CFZ Even the Pre-season “experts” almost never correctly predict SB Winner

Bobhaze said:

NFL Preseason predictions are usually very unreliable. The so called experts from all the major football media outlets are usually wrong in their pre-season predictions of who will win the SB. Why is that?

Because the NFL is THE most unpredictable of all the pro sports leagues. I put very little stock in almost all preseason predictions. Look at some of the predictions done by some of the big NFL media outlets and their writers the past two seasons, then realize this- no one knows.

PAST TWO SEASONS SB PREDICTIONS:
2021 Predictions

• Sports illustrated- picked GB to beat Buffalo in the SB. Neither made the SB.
• ESPN- predicted the Chiefs would beat the Bucs in a rematch. Didn’t happen.
• PFF- also predicted a rematch of chiefs and bucs but had the Bucs repeating.
• CBS Sports- predicted the Bills would beat the Bucs or the Pack.

2020 Predictions

• Sports Illustrated- picked the Ravens to beat the Saints in SB LV. (The Bucs beat the chiefs)
• ESPN- picked the chiefs to beat the Cowboys! (Sadly, we didn’t make the playoffs)
• PFF- picked the chiefs to beat the saints.
• CBS Sports- their writers did not have a consensus but picked either the ravens, colts, chiefs or Cowboys to beat either the pack, ravens, Seahawks, Cowboys, or chiefs.

Simple truth here: NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. AND THAT MAKES IT FUN!
Who will win SB LVII? No one has a clue.

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Another reason they are wrong so often is that very few have the cajones to pick a surprise team. They almost always pick the same teams that were in the previous year, save picks. And maybe there is another team or two which is also popular for picking. But it usually ends up being a team that few pick.

This year you will hear a lot of Rams and Bengals being picked along with some Chargers, Bills and Buccaneers. We will also get some Browns IF Watson plays and Ravens IF Jackson is healthy picks.

Those people aren't experts they are just people who report sports news.

jazzcat22 said:

Cowboys - Bengals SB
That is my prediction.

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You have about the same odds of being right as the experts

BEING a fan makes it hard to analyze the teams and what they did in draft and FA acquisition.
so I dont even try. you can only base part of it on what they did last year.

you can predict contenders / playoff teams.
same teams as last year, with maybe a couple new ones.

Even experts can't predict things like last years Bengals or the 2017 Eagles. It really seems like camaraderie can't be predicted by anyone.

Rams weren’t a hard choice, I just think everyone was scared to go all in on Stafford. Bengals came out of nowhere, someone will do it again. We came out of nowhere last year but by midseason everyone was picking us to win a Super Bowl. Just want to fly under the radar for once, underrated and disrespected every week.

VaqueroTD said:

Rams weren’t a hard choice, I just think everyone was scared to go all in on Stafford. Bengals came out of nowhere, someone will do it again. We came out of nowhere last year but by midseason everyone was picking us to win a Super Bowl. Just want to fly under the radar for once, underrated and disrespected every week.

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It's hard to "fly under the radar" when you are the number one followed franchise in any of our 4 major sports. Dallas will make headlines even if the rolled out a 2-15 team.

Pro football is, and always has been, a tough thing to predict in the offseason. There are too many variables to accurately predict SB winners this early. It's easy for athletes to have injuries in the offseason that might go relatively unnoticed. This year is no different from the rest.

Some players will often get out of condition, as well. We'll all see how things pan out when the time comes. Right now, it's anyone's guess who might win the SB and who won't. Yet, speculation always prevails anyway. Perhaps, it's just a break from offseason boredom.

I'm hoping it's Bills/Cowboys but it will probably be Bills/Rams. However, when I'm not watching the Cowboys this season I will be watching the AFC West. That will be a fun division to watch with Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, and Carr.

Motorola said:

The 2019 49ers come to mind-
13-3, 1st place NFC West, NFC Champions ....to 6-10, bottom of division in 2020 due to their many injuries.

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That's the most obvious. But what made them go from 6-10 in 2018 to 13-3 NFC champions in 2019?

Bobhaze said:

NFL Preseason predictions are usually very unreliable. The so called experts from all the major football media outlets are usually wrong in their pre-season predictions of who will win the SB. Why is that?

Because the NFL is THE most unpredictable of all the pro sports leagues. I put very little stock in almost all preseason predictions. Look at some of the predictions done by some of the big NFL media outlets and their writers the past two seasons, then realize this- no one knows.

PAST TWO SEASONS SB PREDICTIONS:
2021 Predictions

• Sports illustrated- picked GB to beat Buffalo in the SB. Neither made the SB.
• ESPN- predicted the Chiefs would beat the Bucs in a rematch. Didn’t happen.
• PFF- also predicted a rematch of chiefs and bucs but had the Bucs repeating.
• CBS Sports- predicted the Bills would beat the Bucs or the Pack.

