How do you measure home field advantage?

RonWashington said:

I don’t about all that but from the looks of your list Dallas ranks 29th in “ home field “ advantage which sounds about right , Jerrahs living room offers up about as much passion as a shopping mall .

Now places like KC GB or even Pittsburgh are my definition of places that say your in enemy territory not the stadium off I - 30 in Arlington .

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i guess that statement somehow glossed over the fact that both SB teams were below us as the best AFC team the last 4 years below us ..next stupid statement goes below this post...

NEXT lmao fans here are NOT fans just take anything and make it negative..

i dont think the OP just grabbing his own mathematical equations and coming up with thread we can debate is not mean much in the real sports world..

why because TEAMS change a lot over 3-4 years turnover is more then it ever has and trying to use 10 years worth of data when team lets use Dallas whos now changed coaches and the roster was flipped especially on defense more then 60% of new players, new schemes...

.its lit the 25 years narratives being hung on current players and staffs..i dont put any stock in any of it..each year IS A ONE OFF imo
this is just entertainment for fan discussion boards is all it is..

For me it was at 75% or 6 out of 8 games won at home consistently.
I guess I'll just increase it by one for the year that there are 9 home games now. That's like 77.8%, lol

scottsp said:

Road performance, IMO, should have no bearing in the analysis. In no scenario would it be: T1 who’s 7-2 at home 8-0 road v T2 2-6 and 0-9, and team 2 is considered to have the better HFA.

Here, I’m seeing the Browns near the top then the 31st ranked Chiefs and my head explodes. Arrowhead’s impact doesn’t register in this methodology.

I’m thinking each team's HFW% should be weighed against the league aggregate to assess advantage. That’s more apples to apples to me.

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none of it matters games are played by humans , coached by humans, assembled by humans, and teams turnover players and staffs so often trying to use math to figure out what might happen this season is waste of brain matter. Sure it opens up entrainment for fans to discus but that about it..

most of the stadiums are gone that created true HFA, places like candlestick with bad turf and places that were generally abusive to visitors etc all gone really..both teams play in the same environment and fans being louder to mess up teams communications is overblown..all fun for fan to feel part of the game and give players some extra motivation and confidence hearing the cheering , sure might be something to it but last year no preseason not many fans in stands some had none and sports in general didn't look different..they played in bubbles and with fake crowd noise etc and somehow i didn't see difference in how the games were played.

not saying noise doesn't have some effect games but most of the players and coaches coming from colleges with larger crowds etc and been doing this most of their life already adapt to that stuff..

so the DC is the ONLY team with nice comfy indoor stadium in the entire sports world so its just us? why is TB and KC below us..both outdoor stadiums in tough climates..

shows the math isnt solving anything in sports unless you are Vegas..

the better teams typically win more no matter if its home or road..players win games..

Hoofbite said:

I’d measure by toilet flushes per capita. If you have more flushes, fans are looking for something better to do.

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Johnny Carson just popped into my head.

As far as HFA goes, I think open stadiums up North in the winter might come into play.

Amazing stadium. Other than last year I've flown down to a game each year. Absolutely Love going and the entire experience. But it's the quietest 100,000 people I've ever seen...

The one good thing is that being a new turf field that is climate controlled, it's a fast field every week and we now have a team that is built for speed. So hopefully our 29th rank jumps up a couple of spots due to this

blueblood70 said:

none of it matters games are played by humans , coached by humans, assembled by humans, and teams turnover players and staffs so often trying to use math to figure out what might happen this season is waste of brain matter. Sure it opens up entrainment for fans to discus but that about it..

most of the stadiums are gone that created true HFA, places like candlestick with bad turf and places that were generally abusive to visitors etc all gone really..both teams play in the same environment and fans being louder to mess up teams communications is overblown..all fun for fan to feel part of the game and give players some extra motivation and confidence hearing the cheering , sure might be something to it but last year no preseason not many fans in stands some had none and sports in general didn't look different..they played in bubbles and with fake crowd noise etc and somehow i didn't see difference in how the games were played.

not saying noise doesn't have some effect games but most of the players and coaches coming from colleges with larger crowds etc and been doing this most of their life already adapt to that stuff..

so the DC is the ONLY team with nice comfy indoor stadium in the entire sports world so its just us? why is TB and KC below us..both outdoor stadiums in tough climates..

shows the math isnt solving anything in sports unless you are Vegas..

the better teams typically win more no matter if its home or road..players win games..

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Yeah, I think we get that. This particular thread spoke of the measurement of said advantage, so I responded to that.

It doesn’t require a great deal of effort to apply arithmetic to analyze something like this. We just want to understand the criteria.

