CFZ What if: No kicker on game day

And then when we keep going for it and don't make it, Dak will get blamed. lol We need a kicker.

xwalker said:

What if the Cowboys didn't carry a kicker?
- Either go for it on 4th or punt.
- 2 point conversions after TDs.
- Punter that can kick off.

Statistics indicate that teams would come out ahead in the long run with this approach.

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Interessting. Post them please.

And please define "in the long run".

Here's an interesting article on 4th down conversions.

Piggybacking off my earlier point, the success rate we see for 4th down conversions has a selection bias, in that most 4th down attempts are in favorable distances. Coaches across the board are more inclined to go for 4th and 1 than 4th and 8, for example.

Haimerej said:

Here's an interesting article on 4th down conversions.

Piggybacking off my earlier point, the success rate we see for 4th down conversions has a selection bias, in that most 4th down attempts are in favorable distances. Coaches across the board are more inclined to go for 4th and 1 than 4th and 8, for example.

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Good point. I remember that Rams game a couple of years back. McVay went for it on 4th and goal, and they got the TD to put the dagger in. I was so hoping for a field goal in that scenario (I don't remember the score at the time) but it ended the game essentially. Field position obviously matters too. The thinking at the time was if they don't make it, the Cowboys have to drive the field to score.

RustyBourneHorse said:

Exactly, or any of the kickers from there or other country's leagues. Surely they could be better than what we've got. Also, Stephen would love how they'd probably take league min to prove that they belong in the NFL.

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If the band Journey can find a lead singer from the Philippines… surely Dallas can find a kicker in Japan, right?

Haimerej said:

Here's an interesting article on 4th down conversions.

Piggybacking off my earlier point, the success rate we see for 4th down conversions has a selection bias, in that most 4th down attempts are in favorable distances. Coaches across the board are more inclined to go for 4th and 1 than 4th and 8, for example.

Click to expand...

Yep yep.

A downpour of sixes and twos, all day.

Not having a competent kicker for Week 1 would be like the cherry on top of the banana split for this off season, wouldn't it? It would be an absolute and inexcusable fail on the part of the front office that is sitting on $22 million in CAP space.

AsthmaField said:

If the band Journey can find a lead singer from the Philippines… surely Dallas can find a kicker in Japan, right?

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And I think I found one in Sato. He was on my radar a couple years ago when we had Maher along with a kicker by the name of Yamasaki. I like what I've seen with Sato. Plus, Jerry could get endless revenue from Japan if Sato ends up being a solid kicker for us. He'd get a Stephen blue light special, and tons of revenue from Japan.

PA Cowboy Fan said:

And then when we keep going for it and don't make it, Dak will get blamed. lol We need a kicker.

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Who do I need to email within the Cowboys organisation about recommending and showing highlights about Sato? Surely this is a year to explore different options for kicker, and I think Sato would be exactly what Jerry wants.

RustyBourneHorse said:

And I think I found one in Sato. He was on my radar a couple years ago when we had Maher along with a kicker by the name of Yamasaki. I like what I've seen with Sato. Plus, Jerry could get endless revenue from Japan if Sato ends up being a solid kicker for us. He'd get a Stephen blue light special, and tons of revenue from Japan.

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I’m down with giving him a shot…

plymkr said:

Going for it on 4th down and getting the 1st is a major emotional/momentum swing. Also not converting is a momentum swing against you. I feel the 50-40 yard line is a good place to take a chance. I wouldn't be a fan of going for it every 4th down but I would like to see some more chances when a punt would only gain 20 yards of field position and it's too long for a FG.

The OP mentioned a high school coach. I remember seeing a mini documentary about him or a special on ESPN about him. It was interesting. His going no punt offense kept the defense off balance because the defense was used to only playing for 3 downs. It was a psychological thing and it worked for him. I don't know if it would work in the pros but it was interesting.

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The coach is from Arkansas
He inside kicks every kickoff
He uses 3-4 kickers who all have a special kick and he gets the onside kick nearly half the time
The goes on 4th every time no matter the field position
But that’s High School and not a league filled with elite athletes and players who have been playing for half their life
Being more aggressive around mid field I like
Going for two is really not as high a risk as it appears
You only half to make half of them to be even and anything over half is a plus
But even then I think you pick the right teams to do it against
One big key to be successful on 2 points is the run game. If you are beating up a team with the run they will load up to defend the run giving you a mismatch somewhere
I like taking some chances but I think you can gamble too much

AsthmaField said:

I’m down with giving him a shot…

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Yup, I just need to figure out how to send some info about him to Will McClay.

