I think Dez is the same guy he was in 2014

ConceptCoop · Oct 23, 2017

xwalker said:
15+ yard targets
(2016-17)
Bryant 19 of 51 (37%) 515 yd 5 td 1 int 99.7
others 35 of 60 (58%) 928 yd 9 td 0 int 142.3

target less than 15 yards
(2016-17)
Bryant 68 of 115 (59%) 740 yd 9 td 3 int 93.4
others 341 of 466 (73%) 3,194 yd 17 td 5 int 99.3

Wait. You think that means be other players are better?

Yakuza Rich · Oct 23, 2017

I wish people would get off the 'Dez runs bad routes.' Just another platitude that because the media says it makes it true. I won't mistake Dez for Steve Largent, but route running isn't the issue. He struggles with hand technique to prevent defenders from grabbing when they are hand fighting for the ball.

I don't think he's elite any longer or at least at this point, but he's a good fit for this offense. And sometimes WR's have drops in production at this time of their career and then suddenly come on stronger. But I see more dropped passes from Dez and usually awful technique comes with it which he used to never do. The drop against the Niners was a perfect example. His pinkies should almost be touching each other on that pass and they were almost a foot apart from each other and he basically gave himself no chance of catching it. Thankfully, Elliott came alive and made things easy for us.

It's time to consider a WR either in the first or 2nd round of the draft. Somebody to take over for T-Will or at least motivate T-Will and Dez. And hopefully somebody that can scare D-Coordinators deep.

YR

stilltheguru88 · Oct 24, 2017

I won’t lie, I think he lost his leaping ability as well. He used to (Moss) guys and I don’t see that anymore

Toruk_Makto · Oct 24, 2017

ConceptCoop said:
I know that's not a popular opinion and am open to being wrong. But please help me understand what has changed and where he has fallen off? He was never fast; he never ran great routes; he always had concentration drops; he was never great at creating separation. Dez is only 28 YO and doesn't rely on speed. It would be odd for him to be past his prime at this age.

The only change I see is at the QB spot. Dak--as much as I love him and think he's a stud--is more cautious and less accurate than Romo. His deep ball is more sporadic--he's missed Dez on deep balls that would have connected, coming from Tony. Dak's fade isn't all that great--and the fade route is a major strength of Dez's (and Tony's). Put more simply, the quality of target has dropped.

I've seen some argue that defenses have figured him out - but that's silly. It didn't take the NFL 5 years to realize who Dez Bryant was. They've known since day 1, they just haven't been able to stop him.

Help me understand what I'm missing. Please tell me specifically what has changed with Dez Bryant. I think he's the same guy. What makes him great is his ability to win 50/50 balls. He hasn't had as many chances with Dak, and when does get the opportunity, the balls aren't the same quality. Despite that, he's still one of the top TD scorers at the WR position.

Edit: The same reason T. Williams' production has fallen off. Remember, the guy scored 8 TDs in 2014. He was a big play machine. Last season was by far his worst.

Good post. @xwalker is furious.

River82 · Oct 24, 2017

ConceptCoop said:
Spare me the hyperbole. Here are the drop leaders for 2016. You'll need to scroll a few pages to find Dez. You'll run into Brice Bulter first, despite him getting far fewer targets.

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?...&opp=0&sort=11&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=4

"Has" is present tense, "2016" is a previous season, which means you are dodging the argument. Though considering Dez hasn't been able to catch this season it's a pretty tempting thing to do.

Toruk_Makto · Oct 24, 2017

ConceptCoop said:
Catch rate is a raw stat that needs context. Dez saw a ton awful targets in the Denver game - you can't put that all on him. Comparing his catch rate to Brice Butler's, with a sample size of 11, doesn't feel productive to me. Are you arguing that Butler's the better player?

He's being silly. Dez stole his girlfriend.

Toruk_Makto · Oct 24, 2017

xwalker said:
I think Butler might catch more than 21 of 48 passes.

Much of the claimed over-throws on the Denver were due to Dez running the route incorrectly. He cut more than 1 route off early.

You don't know that. Stop. You're embarrassing yourself.

perrykemp · Oct 24, 2017

ConceptCoop said:
Catch rate is a raw stat that needs context. Dez saw a ton awful targets in the Denver game - you can't put that all on him. Comparing his catch rate to Brice Butler's, with a sample size of 11, doesn't feel productive to me. Are you arguing that Butler's the better player?

Forget the raw catch stats from the Denver game -- I agree looking at any one game is not useful.

Look at Dez's catch % since 2014. It's taken a precipitous fall, dropping to:

2014: 43%
2015: 52%
2016: 48%

This is a mind-blowing drop of 15-23% off Dez's catch rate during his prime year, circa 2012-2014, where he averaged in the mid 60s.

That's a MASSIVE drop. The numbers indicate a statistically significant decline in performance.

