News: BTB: Here are the Cowboys playoff chances based on this weekend’s possible outcomes

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Do you know who you will be rooting for this weekend? Before you decide, check out these percentages.

I had this dream last night where the Cowboys got Ezekiel Elliott back and went on a tear for the rest of the regular season. The young secondary was finally healthy and making plays, Sean Lee was making 20 tackles a game, and DeMarcus Lawrence and David Irving were terrorizing quarterbacks. The team was healthy and riding hot at the right time and primed for a nice playoff run. But then suddenly I woke up in a sweat as I realized that all this may happen, only to have the Cowboys still not make the playoffs. What a terrible thing that would be.

Everyone knows the Cowboys’ backs are against the wall when it comes to their chances of making the playoffs. Some disappointing second-half let downs early in the season coupled with a three-game skid last month have really put the team behind the eight ball. Not only must the team win out, but they need a few other things to happen to get help because they are on the wrong end of most of the tie-breaker scenarios.

As it stands now, the Cowboys have a 44% chance to make the playoffs if they win the remainder of their games (source). That alone is no easy task as their three upcoming opponents are all fighting for playoff contention/seeding. Should the Cowboys drop any of their remaining games, for all intent and purposes - their playoff hopes would be squashed. That much we already know. What’s a little more challenging is trying to determine what kind of help they need to get in.

This weekend features three match-ups whose results significantly impact the Cowboys chances to make the post season - Green Bay at Carolina, Atlanta at Tampa Bay, and Chicago at Detroit. There are other games that could play a role as well, but these are the three that are most important so we will focus our attention on them. It’s easy to understand that losses to Atlanta and Detroit help the Cowboys, but what about the Green Bay/Carolina game? Who should we be rooting for in that game? And of all these games, which result would benefit the Cowboys the most?

Here are the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs (assuming they win-out) based on every possible outcome of these three games (percentages are based on the FiveThirtyEight NFL Predictions simulator):

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There are a few things to take from these numbers. The first thing to note is that we should be rooting for Green Bay to beat Carolina. If you think about it, that makes sense. The Panthers need to drop two games versus the Packers only needing one loss. The Packers finish the season against Minnesota and Detroit so they will still have a couple more opportunities to lose a game.

And while Carolina losing is what we should be rooting for, it is not the most important of these three games. The biggest help the Cowboys could receive would be Tampa Bay beating Atlanta. Should we only get one thing, that’s the biggest one. That alone will put the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs to 50% if they win out. Of course, the most optimal situation would be if Atlanta, Detroit, and Carolina would all lose this weekend. That’s not likely to happen, but any combination of two greens will be huge for Dallas down the stretch.


Which outcome are you most interested in? Do you have any specific reasoning for supporting an outcome that goes against these percentages?

Continue reading...
 

TheSkaven

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Every time Detroit and Green Bay win it lowers our chances. There are three chances left for one of them to lose now in Week 15 or 16.

If not, we’ll be practically eliminated (would need a Detroit-Green Bay tie in Week 17 to advance).
 

cej757

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I just saw Tampa Bay's injury report, Gearald McCoy, Lavonte David and Vernon Hargraves are all out on Monday Night. Atlanta ain't losing to that depleted defense. :(
 

Hawkeye19

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Every time Detroit and Green Bay win it lowers our chances. There are three chances left for one of them to lose now in Week 15 or 16.

If not, we’ll be practically eliminated (would need a Detroit-Green Bay tie in Week 17 to advance).

They play each other in week 17, so there is one loss for either GB or Det.

GB plays Minny next week— and the Vikes will be playing for HF Adv so I think they beat the Pack in that game— if GB somehow gets by the Panthers today.

Just win baby... Very good chance there is a 3 way tie somewhere that gives us an edge because of conference record
 

cowboyblue22

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when you get behind this many teams its hard to make the playoffs there are only sixteen games in a regular season when they start you have to be ready to play
 

Melonfeud

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Wonder if J.G. has kept the " Nuges" phone number on speed dialo_O
#5 was definitely not up to game speed last week,those missed points are wholly unacceptable as it stands, starting now.

That charts pretty cool;)
 

xwalker

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Every time Detroit and Green Bay win it lowers our chances. There are three chances left for one of them to lose now in Week 15 or 16.

If not, we’ll be practically eliminated (would need a Detroit-Green Bay tie in Week 17 to advance).
Not according to the chart in regards to GB.
 

TheSkaven

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Not according to the chart in regards to GB.

It's true - a Packers win today helps us because one way in is Carolina losing two of the next three. But if the Lions win out and the Packers beat Carolina, you're putting all your chips on the Vikings beating the Packers next week.
 

WillieBeamen

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What are the three team tiebreaking scenarios?

If we win out- 10-6

If Seattle loses to us but win their last game- 10-6

If Detroit wins out- 10-6

If Carolina loses one of final 3- 10-6


Who gets in in this scenario?
 

drawandstrike

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So even though Detroit won, if TB somehow gets the upset today and GB beats Carolina, the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs surge to 72% if they win their last 3 games?

Wow. I'm a huge Buccaneer fan today!
 

drawandstrike

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Doesn't it also help us today if the Rams beat the Seahawks? :huh:

And it would help if the Jets somehow manage to beat the Saints?
 
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