NFL's top 11 offenses in 2022? Bills, Chargers, Bengals produce highest win projections

Acceptablename said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-top-...-chargers-and-bengals-produce-highest-win-sha

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8
Dallas Cowboys
My models are bearish on Dallas' offensive line. Last season, the Cowboys used six or more offensive linemen at the fourth-highest rate (8.7 percent of snaps, per NGS), yet Dak Prescott averaged a career-low 2.75 seconds to throw and tossed quick passes at his highest rate in the past three seasons (42.1%). The quick throws (under 2.5 seconds) did work to help him escape pressure -- as evidenced by his career-low 28.9 pressure rate -- and drove a career-high 107.7 passer rating on short passes (fourth in the NFL). He also ran away from would-be pressure and earned a 116.8 passer rating when on the move (best in NFL among qualified QBs). However, this shows how Dak overcame adversity, which will likely be what's required again this season. When Dak does have time, great things happen (SEE: his career-high 110.0 passer rating throwing outside the numbers in 2021, the fourth-best mark in the NFL).



Losing Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson will be difficult to overcome, but the sum of CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard remains imposing.



For your fantasy prep: Schultz had seven receiving TDs when aligned tight over the past two seasons, tied for most in that time. Oh, and Lamb? He had +156 yards after the catch over expected in 2021, which was tied for fourth in the NFL.

8 seems about right RIGHT NOW just based on last year.

Although once the season gets in full swing I see us dropping closer to the middle of the pack.

Techsass said:

8
Dallas Cowboys
My models are bearish on Dallas' offensive line. Last season, the Cowboys used six or more offensive linemen at the fourth-highest rate (8.7 percent of snaps, per NGS), yet Dak Prescott averaged a career-low 2.75 seconds to throw and tossed quick passes at his highest rate in the past three seasons (42.1%). The quick throws (under 2.5 seconds) did work to help him escape pressure -- as evidenced by his career-low 28.9 pressure rate -- and drove a career-high 107.7 passer rating on short passes (fourth in the NFL). He also ran away from would-be pressure and earned a 116.8 passer rating when on the move (best in NFL among qualified QBs). However, this shows how Dak overcame adversity, which will likely be what's required again this season. When Dak does have time, great things happen (SEE: his career-high 110.0 passer rating throwing outside the numbers in 2021, the fourth-best mark in the NFL).



Losing Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson will be difficult to overcome, but the sum of CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard remains imposing.



For your fantasy prep: Schultz had seven receiving TDs when aligned tight over the past two seasons, tied for most in that time. Oh, and Lamb? He had +156 yards after the catch over expected in 2021, which was tied for fourth in the NFL.

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So an outside expert is concerned about our Oline as well?
Hope Dak's ankle has healed because their is a good chance he will be running for his life again.
Free Agent Olinemen? we dont need no stinkin free agent Olinemen !

With the injury disclaimer and rookie contribution I see getting better as season goes along. Normal progression

Acceptablename said:

With the injury disclaimer and rookie contribution I see getting better as season goes along. Normal progression

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Hope you are right!
I know Dak does !

I’m not actually that concerned about the O-line. I mean it’s not The Great Wall but it should be decent. We’ve got three 1st rounders (two of them perennial all-pro vets) and the other two are basically 3rd year starters.

I’m more worried about the passing options and DT position. We don’t have Boyd, Higgins, and Chase as WR targets like the Bengals, or anything close to Van Jefferson, OBJ, and Kupp.

At DT the Rams have Aaron Donald while Bengals have 14m per season DJ Reader and 10m per season BJ Hill. I can’t think of us having had a DT on significantly more than vet minimum in the last decade. Crawford maybe but he was more of a LDE IMO, and then a couple of disasterous flops in McCoy and Poe. That underinvestment has and likely will continue to hurt our performances IMO.

DanA said:

I’m not actually that concerned about the O-line. I mean it’s not The Great Wall but it should be decent. We’ve got three 1st rounders (two of them perennial all-pro vets) and the other two are basically 3rd year starters.

I’m more worried about the passing options and DT position. We don’t have Boyd, Higgins, and Chase as WR targets like the Bengals, or anything close to Van Jefferson, OBJ, and Kupp.

At DT the Rams have Aaron Donald while Bengals have 14m per season DJ Reader and 10m per season BJ Hill. I can’t think of us having had a DT on significantly more than vet minimum in the last decade. Crawford maybe but he was more of a LDE IMO, and then a couple of disasterous flops in McCoy and Poe. That underinvestment has and likely will continue to hurt our performances IMO.

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I guess they're hoping the ones we have will step up. Gallimore, Hill, that Diggy dude, Osa is it? And a bunch of others. Also the rookie. But who knows if or when he might have an impact. Osa flashed a little last year.

If they're wrong, the better teams will just kill us on the ground.

