The Division

Clarkson · Oct 23, 2017

We are not even close to out of the running.

The Eagles are 5-1. They haven't beaten a single good team outside of maybe Washington (disclaimer: neither have we. But keep reading). Their signature win so far is against the Panthers, who looked worse vs. Chicago than vs. Philly. That team stinks, Newton is wild with the football. Had about 25 should-be picks in that game. The Eagles offense wasn't particularly good, but got set up inside the red zone twice due to turnovers. If they have to drive the ball 75+ yards consistently, I don't think they can do it. Or, they haven't been able to yet. The one good team they've played, the Chiefs, handled them with ease. I think they're being massively overrated right now, but we'll see.

If the Skins win tonight, they move to 4-2. We'll be a half game behind them, and 1.5 back from the Eagles. We still have 2 games vs each of them left. I have a little doubt we're a better team than Washington, but we still need to execute.

The Gia...never mind.

My point is, neither team ahead of us is clearly superior. I'm confident the Eagles aren't one of the best teams in the league.

Jake · Oct 23, 2017

I'd like to see the Skins win tonight. I feel dirty for even typing that, but it's true in this case.

Idgit · Oct 23, 2017

It'd be great if ge Skins could pull one out. Wish Norman were playing tonight.

JD_KaPow · Oct 23, 2017

The loss column is all that matters. We're two losses behind the Eagles with two games to go against the Eagles. So we control our own destiny. Not a lot of margin for error, but it's not like they'll win out either.

Sydla · Oct 23, 2017

I think if the Cowboys want a chance at the division, the Skins need to win tonight IMO.

If the Eagles win, that gives them a 3-0 record in the division and a sweep over the Skins. With an Eagles win you are probably looking at the Cowboys having to sweep and then some help from that stretch of the Eagles schedule where they play @SEA, @Rams and then two weeks later, home against the Raiders before playing us.

jwooten15 · Oct 23, 2017

If we play up to our standards and the offensive line keeps paving a path, there's no reason that we shouldn't still be able to win the division.

Even if Zeke has to sit out for 6 games, our offense is going to put up points.

aikemirv · Oct 23, 2017

Clarkson said:
We are not even close to out of the running.

The Eagles are 5-1. They haven't beaten a single good team outside of maybe Washington (disclaimer: neither have we. But keep reading). Their signature win so far is against the Panthers, who looked worse vs. Chicago than vs. Philly. That team stinks, Newton is wild with the football. Had about 25 should-be picks in that game. The Eagles offense wasn't particularly good, but got set up inside the red zone twice due to turnovers. If they have to drive the ball 75+ yards consistently, I don't think they can do it. Or, they haven't been able to yet. The one good team they've played, the Chiefs, handled them with ease. I think they're being massively overrated right now, but we'll see.

If the Skins win tonight, they move to 4-2. We'll be a half game behind them, and 1.5 back from the Eagles. We still have 2 games vs each of them left. I have a little doubt we're a better team than Washington, but we still need to execute.

The Gia...never mind.

My point is, neither team ahead of us is clearly superior. I'm confident the Eagles aren't one of the best teams in the league.

If Skins win tonight then 2-2 will keep us in the hunt over the next 4 games if we beat Phlly with one of those 2.

If Skins don't win then we need 3-1 over the next 4 weeks to be even close as long as we beat Philly.

Idgit · Oct 23, 2017

Sydla said:
I think if the Cowboys want a chance at the division, the Skins need to win tonight IMO.

If the Eagles win, that gives them a 3-0 record in the division and a sweep over the Skins. With an Eagles win you are probably looking at the Cowboys having to sweep and then some help from that stretch of the Eagles schedule where they play @SEA, @Rams and then two weeks later, home against the Raiders before playing us.

If we've got the head-head, it doesn't matter where the other PHI losses come from. Division win % will matter, though, if we split with the Eagles and they end up dropping two more games than we do the rest of the way.

You want the division leader to come back to the pack, but they still have to beat the Giants again, as well. As nice as a Commanders loss would be, it's not essential for our division hopes.

Idgit · Oct 23, 2017

aikemirv said:
If Skins win tonight then 2-2 will keep us in the hunt over the next 4 games if we beat Phlly with one of those 2.

If Skins don't win then we need 3-1 over the next 4 weeks to be even close as long as we beat Philly.

A Skins loss just puts more pressure on us for sweeping PHI. Which sucks, because I think we're going to have trouble with them, the way their team is put together.

It'd be great to see them cough up a division game here.

Sydla · Oct 23, 2017

Idgit said:
If we've got the head-head, it doesn't matter where the other PHI losses come from. Division win % will matter, though, if we split with the Eagles and they end up dropping two more games than we do the rest of the way.

You want the division leader to come back to the pack, but they still have to beat the Giants again, as well. As nice as a Commanders loss would be, it's not essential for our division hopes.

Who said anything about specific losses? I am just looking at their schedule and looking for the toughest stretch and where, most likely, their other losses could come from.

Even is we sweep, I suspect we'll lose a game or two elsewhere, so we will need the Eagles to lose some games outside of our two games somewhere else.

Tonight is a very important game for our divisional hopes. For one, it gives us some hope even if we split with the Eagles. If we split and the Eagles lose to the Skins, the best they could be in the division is 4-2, and we could be 5-1. So we'd have the leg up in a tie there too.

Idgit · Oct 23, 2017

Sydla said:
Who said anything about specific losses? I am just looking at their schedule and looking for the toughest stretch and where, most likely, their other losses could come from.

