Can someone explain the analytics that say going for it on 4th at 0-0 is the right call?

VaqueroTD said:

There are some smart fans on this site who can maybe explain this better. I've seen the articles and the websites that show you the percentage. The analytics guys seem to say it's almost always a good call to be aggressive and go for it on 4th early in the game?

When McCarthy decided to go for it on 4th in the Pats game at 0-0, I thought we may have lost the game with that decision. Having watched the Parcells Tree in Dallas, I know how those teams play against high-powered offenses. They're looking for mistakes like that so they can grind it out. It was a good win though, and everyone forgot about it, especially when the analytics guys said it was a good call.

But what about momentum? And just psychological 'getting points on the board.' Having watched the Boys since the early 80's, it always feels like there is this sense of relief in the stadium, on the TV, etc when you score first blood. FG or TD, and sometimes just going through your first series, doesn't matter. AND it seems to settle the players down. Playing in front of 100k people every game - no matter how many years of experience - I would guess much of our roster comes in with some butterflies and needs to settle down. From my own personal sports experience, I know once you get the sweat and the intensity going, you're in the zone, but that START of the game is always weird.

I'm all for being aggressive later in the game with a high-powered offense that has momentum (which oddly enough seem to be the decisions the analytics guys seem to frown on the most) but at 0-0? I would always go conservative.

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Xeven said:

In the first quarter is when you take your shots. You have the entire game to make up for an early fail. If you go for it and get 7 then you establish momentum.

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Darthkuriboh said:

9 times out of 10 we get it. Today was just a bad day. Getting fourth down conversions deflate the opposing team and give you more momentum

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CowboyRoy said:

Its NOT 9 times out of 10.

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cowboyec said:

you would think we could gain a yard with this talent.

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VaqueroTD said:

There are some smart ans on this site who can maybe explain this better. I've seen the articles and the websites that show you the percentage. The analytics guys seem to say it's almost always a good call to be aggressive and go for it on 4th early in the game?

When McCarthy decided to go for it on 4th in the Pats game at 0-0, I thought we may have lost the game with that decision. Having watched the Parcells Tree in Dallas, I know how those teams play against high-powered offenses. They're looking for mistakes like that so they can grind it out. It was a good win though, and everyone forgot about it, especially when the analytics guys said it was a good call.

But what about momentum? And just psychological 'getting points on the board.' Having watched the Boys since the early 80's, it always feels like there is this sense of relief in the stadium, on the TV, etc when you score first blood. FG or TD, and sometimes just going through your first series, doesn't matter. AND it seems to settle the players down. Playing in front of 100k people every game - no matter how many years of experience - I would guess much of our roster comes in with some butterflies and needs to settle down. From my own personal sports experience, I know once you get the sweat and the intensity going, you're in the zone, but that START of the game is always weird.

I'm all for being aggressive later in the game with a high-powered offense that has momentum (which oddly enough seem to be the decisions the analytics guys seem to frown on the most) but at 0-0? I would always go conservative.

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Risen Star said:

I don't mind it as much as everyone seems to.

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Darthkuriboh said:

9 times out of 10 we get it. Today was just a bad day. Getting fourth down conversions deflate the opposing team and give you more momentum

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CowboyRoy said:

Its because the other team has analytics too. And they know if they stack the box, more than likely Zeke will run up the middle and not have the ability to bounce it outside.

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2288doubletrouble said:

Exactly, so either punt the damn ball or go for 3 in field goal range.

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cowboyec said:

you would think we could gain a yard with this talent.

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BAT said:

Not with those OTs obviously.

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CowboyRoy said:

analytics are a tool, not a strategy. Those analytics dont know diddly about your opponent, your injuries, run defense, momentum, time of the game, ect....ect.......

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CowboyRoy said:

What is the point of going for it on your own 40 on your first drive? Its 100% total stupidity.

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Established1971 said:

teams who score first win 66% of the time. They were playing the #6 defense in the league, you take 3 points, set the tone. Then he goes for it again. He needs to freaking stop doing this so often

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CowboyRoy said:

Dumbest thing he does. When your are playing teams that are inferior to you you dont give them a chance to get a lead early in the game and gain momentum.

MM is an idiot.

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CowboyRoy said:

Dumbest thing he does. When your are playing teams that are inferior to you you dont give them a chance to get a lead early in the game and gain momentum.

MM is an idiot.

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Darthkuriboh said:

I exaggerate for effect. We do get it more often than not

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TwistedL0g1k said:

Absolutely!

The momentum shift was huge. It changed the entire complexion of the game.

MM gave away points, and gave away the momentum.

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