CFZ The Proper Way to Grade a Draft

fivetwos

fivetwos

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See....things like starting XWoods at safety, and he is terrible, and contributes greatly to being an average team.....yet claiming you draft well because you found a starter in the 6th round.....yeah well you get the picture by now.

It aint just him.
 
plasticman

plasticman

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The proper way to grade a draft is five years later. Until then we are just relying on "expert" opinion.

Here is what "experts" thought about three Cowboys offensive linemen, all three turned into 1st team All Pro.

Tyron Smith

Would benefit from adding more bulk to his frame

Does not have natural football instincts

Overall awareness is lacking

Can be baited by stunts and twists

Does not recognize the blitz as quickly as you'd like to see

Can be beat by speed-to-power pass rushing moves

https://***USER-BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1***/scoutingreport2011tsmith_greg.php

Zack Martin

Limited exposure to a man-blocking scheme

Short arms (32 1/4")

Undersized

Frame could be maxed out

May not be strong enough to fit at guard

https://***USER-BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1***/scoutingreport2014zmartin.php

Travis Frederick

Again, I question if Frederick has enough athleticism to really thrive in the NFL. You don’t need to be a freak athlete to play center, but I watched more tape of Frederick struggling with speed at the college level. I think he has the determination and work ethic to improve, but it won’t matter if he’s not athletic enough to play with NFL talent.

I also don’t like that Frederick is a low-ceiling player. I really doubt that he can ever play at an All-Pro level, even if he maxes out on his potential. It’s smart to invest in safe players in the first round, but the Cowboys probably could have drafted a safe player with more upside.

Re-Grade: Second Round

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/sports/...ting-report-on-cowboys-first-rounder/2074600/
 
john van brocklin

john van brocklin

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Jumbo075 said:
Based on the players that last on rosters, elevating a draft grade because a team did a good job drafting in the later rounds doesn't make a lot of sense. There is a reason the vast majority of long-term NFL players are drafted in the top 100-150 players.

Here is how you should grade a draft:

1st round pick - should account for about 45% of a draft grade
2nd round pick - should account for about 20% of a draft grade
3rd round pick - should account for about 15% of a draft grade
4th round pick - should account for about 8% of a draft grade

So, 88% of whatever draft grade you give a team should come from the first 4 rounds of the draft. There is just a low, low probability of any players drafted in rounds 5-7 make an impact on your team. Don't beliieve me? Just look at the current starting lineup and key backups of the Cowboys team

QB - 4th round pick (Prescott)
RB - 1st round pick (Elliott) & 4th round pick (Pollard)
TE - Two (2) 4th round picks (Shultz, Ferguson)
WR - 1st round pick (Lamb), 2nd round pick (Washington) and two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallup, Tolbert)
OL - Three (3) 1st round picks (Smith, Smith, Martin), 3rd round pick (McGovern), two (2) 4th round picks (Biadasz, Ball), Undrafted (Steele)

DE - 1st round pick (Fowler), two (2) 2nd round picks (Lawrence, Williams), two (2) 3rd round picks (Basham, Gholston), two (2) 4th round picks (Watkins, Armstrong)
DT - 2nd round pick (Hill), two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallimore, Odighizuwa), 4th round pick (Urban)
LB - Two (2) 1st round picks (Van der Esch, Parsons), 4th round pick (Cox), 5th round (Clark)
CB - Two (2) 2nd round picks (Diggs, Joseph), 3rd round pick (Lewis), 6th round pick (Brown)
S - 1st round pick (Hooker), 6th round pick (Wilson), 7th round pick (Kearse)

Totals:
9 - 1st round picks
6 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
10 - 4th round picks

So, picks from the top 4 rounds account for 33 of the starters and key backups. Only 5 key starters or backups come from the later rounds or undrafted ranks. Face it. Rounds 5-7 are for tackling dummies to assist during practice, provide emergency injury support when needed, and play special teams.

