Final Update on Point Differential and Why it Matters

Bobhaze

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Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB. I updated again a few weeks ago, and NOW…here’s the final point differential numbers for the 2021 season:

THE FINAL TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL:
  1. Bills +194
  2. Cowboys +172
  3. Patriots +159
  4. Buccaneers +158
  5. Chiefs +116
  6. Rams +88
Why is it important? Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF PD FROM THE LAST 5 SEASONS:
2020 SEASON
  1. Ravens +165
  2. Saints +145
  3. Pack +140
  4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
  5. Bills +126
  6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)
2019 SEASON
  1. Ravens +249
  2. Pats +195
  3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
  4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
  5. Saints +117
2018 SEASON
  1. Saints +151
  2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
  3. Chiefs +144
  4. Bears +138
  5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)
2017 SEASON
  1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
  3. Jaguars +149
  4. Rams +148
  5. Vikings +130
2016 SEASON
  1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
  3. Cowboys +115
  4. Chiefs +78
  5. Steelers +72
Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of tough playoff football to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are in a good position to be a SB team based on recent history. They just have to get mentally and physically tough enough to do it.
 

Sydla

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Good analysis. It doesn't guarantee anything but shows that we are at least in a position to make a run.

It's kind of like run differential in baseball. When you get halfway through the season, you sometimes see teams leading the division or WC that have poor or even negative run differentials. History shows that teams with bad run differentials right around the All Star break tend to fold down the stretch.
 
Bobhaze

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Sydla said:
Good analysis. It doesn't guarantee anything but shows that we are at least in a position to make a run.

It's kind of like run differential in baseball. When you get halfway through the season, you sometimes see teams leading the division or WC that have poor or even negative run differentials. History shows that teams with bad run differentials right around the All Star break tend to fold down the stretch.
Click to expand...
That’s a good comparison.

I think all the Cowboys need to add to what they have is the one ingredient this organization has lacked for too long: TOUGHNESS- mental and physical. If this team can be as tough as their talent they will have a very good playoff run.
 
DFWJC

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Bobhaze said:
Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB. I updated again a few weeks ago, and NOW…here’s the final point differential numbers for the 2021 season:

THE FINAL TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL:
  1. Bills +194
  2. Cowboys +172
  3. Patriots +159
  4. Buccaneers +158
  5. Chiefs +116
  6. Rams +88
Why is it important? Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF PD FROM THE LAST 5 SEASONS:
2020 SEASON
  1. Ravens +165
  2. Saints +145
  3. Pack +140
  4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
  5. Bills +126
  6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)
2019 SEASON
  1. Ravens +249
  2. Pats +195
  3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
  4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
  5. Saints +117
2018 SEASON
  1. Saints +151
  2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
  3. Chiefs +144
  4. Bears +138
  5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)
2017 SEASON
  1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
  3. Jaguars +149
  4. Rams +148
  5. Vikings +130
2016 SEASON
  1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
  3. Cowboys +115
  4. Chiefs +78
  5. Steelers +72
Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of tough playoff football to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are in a good position to be a SB team based on recent history. They just have to get mentally and physically tough enough to do it.
Click to expand...
So top 10
Meaning all the top 6 you listed (not sure who the other 4 were but probably also in-playoffs…except awful Philly) all have chance to fet to Conf champ or SB.
 
john van brocklin

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Bobhaze said:
Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB. I updated again a few weeks ago, and NOW…here’s the final point differential numbers for the 2021 season:

THE FINAL TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL:
  1. Bills +194
  2. Cowboys +172
  3. Patriots +159
  4. Buccaneers +158
  5. Chiefs +116
  6. Rams +88
Why is it important? Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF PD FROM THE LAST 5 SEASONS:
2020 SEASON
  1. Ravens +165
  2. Saints +145
  3. Pack +140
  4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
  5. Bills +126
  6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)
2019 SEASON
  1. Ravens +249
  2. Pats +195
  3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
  4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
  5. Saints +117
2018 SEASON
  1. Saints +151
  2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
  3. Chiefs +144
  4. Bears +138
  5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)
2017 SEASON
  1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
  3. Jaguars +149
  4. Rams +148
  5. Vikings +130
2016 SEASON
  1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
  3. Cowboys +115
  4. Chiefs +78
  5. Steelers +72
Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of tough playoff football to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are in a good position to be a SB team based on recent history. They just have to get mentally and physically tough enough to do it.
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Thanks for the update sir
 
CCBoy

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Bobhaze said:
That’s a good comparison.

I think all the Cowboys need to add to what they have is the one ingredient this organization has lacked for too long: TOUGHNESS- mental and physical. If this team can be as tough as their talent they will have a very good playoff run.
Click to expand...

