Aerolithe_Lion
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All in for DK Metcalf
Rich mentions in the video that Green Bay seems like a great fit, but it’s so out of character for them that it’s not even worth entertaining. I would argue the same for Dallas, even with them doing it with Cooper. This is incomparable for 2 reasons:
1. Dallas was a flailing Team midseason in 2019 when they made a desperation play. It’s currently June when everyone is wearing rose-colored glasses, there are 32 future SB winners, and Jerry thinks his team has the best WR corps in the NFL, probably. The mindset of “we need” is not on the table.
2. The value in Amari was that you didn’t have to pay him as soon as the trade went through. You didn’t even need to pay him at the end of the season. You had 2 years of rookie contract status before it came up. To trade for DK and then immediately sign him to the biggest non-QB deal Dallas has ever given out? Before you even see how he meshes with the offense, with Dak? That’s a very different scenario. Dallas doesn’t give that kind of money out to outside players. Not since Brandon Carr. Amari was on the roster for nearly 20 Months before you made that call. He was already a Cowboy through and through.
But let’s say Dallas does do it. What would it take? Here, we again have 2 points to consider:
1. DK Metcalf’s best comp in the entire NFL is… probably his college teammate, AJ Brown. They came out the same year, same age, and their stats are oddly close, with the exception of AJ missing some games due to injury giving DK a bit of a lead in TDs. AJ is a bit better as a possession receiver as well as in the redzone, though DK is very good at these things as well. AJ has better hands & Metcalf is bigger, but Metcalf has good hands too and AJ and is also very physical. Metcalf is faster, and is the better deep threat, but AJ also ran a sub-4.5 40 and actually has 50% more career catches over 40 yards and higher career YPC, despite having the inferior QB… but then again DK has missed fewer games. They’re pretty close.
Also, conveniently, AJ was just traded! So we have a template for DK’s value. A 1st and a 3rd, slightly less than a Davante Adams or a Tyreek Hill.
2. One major snare here: we’re still fresh off the draft. That means all picks traded are not quite full value, they’re “future assets.” Rule of thumb was that trading a pick a year in advance reduces its value by a round. I don’t believe this is as true in June as it was in April, because Seattle is stuck trading him for the best offer… and no one is going to offer that much for DK (multiple 1’s to accommodate future pick value).
But I do still think it’ll be more than AJ….
Would you trade a 2023 1st, 3rd, and 2024 3rd for DK Metcalf right now?
Rich mentions in the video that Green Bay seems like a great fit, but it’s so out of character for them that it’s not even worth entertaining. I would argue the same for Dallas, even with them doing it with Cooper. This is incomparable for 2 reasons:
1. Dallas was a flailing Team midseason in 2019 when they made a desperation play. It’s currently June when everyone is wearing rose-colored glasses, there are 32 future SB winners, and Jerry thinks his team has the best WR corps in the NFL, probably. The mindset of “we need” is not on the table.
2. The value in Amari was that you didn’t have to pay him as soon as the trade went through. You didn’t even need to pay him at the end of the season. You had 2 years of rookie contract status before it came up. To trade for DK and then immediately sign him to the biggest non-QB deal Dallas has ever given out? Before you even see how he meshes with the offense, with Dak? That’s a very different scenario. Dallas doesn’t give that kind of money out to outside players. Not since Brandon Carr. Amari was on the roster for nearly 20 Months before you made that call. He was already a Cowboy through and through.
But let’s say Dallas does do it. What would it take? Here, we again have 2 points to consider:
1. DK Metcalf’s best comp in the entire NFL is… probably his college teammate, AJ Brown. They came out the same year, same age, and their stats are oddly close, with the exception of AJ missing some games due to injury giving DK a bit of a lead in TDs. AJ is a bit better as a possession receiver as well as in the redzone, though DK is very good at these things as well. AJ has better hands & Metcalf is bigger, but Metcalf has good hands too and AJ and is also very physical. Metcalf is faster, and is the better deep threat, but AJ also ran a sub-4.5 40 and actually has 50% more career catches over 40 yards and higher career YPC, despite having the inferior QB… but then again DK has missed fewer games. They’re pretty close.
Also, conveniently, AJ was just traded! So we have a template for DK’s value. A 1st and a 3rd, slightly less than a Davante Adams or a Tyreek Hill.
2. One major snare here: we’re still fresh off the draft. That means all picks traded are not quite full value, they’re “future assets.” Rule of thumb was that trading a pick a year in advance reduces its value by a round. I don’t believe this is as true in June as it was in April, because Seattle is stuck trading him for the best offer… and no one is going to offer that much for DK (multiple 1’s to accommodate future pick value).
But I do still think it’ll be more than AJ….
Would you trade a 2023 1st, 3rd, and 2024 3rd for DK Metcalf right now?
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