CFZ The Proper Way to Grade a Draft

Rayman70 · May 7, 2022

kskboys said:
Both.

We've drafted some good players but have failed at drafting a good team.

well said.

KJJ · May 7, 2022

The proper way to grade a draft is allowing these players to play at least one season then mark your report card. Each year you adjust the grade until these players complete their rookie deals and see what the final grade is. It may only take a couple of years to realize a player is going to end up with a failing grade. Drafting talented players doesn’t always mean they’ll end up good players.

G2 · May 7, 2022

kskboys said:
That's exactly what I was going to say!!!!

Its the only way.

john van brocklin · May 7, 2022

kskboys said:
1 million percent. Many don't understand how Jerry not being a football man hurts us.

Actually quite a few on this board understand this fact, unfortunitly it does not seem to matter.

conner01 · May 7, 2022

Jumbo075 said:
Based on the players that last on rosters, elevating a draft grade because a team did a good job drafting in the later rounds doesn't make a lot of sense. There is a reason the vast majority of long-term NFL players are drafted in the top 100-150 players.

Here is how you should grade a draft:

1st round pick - should account for about 45% of a draft grade
2nd round pick - should account for about 20% of a draft grade
3rd round pick - should account for about 15% of a draft grade
4th round pick - should account for about 8% of a draft grade

So, 88% of whatever draft grade you give a team should come from the first 4 rounds of the draft. There is just a low, low probability of any players drafted in rounds 5-7 make an impact on your team. Don't beliieve me? Just look at the current starting lineup and key backups of the Cowboys team

QB - 4th round pick (Prescott)
RB - 1st round pick (Elliott) & 4th round pick (Pollard)
TE - Two (2) 4th round picks (Shultz, Ferguson)
WR - 1st round pick (Lamb), 2nd round pick (Washington) and two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallup, Tolbert)
OL - Three (3) 1st round picks (Smith, Smith, Martin), 3rd round pick (McGovern), two (2) 4th round picks (Biadasz, Ball), Undrafted (Steele)

DE - 1st round pick (Fowler), two (2) 2nd round picks (Lawrence, Williams), two (2) 3rd round picks (Basham, Gholston), two (2) 4th round picks (Watkins, Armstrong)
DT - 2nd round pick (Hill), two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallimore, Odighizuwa), 4th round pick (Urban)
LB - Two (2) 1st round picks (Van der Esch, Parsons), 4th round pick (Cox), 5th round (Clark)
CB - Two (2) 2nd round picks (Diggs, Joseph), 3rd round pick (Lewis), 6th round pick (Brown)
S - 1st round pick (Hooker), 6th round pick (Wilson), 7th round pick (Kearse)

Totals:
9 - 1st round picks
6 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
10 - 4th round picks

So, picks from the top 4 rounds account for 33 of the starters and key backups. Only 5 key starters or backups come from the later rounds or undrafted ranks. Face it. Rounds 5-7 are for tackling dummies to assist during practice, provide emergency injury support when needed, and play special teams.

So, when you are grading the draft, make sure not to give too much weight to the 5 players the Cowboys selected in rounds 5 & 6 this past month.

I see the logic but since the odds of a 5-7 round player are slim wouldn’t mean you did a better job if you hit on one?
Really to me you can’t judge a draft for 3-4 years
And even longer for a real judgement because first round picks tend to get opportunities they don’t always earn. So if one is still starting on a second contract he probably earned it
You idea isn’t bad but does show the judgement of a draft is subjective to an extent
But the idea is sound just doesn’t always tell the whole picture

xwalker · May 7, 2022

Jumbo075 said:
Based on the players that last on rosters, elevating a draft grade because a team did a good job drafting in the later rounds doesn't make a lot of sense. There is a reason the vast majority of long-term NFL players are drafted in the top 100-150 players.

Here is how you should grade a draft:

1st round pick - should account for about 45% of a draft grade
2nd round pick - should account for about 20% of a draft grade
3rd round pick - should account for about 15% of a draft grade
4th round pick - should account for about 8% of a draft grade

So, 88% of whatever draft grade you give a team should come from the first 4 rounds of the draft. There is just a low, low probability of any players drafted in rounds 5-7 make an impact on your team. Don't beliieve me? Just look at the current starting lineup and key backups of the Cowboys team

QB - 4th round pick (Prescott)
RB - 1st round pick (Elliott) & 4th round pick (Pollard)
TE - Two (2) 4th round picks (Shultz, Ferguson)
WR - 1st round pick (Lamb), 2nd round pick (Washington) and two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallup, Tolbert)
OL - Three (3) 1st round picks (Smith, Smith, Martin), 3rd round pick (McGovern), two (2) 4th round picks (Biadasz, Ball), Undrafted (Steele)

