Preseason garbage games are finally over and we’re just a little over a week from the beginning of finally getting some meaningful football.
So let’s look at our opponent on Sept 9th, the defending champ Buccaneers. Let’s look at their strengths, weaknesses, some intangibles and how we could pull off an upset.
TB STRENGTHS
- Front Office- Under GM Jason Licht, the Bucs became the first team in the NFL's salary cap era to have all 22 starters from their Super Bowl championship team re-signed or under contract for the upcoming season. Let that roll over you.
- QB- having the GOAT at QB is obviously an advantage. But I also think Father Time is closer to tapping on Tom B’s door. More on that later.
- Passing game- last year, the bucs were 3rd in total offense, mostly because of the passing game, where they were second only to the chiefs in total passing yards, and had a whopping 42 TDs passing.
- Receivers- Mike Evans is a load to cover. He had 70 receptions last year, which was actually below his average of 76 per season. But he had 13 TDs last year and is a nightmare to cover in the red zone because of his size. The once great Antonio Brown is not as good as he used to be but he’s still tough in the slot and Chris Godwin was a 2nd team All Pro in 2019, is underrated. Gronk is back at TE. We will have our hands full.
- OL- the Bucs resigned both of their starting Tackles to keep their entire OL in place from last year.
- LBs- Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett are two of the best LBs in the game, and the Bucs just re-signed them both to longer deals. Two time pro bowler Barrett had 4 sacks in the playoffs last year, and 3 time All Pro David is a monster.
- DL- Ndamukong Suh, William Goldston and Vita Vea make a pretty tough 3 man front. Along with their LBs, they racked up a ton of pressure during the playoffs last year, especially against Mahomes in SB.
WEAKNESSES
- Running Game- last year, the Bucs only averaged a little over 90 yards a game. Their running game improved after mid year when they acquired Leonard Fournette. But compared to their passing game, the running game isn’t great.
- Passing Defense/Secondary- believe it or not, the TB passing defense gave up more yards last year than the Cowboys! What saves them has been their ability to get pressure from their front 7.
- Brady when pressured- like any QB- even the GOAT- if you can at least make TB uncomfortable, he’s not nearly as effective. (Remember both giants SB wins against NE?)
- Brady’s arm- He’s still great, but at 43, Brady does not have the arm strength he once did. He can occasionally throw a good deep route but not as consistently as he once did.
KEYS TO AN UPSET (yes we can win this game if…)
- Win the TO battle- in every game TB lost last year, they lost the TO battle. Not rocket science, but we know how much it kills any team to turn it over multiple times.
- We need to score 27 or more. Last year, of the the Bucs 5 losses, they were 0-4 in games where they gave up 27 or more.
- Force some FGs- They averaged 30 points a game last year so if we can hold them to a bunch of FGs, we have chance. If the Bucs score 4 TDs or more last year, they were 12-1 including playoff games. Got to hold them to 3 TDs or less.
- Don’t fall two scores behind- especially early- their defense will kill you when they know you have to pass. If we can keep it close and get some TOs, and can stay with them, it forces them to play more honest with their D.
- Pressure Brady- if he has all day, we will get crushed.
So those are some thoughts on this big opening game. If we can score 27 or more, we have a chance.
What do yo think?
Just a couple quick things.
Fournette was brought in before the start of the season...and their run game was mediocre a good part of the year. They did get better as the year went on.
Age for Brady and Gronk...Gronk wasn't the player of year's past....and I think will be even less so this year. Brady wasn't great to start the year.....got called out twice by Arians in the first half of the year. So it is possible that they don't just pick up where they left off.
It is impressive that they were able to bring everyone back. That is hard to do in this era, because guys want to go where the $$$ and winning a SB is less important after you win one.
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One huge thing to remember especially about their defense is that while it had a great playoff run, everything fell perfectly for them. Washington had a terrible offense and was still able to hang in against the Buc defense. They had to start Taylor Heinicke. The Packers OL and the Chiefs OL's were decimated by injuries and were basically turnstiles. Wasn't this the game where Packers head coach whimped out and kicked a FG inside the 10 yard line and got blasted by pretty much everyone, including his QB? The Chiefs had no running game and Mahomes became a sitting duck....he even had a foot injury that hampered him to go with the porous OL. We are at least coming into this game with a healthy OL, and I think that will allow us to be decent against the pass rush and our receiving corps should be able to get open against their secondary.
So it does come down to winning the turnover battle, keeping it on the ground with success to run the clock, and the defense not just being a wet paper towel.