So, when you are grading the draft, make sure not to give too much weight to the 5 players the Cowboys selected in rounds 5 & 6 this past month.
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My eye test tells me that we seem to do a fairly good job at drafting.
 
Flamma

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dsturgeon said:
How can you accurately compare draft grades from 2 teams with this method.

If a team has 2 1st round picks, does each pick get 22.5 % of the 1st round grade. If they pick one good player and one horrible, that would average out to a bad 1st round pick grade percentage, and would not compare to a team with one 1st round pick that is good
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Unless I'm reading it wrong, I think it was just a general rule to weigh earlier rounds more heavily. I was thinking the same thing when I started seeing sites come out with draft grades for each team. They didn't take into account the rounds they were picked. Screwing up in the 1st or 2nd can't be made up for in the 5th and 6th. But in time I guess all will be revealed anyway.
 
dsturgeon

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Flamma said:
Unless I'm reading it wrong, I think it was just a general rule to weigh earlier rounds more heavily. I was thinking the same thing when I started seeing sites come out with draft grades for each team. They didn't take into account the rounds they were picked. Screwing up in the 1st or 2nd can't be made up for in the 5th and 6th. But in time I guess all will be revealed anyway.
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What level do you think the cowboys picks will improve the team. Their current team before the draft, not a comparison of the players from the team last year
 
Flamma

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dsturgeon said:
What level do you think the cowboys picks will improve the team. Their current team before the draft, not a comparison of the players from the team last year
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That's a somewhat difficult question because it's hard for me to look at it that way. I'd say a decent to significant level. But overall, and I know this is not what you asked, but it was a status quo draft. So considering what we lost, in order to be status quo, it had to have improved the team we have now significantly.
 

kskboys

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Invariably, the teams who find useful players in the mid to late rounds are the teams who end up super bowl contenders.

As far as trading late round picks to move up, I'm all for it, especially if starters are needed.
 
dsturgeon

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Flamma said:
That's a somewhat difficult question because it's hard for me to look at it that way. I'd say a decent to significant level. But overall, and I know this is not what you asked, but it was a status quo draft. So considering what we lost, in order to be status quo, it had to have improved the team we have now significantly.
Click to expand...

It is difficult to answer. The only way I can think to answer is that they added more speed, size, and power as a whole.

I actually they will be better than last year. They might not top out in areas like they did last year, but the baseline has improved
 
Flamma

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dsturgeon said:
It is difficult to answer. The only way I can think to answer is that they added more speed, size, and power as a whole.

I actually they will be better than last year. They might not top out in areas like they did last year, but the baseline has improved
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It wouldn't surprise me if we were better than last year for several reasons besides what you mentioned. Player development already on the team being one of them. I like the players we drafted. I prefer the young Williams over Gregory on the edge. Even though it's wishful thinking.

But if I have to grade our draft without bias, based on who we lost and who we drafted. Status quo is the safe bet. It can turn out better, and I am hoping it does. I prefer out with the old and in with the new.
 
Flamma

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kskboys said:
Invariably, the teams who find useful players in the mid to late rounds are the teams who end up super bowl contenders.

As far as trading late round picks to move up, I'm all for it, especially if starters are needed.
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Seahawks would be the perfect example of that. The thing about trading late round picks to move up, how far can you move up? Late round picks are only good to move up in later rounds. Or used to even out bigger trades. Most of the times teams don't have multiple 5th or 6th rounders. Teams have 3-5 picks in later rounds usually. You can package them all, they'll barely get you into the mid 4th round.
 
TequilaCowboy

TequilaCowboy

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Jarntt said:
Tom Brady

Have a nice day…
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LOL, i like how when people are talking about how insignificant bottom round players are, the name Tom Brady always comes up... even NE was shocked when they found out what they had. He was just supposed to be cannon fodder while Bledsoe recovered from his injury. And the rest is history.
 
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