within Mike Zimmer’s defense, which employs a lot of split-safety looks and has been particularly adept at making plays on the football, with coverage being by far his biggest asset.
Harris has shown the ability to read route concepts and quarterbacks at the same time, putting himself in position to make plays. He should be primed for a big deal.
Minnesota has a huge decision to make at safety, with the anchor of their defense in
Harrison Smith entering the final year of his deal in 2021, as well. Harris’ emergence opposite Smith has been a welcome development, and although he’s the younger player, it’s hard to imagine the Vikings letting Smith play a single snap outside of Minnesota before his potentially Hall of Fame career is over.
Prediction: Football Team signs Harris for four years, $60 million ($15M APY): $30 million total guaranteed, $18 million fully guaranteed at signing.
S Justin Simmons
After a few solid seasons to begin his career, Justin Simmons has blossomed into one of the game’s best safeties. Simmons had a 90.7 overall PFF grade in 2019, with four picks and 11 pass breakups to his name. He was a rare free safety who was also extremely active against the run and in the box, notching 28 defensive stops over the season. So far this year, he hasn’t quite backed up that phenomenal performance, but has a better grade than in any of his previous NFL campaigns, proving that last year wasn’t a complete outlier.
Simmons has not only the range to impact plays in coverage, but he also possesses the ability to read and diagnose plays quickly enough to support against the run or on shorter passes over the middle in a way a lot of free safeties simply don’t.
Contract Analysis: Vic Fangio coached Bears safety
Eddie Jackson into the biggest safety contract in the NFL at the time of signing, and the same thing could happen with Simmons this offseason.
Prediction: Broncos sign Simmons for five years, $82.5 million ($16.5M APY). $45 million total guaranteed, $22.5 million fully guaranteed at signing.
S Marcus Williams
Since entering the league in 2017, Williams has ranked near the top of the league in every significant category for safeties. He has a coverage grade that ranks in the 90th percentile to go with the second-highest rate of forced incompletions. Williams is also a solid run defender and with the skills to fit as a free safety in any scheme.
Williams is infamous for the Minneapolis Miracle, which is a shame because he’s been a great player for the Saints on the back end. New Orleans brought their 2009 first-round pick, Malcolm Jenkins, back to the bayou this offseason, which could be a sign of them preparing ahead of time for the departure of Williams.
Prediction: Jaguars sign Williams for four-years, $52M ($13M APY). $25M total guaranteed, $16M fully guaranteed at signing.
S John Johnson III
Johnson has fallen off the free-agent radar a bit after an injury-plagued 2019 season, but make no mistake, he’s an elite safety when healthy. His greatest contribution is also the most important one, as he’s a truly dominant cover safety when called upon. His 85.1 coverage grade through Week 12 would be his third in four seasons at or above 84.9 if it held up through the end of the campaign.
Now that new Rams DC Brandon Staley has gotten his defensive identity established, Johnson is on a tear to close his contract year. Since Week 7, Johnson is PFF’s second-highest-graded safety, with a 90.2 defensive grade.
The Rams have signaled rather strongly that although Johnson is a special player, they know they can’t afford to keep him around long-term. L.A. drafted two safeties in this year’s draft, both capable of playing free or strong safety, just like Johnson. Third-round pick
Terrell Burgess primarily played strong safety at Utah opposite
Indianapolis Colts rookie standout
Julian Blackmon, but he has experience at both spots. And the Rams’ sixth-round pick out of Ohio State, safety
Jordan Fuller, has also spent time at both spots. These picks are in addition to 2019 second-round pick
Taylor Rapp, yet another versatile safety who can play down in the box or covering the deep-third if necessary. Long story short, the writing may be on the wall for a cap-strapped Rams team.
Prediction: Rams sign Johnson for four years, $50M ($12.5M APY): $24M total guaranteed, $15.5M fully guaranteed at signing.
S Marcus Maye
Maye has played multiple roles for the
New York Jets defense since entering the league in 2017, including lining up for at least 400 snaps at free safety, 200 snaps in the box and 125 snaps at slot corner in each of the last two seasons.
Maye played a more traditional free safety role when the Jets had
Jamal Adams on the roster, but he’s even stepped into an Adams-caliber versatile role this season. He can make plays at the catch point, ranking among the league’s best at breaking up passes when targeted, and he’s been solid against the run. Maye does his best work as a traditional free safety, capable of playing both single- and two-high looks, though he is versatile enough to line up all over the defense, making him one of the most coveted safeties on the market.
The Jets shipped Adams off to the
Seattle Seahawks for multiple first-round picks, and the play of Marcus Maye was a big reason why they felt comfortable doing so. Maye doesn’t have the ceiling Adams has, but he’s a similarly versatile and talented player, logging snaps all over the defense.
Prediction: Jets sign Maye for four-years, $55M ($13.75M APY): $28M total guaranteed, $18M fully guaranteed at signing.
Xavier Woods
Woods entered the league as a versatile safety with slot coverage skills and a sixth-round draft steal as he’s developed into a solid free safety. He ranks in the middle of the pack from a coverage standpoint when lined up deep, but he’s been excellent when lined up closer to the line of scrimmage, making him a good fit for teams that play with interchangeable safeties. He can still dabble in the slot at times, and the Cowboys are doing more of that in 2020, but it hasn’t been Woods’ strong suit to this point in his NFL career.
This much talent at one position could have the effect of suppressing contracts for everyone. Or, particularly because of the salary cap situation in 2021, it could have the effect of eroding the middle-tier market. Teams may decide that unless they can land a premier free safety who is an impact player, they might as well just go to the bargain bin and sign a cheap veteran. For this reason, Woods’ next contract could truly fall within a very wide spectrum.
Prediction: Cowboys sign Woods to four-year, $25 million extension ($6.25M APY).