I get it, the Cowboys lost Cooper, Connor Williams, and La'el Collins so there should be some drop-off from last year. But this offense revolves around Dak. When Dak is at the top of his game, which appears to be the first half of every season, I don't think it matters that Cooper will not be in the lineup. The reason is because Dak at his best is moving the ball around to a lot of different receivers. He is making quick decisions and good throws.

Last year when Collins was out, the offense was rocking and rolling. But again, Dak was playing his best football.

I have concerns about Tyler Smith, but I also think he will not be worse than Connor Williams even in his rookie year.

A lot of things have to go right for the Cowboys to be as good as they were in 2021, but I think their offense will be better than expected - if Dak plays well.

btw, the Rams lost two starters from their OL, why is this not a concern for them the way the Cowboys OL is such a concern?

Creeper said:

btw, the Rams lost two starters from their OL, why is this not a concern for them the way the Cowboys OL is such a concern?

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Double standards as usual for some.

Creeper said:

I get it, the Cowboys lost Cooper, Connor Williams, and La'el Collins so there should be some drop-off from last year. But this offense revolves around Dak. When Dak is at the top of his game, which appears to be the first half of every season, I don't think it matters that Cooper will not be in the lineup. The reason is because Dak at his best is moving the ball around to a lot of different receivers. He is making quick decisions and good throws.

Last year when Collins was out, the offense was rocking and rolling. But again, Dak was playing his best football.

I have concerns about Tyler Smith, but I also think he will not be worse than Connor Williams even in his rookie year.

A lot of things have to go right for the Cowboys to be as good as they were in 2021, but I think their offense will be better than expected - if Dak plays well.

btw, the Rams lost two starters from their OL, why is this not a concern for them the way the Cowboys OL is such a concern?

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Agree that a lot of things will have to go just right for the Offense to be as good as last years.

jazzcat22 said:

Double standards as usual for some.

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Not at all, I am not a Rams fan, so what they do or don't do matters little to me.
What the other teams in the division do matters a little.
What the Cowboys do/don't do matters a lot.

jazzcat22 said:

Double standards as usual for some.

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All Cowboys , all the time.
The rest of the NFL, could not care less.
Don't watch any other games than the Cowboys,
including all other sports.

Techsass said:

8
Dallas Cowboys
My models are bearish on Dallas' offensive line. Last season, the Cowboys used six or more offensive linemen at the fourth-highest rate (8.7 percent of snaps, per NGS), yet Dak Prescott averaged a career-low 2.75 seconds to throw and tossed quick passes at his highest rate in the past three seasons (42.1%). The quick throws (under 2.5 seconds) did work to help him escape pressure -- as evidenced by his career-low 28.9 pressure rate -- and drove a career-high 107.7 passer rating on short passes (fourth in the NFL). He also ran away from would-be pressure and earned a 116.8 passer rating when on the move (best in NFL among qualified QBs). However, this shows how Dak overcame adversity, which will likely be what's required again this season. When Dak does have time, great things happen (SEE: his career-high 110.0 passer rating throwing outside the numbers in 2021, the fourth-best mark in the NFL).



Losing Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson will be difficult to overcome, but the sum of CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard remains imposing.



For your fantasy prep: Schultz had seven receiving TDs when aligned tight over the past two seasons, tied for most in that time. Oh, and Lamb? He had +156 yards after the catch over expected in 2021, which was tied for fourth in the NFL.

Click to expand...

Lamb and Shultz are going to have big fantasy years. Dak as well.

I'm not worried about our offense. Those guys will find a way to get it done. Our defense got a lot of turnovers last year. I'm not expecting all of those turnovers this year and that's going to be our biggest problem... Getting stops.

There is, what seems to be, a common belief that a players performance from one season to the next remains relatively unchanged. However the one area on a football team that defies this belief the most is the offensive line.

The more an offensive line plays together and the more an O-lineman gains experience, the more they improve.

Recall that the Cowboys offensive line of the 90's included an undrafted free agent that actually started his career out as a DT. He even has a recorded NFL sack. Mark Tuinei got his 1st start in his 4th season. He made his first pro Bowl in his 12th seaspm.

Nate Newton, another undrafted free agent used to be famous for his weight and weight loss was actually ordered for him by Landry. Jimmy Johnson didn't care, so long as he kept working hard during games. It took seven seasons for Nate to make his first Pro Bowl, the first of six Pro Bowls to go along with his two 1st team All Pro and three starts in Super Bowls,

One of the Super Bowl 27 starters on the offensive line was former 10th round pick John Gesek who graduated from Diablo Valley College. Mark Stepnoski was their undersized center.

It took several seasons for these guys to build their careers, these undrafted rookie free agents as well as those low draft picks that would have been rookie free agents in today's NFL.

My point is, don't give up on Biadasz. The light could turn on for him at any moment this season.

Offense is great, and important, but look at our last 2 playoff losses - the opponent ran the ball down our throats. You still have to stop the run in the playoffs.

8 seems about right. The first half of the season seems toughest, so barring serious injury, it should rise by November or so.