2020 Predictions

• Sports Illustrated- picked the Ravens to beat the Saints in SB LV. (The Bucs beat the chiefs)
• ESPN- picked the chiefs to beat the Cowboys! (Sadly, we didn’t make the playoffs)
• PFF- picked the chiefs to beat the saints.
• CBS Sports- their writers did not have a consensus but picked either the ravens, colts, chiefs or Cowboys to beat either the pack, ravens, Seahawks, Cowboys, or chiefs.

Simple truth here: NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. AND THAT MAKES IT FUN!
Who will win SB LVII? No one has a clue.

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True even after the regular season is over, Half of the teams considered to have the best regular season and regarded as the favorite to win the Super Bowl end up losing along the way.

I ranked each team each season according to a formula that included their record in combination with their rankings in both offense and defensive categories in yards and points as well as turnover differential and and there were so many 1st place teams that didn't even make it past the divisional round. You cannot discount some elements of bad luck like injuries, poor officiating and just unfortunate bounces of the ball. There is also overconfidence or poor preparation or insufficient intensity.

Some of the most epic fails for #1 ranked teams in a season was the Rams and Vikings in the 70's, the Patriots a few times in the 2010's, and the 49ers in the early 90's.

In 1973 the Rams were 12-2 and ranked #1 both defensively and offensively in points as well as #1 in offensive yards and turnover margin. The Cowboys beat them in the divisional round that year.

Remember Roger's Hail Mary game? That season the Vikings were the #1 seed while the Cowboys were a wildcard team. The Vikings were 12-2 and ranked in the top 3 in every category. They most likely would have won the Super Bowl that season but one last desperation pass changed all that.

Look at some of the major surprises throughout the history of the Super Bowl. Did anybody expect Eli and teh Giants to be there much less win against an undefeated team? How many predicted the Eagles to win their Super Bowl

jazzcat22 said:

Cowboys - Bengals SB
That is my prediction.

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You mean on Madden, right?

Flamma said:

That's the most obvious. But what made them go from 6-10 in 2018 to 13-3 NFC champions in 2019?

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Easy.

1. Garroppolo played only 3 games. Mullens and Beathard are not NFL starting quality.
2. D added Nick Bosa

Acheman08 said:

You mean on Madden, right?

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No.
I don’t do fake football.

I bought the Lindy's Magazine this past weekend.

It says we finish behind the Eagles but make the playoffs as a Wildcard.

This frightens me since they have nailed it, every single year, since I started buying the mags as a child.

Alexander said:

I bought the Lindy's Magazine this past weekend.

It says we finish behind the Eagles but make the playoffs as a Wildcard.

This frightens me since they have nailed it, every single year, since I started buying the mags as a child.

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No one gets it right all the time, but Lindy's is a dammm good read.

john van brocklin said:

Well the most historically safe pick is that the Cowboys won't be in the SB.
We have not even been to a NFCC in 26 years.

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I'm pretty sure the Bengals just went 30 years without even a single playoff win. So historically they actually would have been the safest pick

Jstopper said:

I'm pretty sure the Bengals just went 30 years without even a single playoff win. So historically they actually would have been the safest pick

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What did Jerry say?
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally.
I kid you not!

kskboys said:

Easy.

1. Garroppolo played only 3 games. Mullens and Beathard are not NFL starting quality.
2. D added Nick Bosa

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In hindsight I would day you're right. But no one picked them. Even people in here were saying their good start was because they played wreak teams. That they would soon come back to earth. They were just parroting what they heard on ESPN or NFL network.

Alexander said:

I bought the Lindy's Magazine this past weekend.

It says we finish behind the Eagles but make the playoffs as a Wildcard.

This frightens me since they have nailed it, every single year, since I started buying the mags as a child.

Click to expand...

kskboys said:

No one gets it right all the time, but Lindy's is a dammm good read.

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I don't know how many magazines are around today still. But back in the 80's and 90's, seemed to be quite a few, at least 6 to 8. If you counted the college editions you could spend a small fortune if you bought all the different published copies.
I always bought The Sporting News, and Lindy's, but not every year Lindy's. I probably had copies from 1982 to late 90's. Not sure what happened to them.

I will need to run to Barnes and Nobles now to take a look. I have not bought one of any publisher in over 20 years. Heck. the last time I bought a newspaper was 20 years ago.
I used to stand in the grocery stores and read the ones I did not buy, well, read the Cowboys articles while my wife did the shopping.