What are your minimum expectations for 2021 season right now?

CowboysFaninHouston

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I remember our previous discussions and the respect you showed of my opinion and now it shows through again and I appreciate it.
My concern is accomplishing the end game based on money spent.
By that I mean if a team can accomplish the same wins and losses with a QB on a first contract or a journeyman or game manager type at a fraction of the cost, then what is the basis for paying a guy much more when you know he does not possess the talent to overcome the team defensive deficiencies?

Can Cam or Jameis at 10 million per not accomplish the same 7 to 9 wins that this team ultimately has and always ends up achieving regardless of year, coach or defense?

Are Daks numbers against good teams in contrast to against bad such a quantum physics question as to not see that there are serious struggles against .500 and above opponents?

I've got another guy now talking his Jones version of relevance and how long a rebuild would take if using a first contract kid or recently released former starter.

My only good answer is to somehow try and recapture the OL dominance and offensive philosophy of 2016. It's the only formula I've seen with at least a level of noticeable "regular season" success.

The problem is that Zeke no longer exists. That oline no longer exists.
I do not have blind faith in Smith's and Collins full recoveries and return to former form from surgery lasting a full year.

I like the 2016 model. It's the same as what Tennessee is doing with Tannehill and Henry.

I do not have to mention defense to you because I share all of your exact opinions on this team's inability to field an effective defensive roster.

I just believe a smash mouth TOP heavy offense that keeps the personnel lacking defense off the field is the best overall path to success for this team.

I do not believe this QB has all of a sudden morphed into a Big 12 high volume pass happy guy compared to what he was as that 2016 efficient game manager who took his shots but relied on his oline and running game.

I don't see myself being convinced otherwise either.

My difference is based entirely on how the end game is arrived at. And if I can save a hundred million dollars and continue to draft and develop HOF level 1st rd olinemen, there is a very miniscule fighters chance at success.

If 1st round o linemen begin to not be drafted and developed, the current downward trajectory of this team will continue imo.

Because as you and I have agreed, they just do not know how to draft and develop a defensive roster. Until this scouting or coaching mystery can be figured out there is no reason to pay elite prices for mediocre overall team success, ie wins.
same respect back at you. I don't mind exchange of ideas, being open and discuss in a friendly manner. differeing opinions are what they are...although some on either side of this debate tend to be more emotional about their views than necessary.

also, you can't look at Dak's numbers against good teams in a vaccum which is what a lot of people who don't want dak do. how does he compare to the rest of the league and other QBs. people mentioned his record against winning teams, yet, there are three QBs that have winning record against winning teams, Brady wilson and Mahomes. so any of these stats in a vaccum is meaningless. it has to be compared to the rest of the league. and again, I don't blame dak for wins and losses. I think he gives us the best chance to win, allow the offense to be better and give the team a chance.

most NFL games go into the 4th quarter within a score or so.....and those who manage the game well have a chance in the end to win it....I don't think our previous coaching staff and to an extent the current staff has done a very good job of that.

so I go back to what you said before and here in the begining, its about managing the cap. and its been proven over and over that its the easiest path to a superbow if you have a franchise QB. its hard to do it in the first 5 years, unless you hit on the right one. everyone wants to point to Mahomes and wining it in his first contract, but facts are 4 out of 5 first round QBs fail and are average in the NFL, more of them in 2nd round and lower. so just like any other investment, its about where you invest how much to get returns you want.

is it possible to win it with Winston and get to 7-9? I say no. Tampa had a good defense, it was Winston that held them back. Winston in Dallas would translate to 4-12. same with Cam at this stage of his career. NE defense lacked last year, and even with the great Bilicheck (he is a huge factor), they didn't do so well. so simply put, no, it can't be done with average QBs, unless you have an all time defense like the ravens, that keeps the other team at about 14 points average.

now, similar to your comment about winning with a QB on his rookie contract, same can be said about defensive players. all FAs worth anything are going to be over paid by a few million. the rest are injury prone, older, head cases, so I am totally against building a defense through FA, even if we had a minimum salary QB. because with a below average QB like Dalton, Winston or Cam you need a great defense to compensate, and to have a great defense you need several high level highly paid player and they all will be over paid and its not enough cap room to do. you can find the right mid level FAs but then you end up with an average defense.....so back to square one.