Wezsh0T · Oct 24, 2017

kevm3 said:
This latest game is a result of coaching adjustments. The coaches saw him and Dez weren't really connecting on those jump balls and that most of their catches came with Dez running slants, and that's what they went to with astounding success.

I'm waiting for the tape to show DBs sitting on that slant and then unleashing a slugo.

Dez is still drawing help over the top on most plays from what I can tell.

ConceptCoop · Oct 24, 2017

perrykemp said:
Forget the raw catch stats from the Denver game -- I agree looking at any one game is not useful.

Look at Dez's catch % since 2014. It's taken a precipitous fall, dropping to:

2014: 43%
2015: 52%
2016: 48%

This is a mind-blowing drop of 15-23% off Dez's catch rate during his prime year, circa 2012-2014, where he averaged in the mid 60s.

That's a MASSIVE drop. The numbers indicate a statistically significant decline in performance.

A drop in performance between Dez and Dak. Dez AND Dak.

jrumann59 · Oct 24, 2017

xwalker said:
He got paid...

Also, he probably lost 6" on his vert.

He is good in the redzone but a liability in the other part of the field.

Before the SF game he was 21 of 48. That is a terrible catch rate for any WR.

Brice Butler was 8 of 11 in that same span and he gets the low percentage deep route passes.

It may be a terrible ratio but the target stat is dumb when used in a vacuum, are there some balls he should have had yes but there were also balls that he could not get due to errant passes.

perrykemp · Oct 24, 2017

ConceptCoop said:
A drop in performance between Dez and Dak. Dez AND Dak.

Dak Prescott has a career 66% completion rate, higher than Tony Romo's career completion percentage of 65%.

Dak has been a highly accurate QB with everyone else on this team other than Dez Bryant.

To explain away Dez Bryant's massive drop in catch % over the past 3 years and pin responsibility for it on Dak Prescott just doesn't make any logical sense.

xwalker · Oct 24, 2017

jrumann59 said:
It may be a terrible ratio but the target stat is dumb when used in a vacuum, are there some balls he should have had yes but there were also balls that he could not get due to errant passes.

Percy posted the numbers for Dez vs all other Cowboys. The Dez numbers are much worse than the others.

The Natural · Oct 24, 2017

stilltheguru88 said:
I won’t lie, I think he lost his leaping ability as well. He used to (Moss) guys and I don’t see that anymore

This is another misconception I see here. Physically Dez is as good as I think he's ever been, people dont see the super human catches week in and week out and think he's lost it. These clips are 5 years apart

As far as the mossing guys comment: not throwing the QB under the bus but there's only a handful of DBs in the league that can jump with Dez if the ball is in the right spot

xwalker · Oct 24, 2017

ConceptCoop said:
A drop in performance between Dez and Dak. Dez AND Dak.

Did Dak get here in 2014?

ConceptCoop · Oct 24, 2017

perrykemp said:
Dak Prescott has a career 66% completion rate, higher than Tony Romo's career completion percentage of 65%.

Dak has been a highly accurate QB with everyone else on this team other than Dez Bryant.

To explain away Dez Bryant's massive drop in catch % over the past 3 years and pin responsibility for it on Dak Prescott just doesn't make any logical sense.

I laid out my argument in the OP. Ironic that TWill and Dez drop of dramitically the very same year.

The offense is designed to get Dak clean, easy looks. Dez is not a guy who creates much separation. Thus, they're not on the same page yet.

ConceptCoop · Oct 24, 2017

xwalker said:
Did Dak get here in 2014?

Dez Bryant was an all-pro in 2014. In 2015, he and Romo were both hurt. In 2016, he and Dak were not on the same page.

ConceptCoop · Oct 24, 2017

Dez Bryant works on the sidelines. When Dak throws the ball away--something he does than Tony--the ball is thrown close to Dez to avoid IG. Dez is credited with a target, despite not seeing a catchable ball.

jrumann59 · Oct 24, 2017

xwalker said:
Percy posted the numbers for Dez vs all other Cowboys. The Dez numbers are much worse than the others.

The primary passing weapon getting the most targets and Dak has been a little "wild" early on in games with accuracy.

jrumann59 · Oct 24, 2017

perrykemp said:
Dak Prescott has a career 66% completion rate, higher than Tony Romo's career completion percentage of 65%.

Dak has been a highly accurate QB with everyone else on this team other than Dez Bryant.

To explain away Dez Bryant's massive drop in catch % over the past 3 years and pin responsibility for it on Dak Prescott just doesn't make any logical sense.

If you look at the first 3 games this season Dak and Dez have not been in sync, Dak has missed Dez on quite a few balls whether too high or too low. Now not all of that is on Dak either Dez has been Dez on some plays also.

I think Dez is the same guy he was in 2014

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