https://nflcommunications.com/Documents/2018 Policies/2018 Personal Conduct Policy.pdf
NFL PERSONAL CONDUCT POLICY
League Policies for Players
2018
"...
Following review, the Commissioner, either directly or through a member of his staff, will communicate his decision to the player regarding any disciplinary action to be taken. Depending on the nature of the violation and the player’s record, discipline may be a fine, a suspension for a fixed or an indefinite period of time, a combination of the two, or banishment from the league with an opportunity to reapply...
With regard to violations of the Personal Conduct Policy that involve: (i) criminal assault or battery (felony); (ii) domestic violence, dating violence, child abuse and other forms of family violence; or (iii) sexual assault involving physical force or committed against someone incapable of giving consent, a first offense will subject the offender to a baseline suspension without pay of six games, with consideration given to any aggravating or mitigating factors. The presence of possible aggravating factors may warrant a longer suspension. Possible aggravating factors include, but are not limited to, a prior violation of the Personal Conduct Policy, similar misconduct before joining the NFL, violence involving a weapon, choking, repeated striking, or when an act is committed against a particularly vulnerable person, such as a child, a pregnant woman, or an elderly person, or where the act is committed in the presence of a child. A second offense will result in permanent banishment from the NFL. An individual who has been banished may petition for reinstatement after one year, but there is no presumption or assurance that the petition will be granted..."
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Without question, Watson will get six games. The real question is how many more games will he miss?
As always, policy gives Goodell leeway in discipline enforcement. Another consideration is policy making a slight differentiation between
criminal and non-criminal (i.e. civil) definitions.
Watson was hit with several dozen
civil lawsuits. If-and-until Watson gets indicted for criminal charges (which failed last March), Goodell can justify his disciplinary actions as severe but 'fair'. That takes permanent banishment (subject to automatic appeal) off the table and rests 'fixed or indefinite period of time' squarely on top of it.
No public relations blitz can dismiss the large number of civil lawsuits. It is nothing Goodell can do about that. Any suspension less than one year will not be seen as 'severe enough'.
Two years or more will create even more attention since enough of the Browns fanbase will be publicly voicing their discontent with their quarterback situation remaining unresolved. Media coverage would re-ignite negatively, perhaps too strongly, and that is the LAST thing Goodell would want.
In my opinion, the disciplinary compromise will fall between one and two years. The league's black eye will have recovered by the Super Bowl. Cleveland's front office will have accurately projected how events would play out given the information they had obtained themselves. The only public 'outrage' will be directed at Goodell during the late April draft with the same moronic booing-and-hissing he has received for practically his entire tenure it seems (which only makes the owners want to make him even richer lol). Watson will return for OTA's. Then minicamp. Then first training camp. The NFL may schedule his 2023 team's first couple of games early Sundays. No primetime. No Thursdays. His first late game Sunday or primetime game will not be promo blitzed by the network broadcasting the game. And Watson will finally trot out under the big lights for the first time, probably without much public protest inside or outside the stadium.
Well. That is how I see it all playing out.