and it was obvious last year, once Dak went down, zeke suffered. teams simplified their defense and loaded to stop running game putting the game in Dalton's hand knowing he was not able to get it done.

our problem has been we don't draft well defensively. I have been saying that for several months now. 15 years. 43 picks. we only have one impact player of Note, namely Lawrence. if we don't draft well defensively, it doesn't matter how much cap room we get, there isn't enough top end FAs that can help this defense.....we need to find some good impact defensive players in draft, and use them to have a good defense for the nextg 4,5 years to have a chance at making a run.
 

catiii

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In 2019 8 "team" wins were achieved.

6 of those 8 wins came against 3 win Washington(2), Detroit and Miami teams and a 4 win New York Giant team(2).

The 2020 team defensive rankings compared to the 2019 team defense makes the 2019 defense look like the '85 Bears in comparison.

The injuries to the 2020 Cowboys Mash unit offensive line in no shape or form was like 2019 in which most, if not all snaps were taken by incumbent starters.

The TD to Int ratio based on opponents played that year reveals a night and day contrast.

The correlation between such a drastic drop off in tds to ints and the level of competition can not be ignored.

In 2019 one QB took all the snaps with mostly all of its offensive line starters healthy.

It is no more plain to see than that.

You do not pay a person who takes every single snap whose primary responsibility is leading his offense to TDs $125 million dollars in guarantees after having a 9-11 record as a starter in his last 20 games and whose signature wins are over a 2019 one and done 9-7 Eagle playoff team and a 9-7 non Playoff Ram team. Why not just pay Cam 10 million or Winston 10 million or Dalton again but with healthy starters in order to achieve the same win totals?
What is the logic?

And the QB himself coming off season ending surgery along with both his tackles missing the whole previous year to sEason long surgeries as well...?

There is no logic to this. There IS a reason QBs are paid the Lions share of the entire team's cap. They hold a much higher responsibility/accountability to overall wins and losses. But in this scenario and for all the reasons mentioned, ya just don't pay him like that.
Not THAT contract.

But yeah,
It's the Dak, the Dak, the Dak as has been clearly explained here and not the team, the team, the team.

He is accountable. Period. And that contract was a mistake based on his individual inability to beat any decent team with a pulse on defense. And ain't nothing changed.

My "team" expectations? As stated earlier,. Beat 2 decent teams outside of the division with average to above defenses. Surely the QB of this caliber and leader of this offense with all these weapons can lead a win in a couple of shootouts regardless of his own defense right? I mean regardless of defensive opponent he faces.

I mean scoring shouldn't be the problem right? That's why he's being paid the big bucks, right?
:hammer:
 

JoeKing

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I expect Dak to pick up where he left off in 2020, on pace to set a new single-season passing record. We already have all the weapons he needs to do it. But if the Cowboys get Kyle Pitts in the draft, that record is going to get shattered.
 

75boyz

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same respect back at you. I don't mind exchange of ideas, being open and discuss in a friendly manner. differeing opinions are what they are...although some on either side of this debate tend to be more emotional about their views than necessary.

also, you can't look at Dak's numbers against good teams in a vaccum which is what a lot of people who don't want dak do. how does he compare to the rest of the league and other QBs. people mentioned his record against winning teams, yet, there are three QBs that have winning record against winning teams, Brady wilson and Mahomes. so any of these stats in a vaccum is meaningless. it has to be compared to the rest of the league. and again, I don't blame dak for wins and losses. I think he gives us the best chance to win, allow the offense to be better and give the team a chance.

most NFL games go into the 4th quarter within a score or so.....and those who manage the game well have a chance in the end to win it....I don't think our previous coaching staff and to an extent the current staff has done a very good job of that.

so I go back to what you said before and here in the begining, its about managing the cap. and its been proven over and over that its the easiest path to a superbow if you have a franchise QB. its hard to do it in the first 5 years, unless you hit on the right one. everyone wants to point to Mahomes and wining it in his first contract, but facts are 4 out of 5 first round QBs fail and are average in the NFL, more of them in 2nd round and lower. so just like any other investment, its about where you invest how much to get returns you want.