RustyBourneHorse said:

Why do you think I've been plugging kickers from the Japanese X-League for years? They'd be better than what we've got ATM, and they'd be super blue light specials for Stephen.

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Are these guys any good?

Pass2Run said:

Are these guys any good?

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Can't be worse than our group. Here's some highlights that he uploaded:

xwalker said:

What if the Cowboys didn't carry a kicker?
- Either go for it on 4th or punt.
- 2 point conversions after TDs.
- Punter that can kick off.

Statistics indicate that teams would come out ahead in the long run with this approach.
- A high school coach made headlines a few years ago for always going for it on 4th down.
- Not sure if that was literally always, or if it was restricted to being on the favorable side of the 50 yard line.

A failed field goal is place at the spot of the kick.
- That's ~8 yards behind the line.

With the method I listed, they have the option to punt.
- If they are so close that punting into the endzone does not gain much, then failing by going for it does not lose much.

I think defenses and D-Coordinators would have that an offense always has 4 downs to convert.
- Envision all of the times the Cowboys made a big stop on 3rd down, then the opponent converted on 4th.
- I always want to opponent to punt in those situations.

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That's kind of a problem using stats and analytics, it doesn't mean those parameters and variables apply and even correct and when to apply them when they are favorable. Longer distances will be harder to convert. I have read a couple in-depth studies about converting 4th and long, but the actual data pool is so small they used conversion rates for 3rd and long(dismissing end of half stats), but that is faulty from the get. Situations are drastically different.

The relative strength of each team and unit. Against a poor team/defense we may get 9/10 conversions but against a good defense we end up with 1/10. The end of year stats may look like 50%, but that doesn't apply to every situation. Those variables are not the same, they are weighted. Did we really need a 90% conversion rate to beat that bad team? Probably not and it skewed the stats, but we can't afford to leave a lot of short fields to better teams. We might get a 50% conversion rate against the Jags, but we aren't against the Rams defense. The ones we fail against the Jags won't hurt us as much as those against the Rams either.

Injuries and weather conditions are factors and not usually well addressed with many of these type studies.

Analytics work better in a sport like baseball, larger data pool and less variables. They play 10 times as many games and if you lose a game to someone bucking a trend, it's not nearly as costly. There's also less variables involved, it's more mano a mano, how does X player hit versus a RHP or even that particular pitcher. For the hitter it doesn't matter what the rest of his team is doing. In football it's 11 on 11, all it takes is one guy to miss an assignment. A lot more moving parts to go wrong.

In general, NFL coaches could probably be more aggressive, but they have to know when to apply those percentages.

Sure go for it. Cant be any worse than these 2 bums we have in camp

It's an interesting thought but something working at the HS level is about as applicable to the NFL as the triangle offense in the NBA. I think you'd ultimately see a team "green light" their defense to inflict injury. It's one of those "unwritten rules" that you don't try to showboat and embarrass the other team when they're behind. Provided it worked, that's essentially what you'd be doing.

xwalker said:

What if the Cowboys didn't carry a kicker?
- Either go for it on 4th or punt.
- 2 point conversions after TDs.
- Punter that can kick off.

Statistics indicate that teams would come out ahead in the long run with this approach.
- A high school coach made headlines a few years ago for always going for it on 4th down.
- Not sure if that was literally always, or if it was restricted to being on the favorable side of the 50 yard line.

A failed field goal is place at the spot of the kick.
- That's ~8 yards behind the line.

With the method I listed, they have the option to punt.
- If they are so close that punting into the endzone does not gain much, then failing by going for it does not lose much.

I think defenses and D-Coordinators would have that an offense always has 4 downs to convert.
- Envision all of the times the Cowboys made a big stop on 3rd down, then the opponent converted on 4th.
- I always want to opponent to punt in those situations.

Click to expand...

I dunna care much for the punt returner. We should go without one.

Jeff Heath, anyone?