Even is we sweep, I suspect we'll lose a game or two elsewhere, so we will need the Eagles to lose some games outside of our two games somewhere else.

Tonight is a very important game for our divisional hopes. For one, it gives us some hope even if we split with the Eagles. If we split and the Eagles lose to the Skins, the best they could be in the division is 4-2, and we could be 5-1. So we'd have the leg up in a tie there too.

I agree with all of that. I was responding to your statement: 'I think if the Cowboys want a chance at the division, the Skins need to win tonight.' A Sins win helps tonight, but no matter what happens, there's still a ton of football to play and a lot of different paths for the Cowboys to still win the NFCE.

Obviously, it helps us with the division leader drops a division game, though.

StarOfGlory · Oct 23, 2017

It might be better down the road if the Eagles win tonight. That puts the Skins and Giants at 0-2 in the division. I will assume that neither team will do better than 3-3 at that point. I expect us to go no worse than 4-2 in the division, so we would have division tiebreaker over both teams. I have a feeling the Eagles are not going to implode this year; it feels a lot like us last year.

Sydla · Oct 23, 2017

Idgit said:
I agree with all of that. I was responding to your statement: 'I think if the Cowboys want a chance at the division, the Skins need to win tonight.' A Sins win helps tonight, but no matter what happens, there's still a ton of football to play and a lot of different paths for the Cowboys to still win the NFCE.

Obviously, it helps us with the division leader drops a division game, though.

Then I should have said "realistic" chance at the division, they need a Skins win tonight.

Idgit · Oct 23, 2017

StarOfGlory said:
It might be better down the road if the Eagles win tonight. That puts the Skins and Giants at 0-2 in the division. I will assume that neither team will do better than 3-3 at that point. I expect us to go no worse than 4-2 in the division, so we would have division tiebreaker over both teams. I have a feeling the Eagles are not going to implode this year; it feels a lot like us last year.

Until we play them head to head, I'm not going to concede the division to them after 6 games. We still have two against he Skins, too, so in terms of our ability to affect our destiny, that evens out. We want the division leader to drop games and drop division games where they can.

If PHI is last year's DAL, they'll handle their business when they play us, anyway, so it's moot. But it's too early to concede that much to them just because they're 5-1.

Idgit · Oct 23, 2017

Sydla said:
Then I should have said "realistic" chance at the division, they need a Skins win tonight.

Even that's too strong. Lots of realistic ways we can win the division even with PHI getting a week 7 win here.

But we do agree it's a big early division game, and it really helps us out here in the middle-third of the season if the Eagles drop one they should win.

Nova · Oct 23, 2017

Idgit said:
Even that's too strong. Lots of realistic ways we can win the division even with PHI getting a week 7 win here.

But we do agree it's a big early division game, and it really helps us out here in the middle-third of the season if the Eagles drop one they should win.

I agree.

There's still a ton of time for opportunity.

Hell half of the board was in wetting themselves when we lost to the Giants last December despite us being up 2 games with 3 left to play.

Sydla · Oct 23, 2017

Idgit said:
Even that's too strong. Lots of realistic ways we can win the division even with PHI getting a week 7 win here.

But we do agree it's a big early division game, and it really helps us out here in the middle-third of the season if the Eagles drop one they should win.

Not really. If the Eagles win, the Cowboys very likely have to sweep them, which is a tall order and then also hope for the Eagles to drop as many games as we do outside the division. So there really isn't "lots" of realistic ways we can win the division. There really would be only one way................ sweep them and then don't lose more games than they do outside of our two tilts with them. I guess we could hope they just fall apart and lose like 5-6 games from here on out and we win like 8 of our last ten, but that doesn't seem realistic at this point (at least the part hoping the Eagles suddenly just start to suck).

Football Outsiders has the Eagles at a 78% chance to win the division right now. If they win tonight, that jumps into the high 80s, most likely. Which means for the Cowboys to win the division if the Eagles win tonight, it's going to take a statistically improbable set of circumstances.

Kevinicus · Oct 23, 2017

We will be 1 full game behind Washington if they win tonight, not a half game.

Clarkson · Oct 23, 2017

Kevinicus said:
We will be 1 full game behind Washington if they win tonight, not a half game.

You're right, forgot they had their bye with us last week.

Idgit · Oct 23, 2017

Sydla said:
Not really. If the Eagles win, the Cowboys very likely have to sweep them, which is a tall order and then also hope for the Eagles to drop as many games as we do outside the division. So there really isn't "lots" of realistic ways we can win the division. There really would be only one way................ sweep them and then don't lose more games than they do outside of our two tilts with them.

Football Outsiders has the Eagles at a 78% chance to win the division right now. If they win tonight, that jumps into the high 80s, most likely. Which means for the Cowboys to win the division if the Eagles win tonight, it's going to take a statistically improbable set of circumstances.

One division rival sweeping another in any given season isn't exactly unrealistic. Neither is keeping pace with them with 10 games to play, for that matter.

The Eagles could also drop a division game to the Giants, for that matter.

Or Lane Johnson goes out and Wentz turns into a pumpkin again. Or Wentz himself gets hurt, or a DC comes along and figures out how to beat them, or some distraction or other occurs and they lose their edge later in the season. Who knows what could happen? No matter what, though, divisions aren't lost after 7 games with only about half of the division game even played yet.

We're two games back with 10 to play. There are plenty of realistic scenarios for somebody other than the Eagles winning the East still. Let's just agree that it really helps if they drop a game tonight.

Which sucks, because with Norman and maybe Breeland out, PHI is in good position to sweep the Skins here.

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