is it possible to win it with Winston and get to 7-9? I say no. Tampa had a good defense, it was Winston that held them back. Winston in Dallas would translate to 4-12. same with Cam at this stage of his career. NE defense lacked last year, and even with the great Bilicheck (he is a huge factor), they didn't do so well. so simply put, no, it can't be done with average QBs, unless you have an all time defense like the ravens, that keeps the other team at about 14 points average.

now, similar to your comment about winning with a QB on his rookie contract, same can be said about defensive players. all FAs worth anything are going to be over paid by a few million. the rest are injury prone, older, head cases, so I am totally against building a defense through FA, even if we had a minimum salary QB. because with a below average QB like Dalton, Winston or Cam you need a great defense to compensate, and to have a great defense you need several high level highly paid player and they all will be over paid and its not enough cap room to do. you can find the right mid level FAs but then you end up with an average defense.....so back to square one.

and it was obvious last year, once Dak went down, zeke suffered. teams simplified their defense and loaded to stop running game putting the game in Dalton's hand knowing he was not able to get it done.

our problem has been we don't draft well defensively. I have been saying that for several months now. 15 years. 43 picks. we only have one impact player of Note, namely Lawrence. if we don't draft well defensively, it doesn't matter how much cap room we get, there isn't enough top end FAs that can help this defense.....we need to find some good impact defensive players in draft, and use them to have a good defense for the nextg 4,5 years to have a chance at making a run.

Although our QB evaluation prescription lenses differ greatly on a perceived Dak ceiling and overall elite status/ability to carry a team,
its still cool to discuss differences in a civil manner.

I have told you in past comments regarding the failures of the FO to effectively select and develop defense for years as well in which my opinion matched your own. We are in total agreement there.
Appreciate the civil discussion.
 

Adreme

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Here is an interesting crutch dilemma to consider...
Why is it that the quarterback position is the highest paid position on 95 % of all NFL teams?
Why is it that the QB is the so called face of the vast majority of all these teams?
Why is it that the saying that a QB shares in too much blame for losses and too much credit in victories?
So going by your stated logic, NFL guards are just as deserving as starting quarterbacks and thus deserving of equal part of the cap pie as well?
Do the remaining 51 players team contributions also merit an equal portion of this team salary cap as the starting QB as well?
Is there such a thing as elite QBs and game managers who need more support in order to perform as elite ones?

At what point does the Quarterback's responsibility to overall wins and losses begin and end or is it as you have described an equal 53rd share?
Man, these owners sure are overpaying all these game managers...


AND are you really gonna take an honest look at 2019, go game by game and demonstrate the already well known numbers of offensive blowouts against scrub opponents and near offensive no shows against .500 and above opponents? Seriously?

Just maybe the whole team crutch phenomena you refer to has about 31 other team owners who evaluate the QB position as possibly a little more responsible than their guards contributions and the corresponding paychecks to those QBs demonstrate as such.

But yeah.
All QBs are equal. They are no more important than any other player on the team and should not be paid as such.
There are no tiers of elite and game manager type QBs.

Why did Winston and Marotta get fired? Goff traded? Wentz traded?

That's right, all because of their defenses
And they personally were not held responsible for team wins and losses based on their paychecks given either.

Glad you set me straight on how the whole QB pay and team responsibility crutch scenario works throughout the NFL.

Sure appreciate the insight.

What you just did is an example of a strawman argument because that is not the position I took. I did not say the QB does not matter nor did I say all QBs are equal, but I guess it is easier to argue strawmen then the actual thing I was arguing.

However, let us look at your point and work based on the logic you gave (QB is highest paid position so he matters most). You are correct that the QB is the highest paid position, and the most important one, but they are not the only position that matters. You have defensive players making 20+ million a year. So effectively a QB is worth 2 of them because you cannot win without one. Basically there are about 15 franchise, super-bowl caliber, QBs in the NFL and if you have one then you are legit contender, but if you do not then you simply are not. The Cowboys have one, but they have pretty much nothing else. The OLine is oft injured and aging, the TE group is non existent, and there is not a single unit on the defense (DLIne, LBs, Secondary) that I would even rate as average. That is too much scrub. If you want to compete in the NFL you need to nail your drafts and the Cowboys have not. When I look at the teams that are competitive it is often because they have both a solid core of paid players, which in the Cowboys case half their 2nd contracts are looking bad, and a solid draft class from your 2nd 3rd and 4th year players, and drafts 2017-2019 were just terrible for the Cowboys.
 