DE - 1st round pick (Fowler), two (2) 2nd round picks (Lawrence, Williams), two (2) 3rd round picks (Basham, Gholston), two (2) 4th round picks (Watkins, Armstrong)
DT - 2nd round pick (Hill), two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallimore, Odighizuwa), 4th round pick (Urban)
LB - Two (2) 1st round picks (Van der Esch, Parsons), 4th round pick (Cox), 5th round (Clark)
CB - Two (2) 2nd round picks (Diggs, Joseph), 3rd round pick (Lewis), 6th round pick (Brown)
S - 1st round pick (Hooker), 6th round pick (Wilson), 7th round pick (Kearse)

Totals:
9 - 1st round picks
6 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
10 - 4th round picks

So, picks from the top 4 rounds account for 33 of the starters and key backups. Only 5 key starters or backups come from the later rounds or undrafted ranks. Face it. Rounds 5-7 are for tackling dummies to assist during practice, provide emergency injury support when needed, and play special teams.

So, when you are grading the draft, make sure not to give too much weight to the 5 players the Cowboys selected in rounds 5 & 6 this past month.

Please grade the Patriots 2000 draft...

MaineBoy · May 7, 2022

Jumbo075 said:
Based on the players that last on rosters, elevating a draft grade because a team did a good job drafting in the later rounds doesn't make a lot of sense. There is a reason the vast majority of long-term NFL players are drafted in the top 100-150 players.

Here is how you should grade a draft:

1st round pick - should account for about 45% of a draft grade
2nd round pick - should account for about 20% of a draft grade
3rd round pick - should account for about 15% of a draft grade
4th round pick - should account for about 8% of a draft grade

So, 88% of whatever draft grade you give a team should come from the first 4 rounds of the draft. There is just a low, low probability of any players drafted in rounds 5-7 make an impact on your team. Don't beliieve me? Just look at the current starting lineup and key backups of the Cowboys team

QB - 4th round pick (Prescott)
RB - 1st round pick (Elliott) & 4th round pick (Pollard)
TE - Two (2) 4th round picks (Shultz, Ferguson)
WR - 1st round pick (Lamb), 2nd round pick (Washington) and two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallup, Tolbert)
OL - Three (3) 1st round picks (Smith, Smith, Martin), 3rd round pick (McGovern), two (2) 4th round picks (Biadasz, Ball), Undrafted (Steele)

DE - 1st round pick (Fowler), two (2) 2nd round picks (Lawrence, Williams), two (2) 3rd round picks (Basham, Gholston), two (2) 4th round picks (Watkins, Armstrong)
DT - 2nd round pick (Hill), two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallimore, Odighizuwa), 4th round pick (Urban)
LB - Two (2) 1st round picks (Van der Esch, Parsons), 4th round pick (Cox), 5th round (Clark)
CB - Two (2) 2nd round picks (Diggs, Joseph), 3rd round pick (Lewis), 6th round pick (Brown)
S - 1st round pick (Hooker), 6th round pick (Wilson), 7th round pick (Kearse)

Totals:
9 - 1st round picks
6 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
10 - 4th round picks

So, picks from the top 4 rounds account for 33 of the starters and key backups. Only 5 key starters or backups come from the later rounds or undrafted ranks. Face it. Rounds 5-7 are for tackling dummies to assist during practice, provide emergency injury support when needed, and play special teams.

So, when you are grading the draft, make sure not to give too much weight to the 5 players the Cowboys selected in rounds 5 & 6 this past month.

You’ve got way too much time on your hands…

xwalker · May 7, 2022

Diehardblues said:
Generally if 1st round round pick is a flop the draft is graded low.

The Patriots initial pick in the 2000 draft was an OLineman with 10 career starts and was out of the league after 5 seasons.

CalPolyTechnique · May 7, 2022

Jumbo075 said:
Based on the players that last on rosters, elevating a draft grade because a team did a good job drafting in the later rounds doesn't make a lot of sense. There is a reason the vast majority of long-term NFL players are drafted in the top 100-150 players.

Here is how you should grade a draft:

1st round pick - should account for about 45% of a draft grade
2nd round pick - should account for about 20% of a draft grade
3rd round pick - should account for about 15% of a draft grade
4th round pick - should account for about 8% of a draft grade

So, 88% of whatever draft grade you give a team should come from the first 4 rounds of the draft. There is just a low, low probability of any players drafted in rounds 5-7 make an impact on your team. Don't beliieve me? Just look at the current starting lineup and key backups of the Cowboys team

QB - 4th round pick (Prescott)
RB - 1st round pick (Elliott) & 4th round pick (Pollard)
TE - Two (2) 4th round picks (Shultz, Ferguson)
WR - 1st round pick (Lamb), 2nd round pick (Washington) and two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallup, Tolbert)
OL - Three (3) 1st round picks (Smith, Smith, Martin), 3rd round pick (McGovern), two (2) 4th round picks (Biadasz, Ball), Undrafted (Steele)

