The 2018 Draft and Monte Carlo Simulation

Montanalo

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It is snowing like crazy and, as I have already prepared my 2017 taxes, I thought I might play around with the 2018 draft.

I love everything about the draft -- from the senior bowl to the combine and, eventually, the draft itself. Hope springs eternal every April. I especially love the debates of priority or need vs. BPA, pet cats and the identification of some obscure talent or hidden gem the Cowboys might benefit.

With this as a backdrop, I used a Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the draft...not so much as to predict who the Cowboys might select in each round but rather to understand the type of talent that might be available for selection. Did I mention it is snowing a lot?

Using the most recent Bleacher Report for prospect ranking and individual team priorities, I ran a 1000 simulations to arrive at the following:

  1. Round 1 -- DT had the highest probability of selection, followed by LB, and then OT. WR was pretty far down the list. The most commonly selected DT was Christian Wilkins followed closely by Maurice Hurst and Vita Vea
  2. Round 2 and 3 -- I grouped these two rounds together as there was a fairly even distribution between three positions: OT, WR and TE. In order, Deon Cain, Simmie Cobbs and DJ Clark were the top WR's selected in these rounds. TE was interesting with Mark Andrews, Troy Fumugali and Hayden Hurst
  3. Round 4 and 5 -- Almost regardless the team priorities, the mid-rounds were dominated by defensive positions LB, CB and DT, followed by OG

What to make of this little exercise? Not much with regard to "who" we might select. Given the assumptions on player ranking and individual team priortities, the simulation provides some early insight as to the positional strengths of the draft.
 

Verdammung

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Interesting. The positional results seem to make sense to me; it definitely seems to play out as predicted to the strengths of the draft. I'd give you a like, but I don't know if I'm allowed to yet.
 

Montanalo

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Cool. Do you have a mathematics degree.
No, Chem Eng. I used probabilistic analysis throughout my career, but acquired Monte Carlo modelling software a few years ago when I started planning for retirement - used it to look at various investment strategies.

Thanks for the post!
 

jterrell

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Very cool and a good way to identify what the draft holds.

I just mentioned in another thread I've been running a couple mocks per day using the BR list(Matt Miller who worked on free nfl/draft stuff with me a decade plus ago).

I simply couldn't find an OT to grab in any round. It was scary.

Love stuff like this. Very good info.
 

Montanalo

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I am familiar with Monte Carlo simulations, and have never seen it be applied to football. kudos.
I would be surprised if the NFL teams didn't use some form of probabilistic analysis, rather than a deterministic approach, to examine the draft.

As you are probably aware, it is a fairly common approach in the financial and business world.

Thanks for the comments
 

Montanalo

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Very cool and a good way to identify what the draft holds.

I just mentioned in another thread I've been running a couple mocks per day using the BR list(Matt Miller who worked on free nfl/draft stuff with me a decade plus ago).

I simply couldn't find an OT to grab in any round. It was scary.

Love stuff like this. Very good info.
It seems that if you don't grab an OT in the first couple of rounds, then you are looking at developmental-type players in the mid- to late-rounds. Not necessarily someone I would feel immediately comfortable with as the back-up to Smith.
 

iceberg

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It is snowing like crazy and, as I have already prepared my 2017 taxes, I thought I might play around with the 2018 draft.

I love everything about the draft -- from the senior bowl to the combine and, eventually, the draft itself. Hope springs eternal every April. I especially love the debates of priority or need vs. BPA, pet cats and the identification of some obscure talent or hidden gem the Cowboys might benefit.

With this as a backdrop, I used a Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the draft...not so much as to predict who the Cowboys might select in each round but rather to understand the type of talent that might be available for selection. Did I mention it is snowing a lot?

Using the most recent Bleacher Report for prospect ranking and individual team priorities, I ran a 1000 simulations to arrive at the following:

  1. Round 1 -- DT had the highest probability of selection, followed by LB, and then OT. WR was pretty far down the list. The most commonly selected DT was Christian Wilkins followed closely by Maurice Hurst and Vita Vea
  2. Round 2 and 3 -- I grouped these two rounds together as there was a fairly even distribution between three positions: OT, WR and TE. In order, Deon Cain, Simmie Cobbs and DJ Clark were the top WR's selected in these rounds. TE was interesting with Mark Andrews, Troy Fumugali and Hayden Hurst
  3. Round 4 and 5 -- Almost regardless the team priorities, the mid-rounds were dominated by defensive positions LB, CB and DT, followed by OG

What to make of this little exercise? Not much with regard to "who" we might select. Given the assumptions on player ranking and individual team priortities, the simulation provides some early insight as to the positional strengths of the draft.
vita vea sounds like a shark tank proposal. :)
 

lkelly

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Where was Art Schlichter drafted in the Monte Carlo simulation?
 

Whyjerry

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I do not have an algorithm but my brain and nearly 40 years of fandom says that DT, LB, WR, S need to be the focus. I would also go OG, OT as projects. DT, LB, ad WR need to be early picks because Dallas has a need for guys to step into those positions immediately. When I say DT I mean a 1 Tech monster like Vita Vea that allows Collins to move to 3 T. The 5 picks they have in rounds 4/5 should OL and S projects. Draft 3 OL and 2 S and hope 2/3 can stick. The rest of the draft should be skill guy projects with SPEED as the offense has been devoid of speed for years. Woods and Frazier are my starting S next year. Save Byron Jones by making him a slot corner. Look to FA to get a vet LB and WR.

That'll work.
 
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