75boyz

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What you just did is an example of a strawman argument because that is not the position I took. I did not say the QB does not matter nor did I say all QBs are equal, but I guess it is easier to argue strawmen then the actual thing I was arguing.

However, let us look at your point and work based on the logic you gave (QB is highest paid position so he matters most). You are correct that the QB is the highest paid position, and the most important one, but they are not the only position that matters. You have defensive players making 20+ million a year. So effectively a QB is worth 2 of them because you cannot win without one. Basically there are about 15 franchise, super-bowl caliber, QBs in the NFL and if you have one then you are legit contender, but if you do not then you simply are not. The Cowboys have one, but they have pretty much nothing else. The OLine is oft injured and aging, the TE group is non existent, and there is not a single unit on the defense (DLIne, LBs, Secondary) that I would even rate as average. That is too much scrub. If you want to compete in the NFL you need to nail your drafts and the Cowboys have not. When I look at the teams that are competitive it is often because they have both a solid core of paid players, which in the Cowboys case half their 2nd contracts are looking bad, and a solid draft class from your 2nd 3rd and 4th year players, and drafts 2017-2019 were just terrible for the Cowboys.

Fair enough. Share some of the views on defensive roles but there exists a hierarchy infrastructure and sliding pay scale there as well. I realize there's a DE1 and CB1 with high end salaries that on most teams command a high contract as well. But...none near so large as the contracts awarded the QB1. My so called straw man opinion explained that in detail with ample support.
Difference in opinion of this QB's overall talent level, the reasoning/reward for how he was given this contract and ability to carry the offense If not supported by an all star cast. No big deal.
Opinions vary.
 

DandyDon52

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I remember our previous discussions and the respect you showed of my opinion and now it shows through again and I appreciate it.
My concern is accomplishing the end game based on money spent.
By that I mean if a team can accomplish the same wins and losses with a QB on a first contract or a journeyman or game manager type at a fraction of the cost, then what is the basis for paying a guy much more when you know he does not possess the talent to overcome the team defensive deficiencies?

Can Cam or Jameis at 10 million per not accomplish the same 7 to 9 wins that this team ultimately has and always ends up achieving regardless of year, coach or defense?

Are Daks numbers against good teams in contrast to against bad such a quantum physics question as to not see that there are serious struggles against .500 and above opponents?

I've got another guy now talking his Jones version of relevance and how long a rebuild would take if using a first contract kid or recently released former starter.

My only good answer is to somehow try and recapture the OL dominance and offensive philosophy of 2016. It's the only formula I've seen with at least a level of noticeable "regular season" success.

The problem is that Zeke no longer exists. That oline no longer exists.
I do not have blind faith in Smith's and Collins full recoveries and return to former form from surgery lasting a full year.

I like the 2016 model. It's the same as what Tennessee is doing with Tannehill and Henry.

I do not have to mention defense to you because I share all of your exact opinions on this team's inability to field an effective defensive roster.

I just believe a smash mouth TOP heavy offense that keeps the personnel lacking defense off the field is the best overall path to success for this team.

I do not believe this QB has all of a sudden morphed into a Big 12 high volume pass happy guy compared to what he was as that 2016 efficient game manager who took his shots but relied on his oline and running game.

I don't see myself being convinced otherwise either.

My difference is based entirely on how the end game is arrived at. And if I can save a hundred million dollars and continue to draft and develop HOF level 1st rd olinemen, there is a very miniscule fighters chance at success.

If 1st round o linemen begin to not be drafted and developed, the current downward trajectory of this team will continue imo.

Because as you and I have agreed, they just do not know how to draft and develop a defensive roster. Until this scouting or coaching mystery can be figured out there is no reason to pay elite prices for mediocre overall team success, ie wins.
they cant and wont go back to the run
heavy offense of 14 and 16.
kellen is the wrong OC for a strong run game lol.
They are going to pass a lot, and run occasionally, and nothing fancy just hand it off, and maybe he gets a hole or crack to run thru.
kellens run blocking schemes are awful, and partly to blame for ewok not doing much. add to that not calling runs at right times.

