Bill blew it by punting in overtime

DuncanIso · Oct 19, 2021

jazzcat22 said:
It was the right call to punt. I don’t care what the stats say. You don’t go for it there.

agree.

what would Tom Landry do.

droopdog7 · Oct 19, 2021

FuzzyLumpkins said:
I was trying to support what you were saying not argue it.

Well then you're 100% right!

JD_KaPow · Oct 19, 2021

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Let's call this pulling numbers out of your ***.

They weren't my numbers, they were his. And 80% for a QB sneak is just about right. The other numbers don't change the outcome all that much.

JD_KaPow · Oct 19, 2021

FuzzyLumpkins said:
You don't buy an appeal to the authority of the greatest coach of at least the current generation and instead rely on an appeal to emotion because something made you feel better?

Nice.

Emotion has nothing to do with it. I was thrilled because I knew the Cowboys had a better chance to win that way.

JD_KaPow · Oct 19, 2021

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Yeah if you think that punting from their 46 their goal was a touchback then you are delusional. The failure to execute the punt was bigger than the decision to punt.

A ten yard difference (touchback vs. dropping it at the 10) is bigger than the decision to punt? Hardly. Sure, it's possible they could pin them deeper, but you certainly can't count on it.

FuzzyLumpkins · Oct 19, 2021

JD_KaPow said:
Emotion has nothing to do with it. I was thrilled because I knew the Cowboys had a better chance to win that way.

Knew how?

FuzzyLumpkins · Oct 19, 2021

JD_KaPow said:
They weren't my numbers, they were his. And 80% for a QB sneak is just about right. The other numbers don't change the outcome all that much.

Based on what? and it was 4th and 3 a QB sneak isn't going to work.

JD_KaPow · Oct 19, 2021

droopdog7 said:
Possession may or may not be everything, but we certainly prefer it. There is an entire theory about locus of control, which makes us feel better but isn’t necessarily logical.

For instance, many are more nervous in a plane vs a car even though the plane is safer. And that’s because you feel in control in a car and not in a plane.

Sure, there's also a well-established principle that people are overly risk-averse, so afraid of losing something that they'll pass up the better option. In this case, people significantly undervalue possession of the ball. The value of possession is real, not an emotional figment.

JD_KaPow · Oct 19, 2021

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Based on what? and it was 4th and 3 a QB sneak isn't going to work.

No, that post was about the Josh Allen play last night.

FuzzyLumpkins · Oct 19, 2021

JD_KaPow said:
No, that post was about the Josh Allen play last night.

Still no basis for the number other than it "feels" right.

jaybird · Oct 19, 2021

T-RO said:
The Patriots averaged 10.9 yards per pass attempt today (this stat excludes sacks)
The Patriots averaged 4.4 yards per rush attempt

So what did Belichick do in overtime needing just 3 yards with the Pats at their own 46?

He did what other traditional dinosaur coaches do: punted. Surrendered the ball for 34 yards of field, which wasn't likely to matter to the Cowboys offense, which gobbled up 567 yards on the day.

The sport is getting smarter. People like Bill...are not.

wrong Thats just hindsite
If you turn it over on downs there.-Game over
That just fearing Dallas Offense and trusting your defense.

JD_KaPow · Oct 19, 2021

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Still no basis for the number other than it "feels" right.

Hardly. The real number is actually 83%, I just accepted his because it's close enough.

droopdog7 · Oct 19, 2021

JD_KaPow said:
Sure, there's also a well-established principle that people are overly risk-averse, so afraid of losing something that they'll pass up the better option. In this case, people significantly undervalue possession of the ball. The value of possession is real, not an emotional figment.

Sure, possession of the ball has a value (that obviously fluctuates a gazillion different ways depending on the situation). What we have NOT done here is accurately place on value on it. So who the heck knows.

What we do know is that people prefer to be in control vs not. As for risk-averse, okay. Neither here nor there.

Kevinicus · Oct 19, 2021

BrassCowboy said:
Again I lol. Always loved you type of people who can only throw insult because your ego has been nicked a little. You need to lighten up a little. Don't take life so seriously, especially a game where the end result means absolutely nothing in the end.

You can throw around some programmed algorithm of theoretical, and I will still say ahhh I will stick with human opinion as long as it is one you believe in. I am good.

Prime example is the obvious blunders of MMs decisions to go for it early, don't care what artificial "intelligence" you can conjure up, it was dumb and it showed.

Just my opinion, thanks for sharing yours.

It's not theoretical. It's real world data.

BrassCowboy · Oct 19, 2021

Kevinicus said:
It's not theoretical. It's real world data.

Well then, that settles it

BrassCowboy · Oct 19, 2021

T-RO said:
I shared the links...didn't expect you to show an ounce of interest in exploring new ideas. And you didn't.

I value the opinions of people who are open to learning new things and challenging themselves a little.

Sorry to waste your time. I have more important things to concern my time with anyway

T-RO · Oct 19, 2021

BrassCowboy said:
Sorry to waste your time. I have more important things to concern my time with anyway

You have time enough to repeatedly dispute and diminish people posting here.

Not 5 minutes to look at some articles that explain analytics. So lame.

T-RO · Oct 19, 2021

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Well, it is obvious that going for it on 4th and 3 at your own 46 is not a sure fire way to win.

The only argument that I have seen for going for it is that it was "relieving when they came out to punt." That is prima facie nonsense.

The reality is that there is a lot of uncertainty and personally I am comfortable with assuming that Bill Belichick has a better idea of "the way the game was going" than a bunch of message board romantics.

Message board romantics? You are the one clinging to a fuzzy, warm, lost era of football, where you run on first and second down, and always dutifully punt on 4th down.

I've lost track of the Boston-area and national analysts criticizing Bill for his cowardly ways. And not only on that play but in other decisions Sunday and over the past couple years.

Just "message board romantics" slamming Bill for conservative ways? Here's others:
-Writers @ The Athletic
-Basically all local Bostonian media
-PFF
-ESPN
-Fox Sports
-NFL.com
Etc.

Their criticism doesn't prove the case here, but perhaps you should take a read or a listen.

T-RO · Oct 19, 2021

droopdog7 said:
So obviously I'm just pulling numbers out of my arse. And, I have not factored in the possibility that the pats kick a FG. But if you want to keep claiming analytics, then show your work. And then let me determine how it applies to this specific situation.

Check out this calculator on whether to go for it or not. You can enter in the most meaningful game situation and run the calculation.

https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator/

T-RO · Oct 19, 2021

droopdog7 said:
Maybe bill didn’t trust Mac Jones? I know I wouldn’t.

Has completed about 70% of his passes this year. Analysts have praised his accuracy, quickness to get ball out, and decision-making.

Just needed a short pass to a RB or tight end.

Bill blew it by punting in overtime

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

jimnabby

jimnabby

jimnabby

The Boognish

The Boognish

jimnabby

jimnabby

The Boognish

Well-Known Member

jimnabby

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member