Some good points here. BigMac took low round flyers on QBs in his time in Green Bay. Unfortunately that seems to be the exception.
But there are currently two prevailing theories on backup QBs. One comes from Tom Moore when he worked with Peyton Manning. When asked what he would do if 18 went down, he replied, "If 18 goes down, we're ***......and we don't practice ***." He went on to explain since he'd been with the Steelers in 1974, "Bradshaw took every rep." And that is common wisdom around the league. If the #1 goes down, the season is all but done.
Less common is the BDN theory, named after Nick Foles, the $5M dollar backup that took Philly to the Super Bowl. That theory posits if a team is willing to pay for a backup that can succeed under the constrained circumstances, they can succeed. This led to the Saints trading for Bridgewater and paying him to sit on the bench behind Brees. It also proved its worth when Bridgewater wen 5-0 in Brees absence.
However, the problem is teams do not commit $5M to a player whom they hope will never see the field. And that's compounded by the problem of finding a quality player willing to sit and more often a quality backup at all since there rarely seems to be enough competent starting QBs.
One study suggest the backup QB position consists of four type players:
The first round pick waiting to be a starter
The low round pick who has no chance of ever starting
A veteran who can be a starter
A veteran who was a starter and has no shot of being a starter again
The results of that study suggests if your backup isn't a first round pick, your best option is a veteran. At the moment is hard to determine, but as we get closer to the season, and rosters get pared down, we'll have a better idea which direction teams fall.