DE - 1st round pick (Fowler), two (2) 2nd round picks (Lawrence, Williams), two (2) 3rd round picks (Basham, Gholston), two (2) 4th round picks (Watkins, Armstrong)
DT - 2nd round pick (Hill), two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallimore, Odighizuwa), 4th round pick (Urban)
LB - Two (2) 1st round picks (Van der Esch, Parsons), 4th round pick (Cox), 5th round (Clark)
CB - Two (2) 2nd round picks (Diggs, Joseph), 3rd round pick (Lewis), 6th round pick (Brown)
S - 1st round pick (Hooker), 6th round pick (Wilson), 7th round pick (Kearse)

Totals:
9 - 1st round picks
6 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
10 - 4th round picks

So, picks from the top 4 rounds account for 33 of the starters and key backups. Only 5 key starters or backups come from the later rounds or undrafted ranks. Face it. Rounds 5-7 are for tackling dummies to assist during practice, provide emergency injury support when needed, and play special teams.

So, when you are grading the draft, make sure not to give too much weight to the 5 players the Cowboys selected in rounds 5 & 6 this past month.

Luulz.

kskboys · May 7, 2022

Flamma said:
Seahawks would be the perfect example of that. The thing about trading late round picks to move up, how far can you move up? Late round picks are only good to move up in later rounds. Or used to even out bigger trades. Most of the times teams don't have multiple 5th or 6th rounders. Teams have 3-5 picks in later rounds usually. You can package them all, they'll barely get you into the mid 4th round.

Generally not enough to matter.

Zekeats · May 7, 2022

Jumbo075 said:
Based on the players that last on rosters, elevating a draft grade because a team did a good job drafting in the later rounds doesn't make a lot of sense. There is a reason the vast majority of long-term NFL players are drafted in the top 100-150 players.

Here is how you should grade a draft:

1st round pick - should account for about 45% of a draft grade
2nd round pick - should account for about 20% of a draft grade
3rd round pick - should account for about 15% of a draft grade
4th round pick - should account for about 8% of a draft grade

So, 88% of whatever draft grade you give a team should come from the first 4 rounds of the draft. There is just a low, low probability of any players drafted in rounds 5-7 make an impact on your team. Don't beliieve me? Just look at the current starting lineup and key backups of the Cowboys team

QB - 4th round pick (Prescott)
RB - 1st round pick (Elliott) & 4th round pick (Pollard)
TE - Two (2) 4th round picks (Shultz, Ferguson)
WR - 1st round pick (Lamb), 2nd round pick (Washington) and two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallup, Tolbert)
OL - Three (3) 1st round picks (Smith, Smith, Martin), 3rd round pick (McGovern), two (2) 4th round picks (Biadasz, Ball), Undrafted (Steele)

DE - 1st round pick (Fowler), two (2) 2nd round picks (Lawrence, Williams), two (2) 3rd round picks (Basham, Gholston), two (2) 4th round picks (Watkins, Armstrong)
DT - 2nd round pick (Hill), two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallimore, Odighizuwa), 4th round pick (Urban)
LB - Two (2) 1st round picks (Van der Esch, Parsons), 4th round pick (Cox), 5th round (Clark)
CB - Two (2) 2nd round picks (Diggs, Joseph), 3rd round pick (Lewis), 6th round pick (Brown)
S - 1st round pick (Hooker), 6th round pick (Wilson), 7th round pick (Kearse)

Totals:
9 - 1st round picks
6 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
10 - 4th round picks

So, picks from the top 4 rounds account for 33 of the starters and key backups. Only 5 key starters or backups come from the later rounds or undrafted ranks. Face it. Rounds 5-7 are for tackling dummies to assist during practice, provide emergency injury support when needed, and play special teams.

So, when you are grading the draft, make sure not to give too much weight to the 5 players the Cowboys selected in rounds 5 & 6 this past month.

Proper way to grade a draft is after 3 years. So lets go back and grade the 2019 draft.

Diehardblues · May 8, 2022

xwalker said:
The Patriots initial pick in the 2000 draft was an OLineman with 10 career starts and was out of the league after 5 seasons.

So, you want to use one draft as your poster child example or more of the exception .

baltcowboy · May 8, 2022

Some on the board think CeeDee is a bust. :omg:

CFZ The Proper Way to Grade a Draft

Rayman70

Well-Known Member

KJJ

You Have an Axe to Grind

G2

Taco Engineer

john van brocklin

Captain Comeback

conner01

Well-Known Member

xwalker

Well-Known Member

MaineBoy

Well-Known Member

xwalker

Well-Known Member

CalPolyTechnique

Well-Known Member

kskboys

Well-Known Member

Zekeats

theranchsucks

Diehardblues

Well-Known Member

baltcowboy

Well-Known Member