Blitzen
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Let's say that you trade player "A". You as GM feel confident that the team can likely win 6 of 10 final games with player A and will likely make the playoffs. You also feel certain that player A will unlikely (somewhere beyond 99 percent) be able to win against the other playoff teams. You feel this team might be able to have a more reasonable 50 percent chance at defeating these other playoff teams with extensive changes to the roster in the following offseasons (say 12-16 moves to the first team offense and defense combined).
You do an extensive analysis of different methods to acquire these other pieces and realize the likelihood of acquiring the necessary pieces is extremely small when combined with likely player A longevity (injury potential) along with the rest of the active roster while accumulating these assets.
You come to the conclusion that the team will likely fall short of the ultimate goal of winning the super bowl (98 to 99 percentage certainty) in the next 5-6 years, but have a 98 to 99 percent chance of winning the division and/or making the playoffs in 2 thirds of the same seasons.
Would it then be tanking/quitting to trade player A and any other player to acquire draft capital, when there is a 98 to 99 percent chance of not winning the division for the next 5 seasons if you do this?
BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WHY?
You do an extensive analysis of different methods to acquire these other pieces and realize the likelihood of acquiring the necessary pieces is extremely small when combined with likely player A longevity (injury potential) along with the rest of the active roster while accumulating these assets.
You come to the conclusion that the team will likely fall short of the ultimate goal of winning the super bowl (98 to 99 percentage certainty) in the next 5-6 years, but have a 98 to 99 percent chance of winning the division and/or making the playoffs in 2 thirds of the same seasons.
Would it then be tanking/quitting to trade player A and any other player to acquire draft capital, when there is a 98 to 99 percent chance of not winning the division for the next 5 seasons if you do this?
BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WHY?