1. Dallas is a good team, and they’re really good in Arlington.
2. Dallas is good, but a 50-50 proposition in Arlington (seen this before)
3. Dallas is .500, good in Arlington
4. Dallas is bad, 50-50 in Arlington (like last season)
5. And so on…

Each is possible and profiles are different. It’s not necessary problem-solving. Just trying to assess. The “why” (crowd, atmosphere, team quality, other tangibles… even intangibles) is another discussion entirely, though I enjoy engaging in that one, too

WINS

scottsp said:

Yeah, I think we get that. This particular thread spoke of the measurement of said advantage, so I responded to that.

It doesn’t require a great deal of effort to apply arithmetic to analyze something like this. We just want to understand the criteria.

1. Dallas is a good team, and they’re really good in Arlington.
2. Dallas is good, but a 50-50 proposition in Arlington (seen this before)
3. Dallas is .500, good in Arlington
4. Dallas is bad, 50-50 in Arlington (like last season)
5. And so on…

Each is possible and profiles are different. It’s not necessary problem-solving. Just trying to assess. The “why” (crowd, atmosphere, team quality, other tangibles… even intangibles) is another discussion entirely, though I enjoy engaging in that one, too

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i watch football for its purity of actually playing football you know game day break down games, plays, decisions, players, coaches etc etc debate them and the next game and opponent.

i just don't care about any analytics AT ALL..i dont do FF, betting, no gambling, just for the pure entrainment of sports..

its what fans do, those that NEED to analyze it further then that well, id say you are in it for different reasons like Vegas..i gave no interest. Sports are for watching and debating not worry about % of anything..best teams typically win no matter where and when its played but for that small chance they don't you watch because sports tends to deliver some exciting games that break all trends and betting lines..

blueblood70 said:

i watch football for its purity of actually playing football you know game day break down games, plays, decisions, players, coaches etc etc debate them and the next game and opponent.

i just don't care about any analytics AT ALL..i dont do FF, betting, no gambling, just for the pure entrainment of sports..

its what fans do, those that NEED to analyze it further then that well, id say you are in it for different reasons like Vegas..i gave no interest. Sports are for watching and debating not worry about % of anything..best teams typically win no matter where and when its played but for that small chance they don't you watch because sports tends to deliver some exciting games that break all trends and betting lines..

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And that’s what’s great about this: fan utility is different for each of us. There is no right/wrong way to go about it.

Some of us can multitask it just fine. Don’t know, don’t really care how others handle their football intake. I don’t think anyone does.

Home field advantage is not just how loud the fans are. It’s a level of comfort. It’s waking up in your own bed, having the nicer locker room, not having to travel, knowing the field conditions, etc. It’s also nuances like the Dolphins having to travel to Green Bay in December, for example, where a warm weather team has to play in an environment the home team is used to. Vice versa, teams traveling to Miami have to avoid the party scene and focus on the game. I think this 12th man idea was a notion hatched to sell tickets.

For us?? Easy - spot the opponent 14 points then go from there.

plasticman said:

How do you measure "home field advantage"?

The answer, I believe, is in the definition. Home field advantage is the value measured by the increase in the probability of winning when the game being played at "home" versus being played "away".

Mathematically speaking, this can be measured by subtracting the winning percentage of away games from the winning percentage of home games and comparing that difference with the other teams.

Let's say a team wins 75% of their games at home and 60% of their games away. The "gap", if you will, is 15%.

I have calculated these gaps for all 32 teams over the past 10 seasons, 2011 to 2020. Here are the results:

Rank _ Tm _ diff
1 _ BAL _ 24%
2 _ GNB _ 23%
3 _ MIN _ 21%
4 _ CLE _ 21%
5 _ BUF _ 20%
6 _ IND _ 19%
7 _ NYJ _ 19%
8 _ MIA _ 19%
9 _ NWE _ 18%
10 _ PIT _ 17%
11 _ ARI _ 16%
12 _ SEA _ 16%
13 _ JAX _ 15%
14 _ CIN _ 14%
15 _ NOR _ 14%
16 _ DEN _ 13%
17 _ HOU _ 13%
18 _ PHI _ 9%
19 _ LVR _ 9%
20 _ CAR _ 8%
21 _ NYG _ 8%
22 _ TEN _ 8%
23 _ LAR _ 7%
24 _ LAC _ 6%
25 _ SFO _ 6%
26 _ DET _ 6%
27 _ WAS _ 6%
28 _ ATL _ 5%
29 _ DAL _ 5%
30 _ CHI _ 4%
31 _ KAN _ 3%
32 _ TAM _ 3%

The Baltimore Ravens have the best home field advantage over the past ten seasons. They won 73% of their home games and 49% of their away game which provided the largest gap of all NFL teams.

Note the last place team. Over the past ten seasons the Buc's winning percentage at away games and home games have been virtually identical. There is almost no influence on the team's results when you consider whee the game is located.

It's rather ironic that the first NFL team to gain a home field advantage for the Super Bowl was the NFL team less likely to be influenced by this achievement.

This also implies that any team playing in Tampa Bay against the Bucs will have the least likely chance of being effected by it.