I like the showing of actual tangibles for why this Dallas team actually wins.

Get all it's starters back on the carpet and normal in play and the Cowboys will be very tough for any team to beat...
 

Sydla

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DFWJC said:
So top 10
Meaning all the top 6 you listed (not sure who the other 4 were but probably also in-playoffs…except awful Philly) all have chance to fet to Conf champ or SB.
Click to expand...

Philly has the lowest points differential in NFC (59) with the 49ers at 62.

Getting beat by 25 Saturday night did not help the Eagles there, LOL.
 
grgnfg420

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All it means is we beat the piss out of bad teams. It would of been nice to beat a good team this year
 
Bobhaze

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DFWJC said:
So top 10
Meaning all the top 6 you listed (not sure who the other 4 were but probably also in-playoffs…except awful Philly) all have chance to fet to Conf champ or SB.
Click to expand...
Meaning- Based on the last 5 seasons, every SB team- winner and loser- was in the top 6 PD.
 
Bobhaze

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grgnfg420 said:
All it means is we beat the piss out of bad teams. It would of been nice to beat a good team this year
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The Cowboys won 3 (maybe 4 if Chargers win) games against playoff teams. The buccaneers have won 4 games against playoff teams. The Pack won 5 games against playoff teams, but lost to the lions and saints. The bucs got beat twice by the saints and once by the WFT. We’re 3-0 against those teams, lol. It’s not like every playoff team is only beating good teams.
 
DFWJC

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Bobhaze said:
Meaning- Based on the last 5 seasons, every SB team- winner and loser- was in the top 6 PD.
Click to expand...
But dont we already think we are one of the top 6 or so?
I guess this might give more credence, but I wasnt thinking it was telling us anything new.
I do know we piled up massive victory margins over NFC East team, but whatever
 
grgnfg420

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Bobhaze said:
The Cowboys won 3 (maybe 4 if Chargers win) games against playoff teams. The buccaneers have won 4 games against playoff teams. The Pack won 5 games against playoff teams, but lost to the lions and saints. The bucs got beat twice by the saints and once by the WFT. We’re 3-0 against those teams, lol. It’s not like every playoff team is only beating good teams.
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Patriots and eagles twice is the fine print on that argument basically every team we will be competing with in the playoffs we lost to
 
Jinxx13x

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Bobhaze said:
Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB. I updated again a few weeks ago, and NOW…here’s the final point differential numbers for the 2021 season:

THE FINAL TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL:
  1. Bills +194
  2. Cowboys +172
  3. Patriots +159
  4. Buccaneers +158
  5. Chiefs +116
  6. Rams +88
Why is it important? Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF PD FROM THE LAST 5 SEASONS:
2020 SEASON
  1. Ravens +165
  2. Saints +145
  3. Pack +140
  4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
  5. Bills +126
  6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)
2019 SEASON
  1. Ravens +249
  2. Pats +195
  3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
  4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
  5. Saints +117
2018 SEASON
  1. Saints +151
  2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
  3. Chiefs +144
  4. Bears +138
  5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)
2017 SEASON
  1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
  3. Jaguars +149
  4. Rams +148
  5. Vikings +130
2016 SEASON
  1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
  3. Cowboys +115
  4. Chiefs +78
  5. Steelers +72
Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of tough playoff football to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are in a good position to be a SB team based on recent history. They just have to get mentally and physically tough enough to do it.
Click to expand...
Fun and interesting read ! i appreciate the work that went into this post if i could give it more than 1 like i would !
 
Diehardblues

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It’s just another stat to support an opinion or narrative. I see more teams in that group that didn’t make a Super Bowl.

That said it’s a good stat line as it will often determine the better teams but not necessarily who goes all the way.

One of the best stat lines is #1 seed . And that didn’t help us either time this era.

The stat line which impresses me the most is turnover differential which it’s the #1 stat in the NFL. If we come out on top in this category in the playoffs it dramatically increases our chances.

We are facing though perhaps the two greatest QB of this era in potential road games in Tampa and Green Bay, both with solid teams and a career of pressure playoff performances. If there is something that would give me some hope is one of them getting knocked off before we meet them.

Based on what I’ve seen especially in 2nd half of season I see little reason we’d expect to go to either venue and win. And there’s no shame in losing to greater talents and more experienced teams, especially on the road in underdog roles.
 

zeroburrito

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this means almost nothing. most of those teams did not make the superbowl. being 1 of the 6 teams is expected when you're the 3rd seed of a conference...lol(top 6 overall).
 
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