And as far as dak, he is hampered by bad OL , bad pass blocking schemes, and bad play calling, and no threat of a good run game.
To me coaches are our main problem, and will continue to be the main problem.

and I will add that paying dak or not , doesnt matter.
Had they not, I think jerry would have just brought in a wentz or goff.
jerry has had a big name qb since 2007, he likes that, and he isnt one to try
some unknown guy, and he wont ever be able to draft a top 5 qb.
so maybe we are better off with dak.

Keep in mind what we would do , and what jerry will do are always going to be
2 different things.
Time to face facts, jerry is committed to kellen, MM, Dak, ewok, jaylon etc, so it is what it is.
 
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75boyz

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they cant and wont go back to the run
heavy offense of 14 and 16.
kellen is the wrong OC for a strong run game lol.
They are going to pass a lot, and run occasionally, and nothing fancy just hand it off, and maybe he gets a hole or crack to run thru.
kellens run blocking schemes are awful, and partly to blame for ewok not doing much. add to that not calling runs at right times.

And as far as dak, he is hampered by bad OL , bad pass blocking schemes, and bad play calling, and no threat of a good run game.
To me coaches are our main problem, and will continue to be the main problem.

Agree with a lot of your points Dandy. Especially the coaching related ones. I am not a big fan of this staff.
 

DandyDon52

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Agree with a lot of your points Dandy. Especially the coaching related ones. I am not a big fan of this staff.
I just added some more to that last post too lol. u should read it.
that is how I see it so I am now a ho hum fan, because I dont see it getting better than occasional playoffs for next few years .
 

waving monkey

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Ok I know it is early, but I figure the draft will only give team 1 or 2 starters at most.
So what is the minimum season record you would accept as a step forward over last season?
I will say 10-7 , that would be a distinct improvement over last season.
Anything less I would have to consider a failure by coaches , FO , and players, and Dak.

Now 10-7 may get team into playoffs, and it may not, so I am not going to say they have to make playoffs,
but I do sort of expect that they should .
The thing is winning the division may be the only way a east team gets in playoffs, but one of the east teams
may have a good season, and do better than 10-7. You cant count on them being as bad as last season.

Dallas in 2020
AFC DIV 1-3
NFC DIV 1-3
SOS 2-0
DIV 2-4
________________
2021
AFC DIV 3-1
Denver Broncos H
Las Vegas Raiders H
Kansas City Chiefs Road
Los Angeles Chargers Road

NFC DIV 2-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Road
New Orleans Saints Road
Atlanta Falcons H
Carolina Panthers H


SOS GAMES 1-1

Minnesota Vikings Road
Arizona Cardinals H

NFCE GAMES 4-2

17th game 0-1 by this would put them at 10-7 , if 16 games then 10-6
Dallas would have to be real good team to do better than 10 wins.
I gave a loss on the last game as people here are saying it would be NE, and dallas has
always done poorly in the last game of season.
But that could be another win just as easily, if they are improved, so I could see 11 wins too.
So I will change that to 10 or 11 wins as my minimum expectation.

Anything over that would be more than I expect
And on further thought, I think making the playoffs , as WC or div champ has to be included, unless
one of the other east teams just has a great season, and dallas doesnt get in as WC.
10-11 wins should get dallas in as a WC though?
17 game season makes it easy 10-7
defense will be better but its 2022 I expect the defense to choke the opponents
 

75boyz

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I just added some more to that last post too lol. u should read it.
that is how I see it so I am now a ho hum fan, because I dont see it getting better than occasional playoffs for next few years .

Yep,
Just read your add ons as well. Like you said, what us fans think is best and what good old Grandpa Jerry does are usually exact opposites.
Oh well, such is life.
Good post.
 

HappyOnions

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They better win the division. That is the absolute lowest expectation I have for this team in 2021.

If they are healthy, they have no excuse for not making the playoffs.
 

DandyDon52

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fivetwos said:
Yeah well Jerry made a deal with the devil for SBXXX so there you have it........replace the B with an E and think about the party bus lol :D
 

ICP

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Lol, that they'll play 17 games. After the past 25 years I've learned not to expect anything.
 
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