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This is a great analysis. Since ATT was opened Dallas has been awful at home. The place is more carnival than football stadium. So many just miss seasons created by losing games at home they should have won. They really need to turn this around.

Not really any such thing anymore. The players are all friends and they have no team loyalty. Only about the paychecks.

And stadiums are mixed with fans from both teams. Dallas has to silent count at home half the time.

shabazz said:

Doesn’t Vegas still measure it in the form of 3 points?

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Because of travel, not the stadium. It's leaning more to 1.5 points these days.

You would need to do this for every season and calculate your wins/losses. Ten years isn't going to be accurate.

I know Vegas gives the home team 3 points in the spread .
As far as the Cowboys home stadium goes. Opposing teams look forward to playing there. They circle it on their calendars.

plasticman said:

Going by perception has never worked well for anything in history.

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That's not true. The power of our perception to situations and events that we confront on a daily basis can make or break our lives. Hence, the importance of perceiving things logically and accurately. Perception is a great predictor of our reality. If you say you can, you will. As Mahatma Gandhi once said, “ When I believe I can, I acquire the ability to do it.

plasticman said:

You need math and statistics to get the real unbiased story.

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Data can be easily corrupted and manipulated to mean whatever you want it to say. The unbiased story can only be perceived through the human experience of repeated failure but refusing to give up. Persistently acquiring the knowledge of what works and what does not work is invaluable in all facets of life in getting to what really works.

plasticman said:

People don't like that because they can't manipulate people with half truths, deception and propaganda.

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Who is advocating for the manipulation of people with half-truths? You lack faith in humanity. There are good people out there that will do the right thing with no deception or propaganda.

plasticman said:

They can misrepresent the truth with math if people don't pay attention to exact details.

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Do you mean human error? As long as there are humans there will be human error. But we are able of self-correcting. The alternative is Skynet, AI running everything. Is that what you are advocating, @plasticman?

Fan noise, or fan passion etc. is not really a factor in the Cowboys home woes. Regardless of QB, in the current stadium, the problem is turnovers at home especially interceptions. As we know, turnovers strongly correlate to win/loss records. In seasons with poor home records, the INT percentage is significantly higher at home than in road games. Why? I don’t know, but that is what the numbers say. Dallas simply threw more picks at home.

JoeKing said:

That's not true. The power of our perception to situations and events that we confront on a daily basis can make or break our lives. Hence, the importance of perceiving things logically and accurately. Perception is a great predictor of our reality. If you say you can, you will. As Mahatma Gandhi once said, “ When I believe I can, I acquire the ability to do it.

Data can be easily corrupted and manipulated to mean whatever you want it to say. The unbiased story can only be perceived through the human experience of repeated failure but refusing to give up. Persistently acquiring the knowledge of what works and what does not work is invaluable in all facets of life in getting to what really works.

Who is advocating for the manipulation of people with half-truths? You lack faith in humanity. There are good people out there that will do the right thing with no deception or propaganda.

Do you mean human error? As long as there are humans there will be human error. But we are able of self-correcting. The alternative is Skynet, AI running everything. Is that what you are advocating, @plasticman?

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I would love to debate philosophy with you but I enjoy debating football and the state of our team so much more.

The point (football related) that I was trying to make was that "homefield advantage" is the advantage you get by playing at home. The advantage isn't simply inspiration or motivation, these are means to an end. What is the end?

The end is that the team plays better and wins more often when they are at home. More often than the alternative, playing "away" games. This means that you literally have a better record at home. How much better? Again, that literally means comparing won-lost records between playing at home and playing away. The difference represents the home field advantage....literally when you subtract win percentage for away games from winning percentage at home."

Homefield advantage = winning percentage at home - winning percentage away.

The larger that number the more homefield advantaged that you have. Again, look at the Ravens. They won 73% of their games at home this past decade and only 49% at away games. That is amazing....and troubling if you are a Raven fan. This means that the Ravens are dominant at home, surely if a team is winning almost three quarters of their games then they are dominant. And yet, simply relocating the game means that the Ravens lose more than half the time, although barely, 49%.

This isn't deceptive or corrupt, it is basic and straight, this is why I presented it. I don't have any ulterior motive other than sharing this with fellow Cowboy fans. Now does this guarantee that these numbers will remain constant in the future? Of course not. Teams, coaches, circumstances, these all change. It simply illustrates the current trend.

It's no big deal, if this isn't something you are into, that's cool. Believe me, I'm not running for All knowing All Seeing Cowboy Superfan. I don't require anyone to bow in deference to my superior NFL related knowledge and intellect. I've made too many mistakes in the form of really bad predictions to ever think along those lines.

GimmeTheBall! said:

In Baltimore it is the fan signs that say "Dont mess our spred" and "We know where you live" signs.
In Dallas the fan signs say "Go Cowboys" and "Good luck, 'Boys."

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And, "Do you have any Grey Poupon?"